The tenor tonight was different right off the bat (literally). The Dodgers put the intimidating Clayton Kershaw on the mound to slam the door on the Padres hopes of stealing one in Chavez Ravine. But in the first inning Kershaw had to face down the NL’s most valuable player Manny Machado:
The Padres took the 1-0 lead into the bottom half and immediately faced the adversity that underdogs so often do when up against large market media darling franchises. The expected narrative of the night was that the Dodgers were inevitable. The human brain is a prediction engine heavily influenced by expectation. After Yu Darvish mowed down Mookie Betts and Trea Turner, Darvish threw a filthy tailing fastball across the inside corner to Freddie Freeman to make the count 0-2. Except home plate umpire Chris Segal inexplicably called it a ball. The expected narrative proved too powerful for Chris Segal to believe his own eyes. The gift to Freeman and the Dodgers resulting in a 1-1 count decidedly changed the momentum of the at bat and two pitches later a 3-1 count forced Yu to venture a pitch over the plate which Freeman smashed just over Grisham’s full extension reach to clear the center field wall for a game tying home run. The unfathomable missed call in the first inning was only a harbinger of was to come in one of the most one-sided officiating games in major league history.
The second inning was gut wrenching. In the top half the Padres got back to back one out singles from Myers and Profar, who both moved up a base on a wild pitch giving Grisham a major RBI chance. But Kershaw dug deep, showing his hall of fame form by striking out Grisham and then Nola on unhittable offspeed offerings. An all too familiar feeling set in as the Padres left two runners in scoring position:
More adversity hit in the bottom of the second when Darvish threw a perfect strike 3 on a biting curve that fooled Muncy. It fooled Chris Segal as well, though, and Muncy was given new life as Segal called it a ball. Muncy took advantage of the new life given to him by the missed call and homered later in the at bat, giving the Dodgers a 2-1 lead.
Usually bad calls are close enough that there is disagreement about whether the call was missed or not. This was not the case as Segal’s second miss earned universal critique. Even Dodgers media referred to it as a “Crazy Missed Call”. Here’s the statcast, judge for yourself:
The normally laconic Darvish asked the umpire animatedly how, in Segal’s estimation, the pitch had missed the strike zone. Watch from the 1:23 mark of the full highlights to see the live action:
This is the point where the wheels could have come off. The Padres had relinquished an early lead, been gutted by horrendous calls, and reverted to Padresing with back to back high leverage K’s with runners on base, all before the third inning. But that is not what this Padres team is about.
In the top of the third Kim beat out an infield single, Soto raked a pitch into right for another single putting two on for the most valuable player in the National League:
Manny came through again, lacing a double down the left field line plating Kim and tying the game. Machado had once again gotten the best of the hall of famer Kershaw when it mattered most. With runners on second and third and no outs Brandon Drury K’d. Crone followed and was able to plate 1 with a productive RBI groundout. Will Meyers sought to break things open with 2 outs and smoked a deep drive to right field, but the Dodgers outfield was positioned perfectly and the scorching line drive became the third out. While the inning could have been bigger, the Padres plating a run with a productive out bucked a season long trend of wasting opportunities with RISP. They now had the lead 3-2. This was not the preferred narrative.
In the bottom of the third, after a Betts popout, Trea Turner continued to be the hottest hitter in major league baseball sending a no-doubt home run to left after Darvish left a hanging slider over the plate. Segal was in the clear on this one, it was just an elite hitter adding even more proof that Mike Rizzo is an unserious GM. But Darvish fought back to punch out Freeman and overpower Will Smith into a foul out quickly ending any notion of a Dodger rally. The Dodgers had tied it 3-3.
In the 4th the Dodgers put two runners on with one out and the media world smiled as the preferred narrative seemed to be taking shape. But Darvish was having none of it and punched out Trayce Thompson and Cody Bellinger to strand the runners and end the inning.
The Dodgers threatened again to start the bottom of the 5th. Mookie Betts walked to open, and the entire Dodgers fan base waited breathlessly as the venerable base stealer took his lead off first. Darvish famously struggles with keeping runners on, and battery mate Nola notoriously can’t throw out his own mama (citation needed). When Darvish dealt to the plate Betts took off for second:
The preferred narrative started to show some cracks. The Padres weren’t rolling over, and weren’t an inferior team. This was quintessential postseason baseball drama. Players digging deep and finding a new level of competitive fire. In this moment it was clear that the regular season was over and the Dodgers 111 wins meant nothing. It was a new season and the Dodgers were meeting their match. But something else happened too. The Dodgers challenged the call. All Padres fans know that dreaded feeling when an opposing team challenges a play, having been victimized by an incompetent process multiple times through the regular season (Drury “out” at home, Nola “blocking” the plate, etc. ad infinitum). But again, this isn’t the regular season, and the regular season result didn’t occur. The umpires upheld the call that Betts was out, and the preferred narrative started to split down the middle.
The Padres started the sixth with a Drury single and Crone reaching on a fielder’s choice. With one out Myers rolled a grounder towards short stop that looked like it could be a double play ball, but in his haste Turner booted it and both runners were safe. The error put two on with one out and Profar up to bat late in an important game. This is when the Padresing happened during the regular season. The feckless strikeouts, the unproductive popups and infield ground balls. This is not the regular season. Profar hit a hard chopping grounder that made its way into right field for a single plating Crone and giving the Padres a 4-3 lead. The inning could have been worse for the Dodgers. Grish laid down a squeeze bunt to try to get Myers home from third, but Brusdar Graterol made one of the best plays you’ll ever see from a reliever to prevent another run from scoring:
You just tip your cap after that one. That is -elite- defense.
The Padres were still absolutely battling and Austin Nola nearly broke through with a deep rifle shot to center that took Cody Bellinger everything he had to track down for the third out (4:43 mark of the full highlights).
The Dodgers escaped, but the Padres once again had the lead in Los Angeles.
Darvish came out for the sixth and Will Smith led off with an infield single. Darvish stayed in the game to face the red hot Muncy for a third time and Muncy made him pay with a line drive deep to right field that Soto played perfectly keeping it to a single, but the D*dgers had first and third and no outs. There would be no Sleepy Bob Melvin this night, BoMel immediately made the switch replacing Darvish with Robert Suarez. Suarez faced down Justin Turner with two runners on in the highest leverage moment of the 31 year old rookie’s career, and absolutely brought it:
Suarez wasn’t done. The talented Gavin Lux stepped up for the Dodgers with the tying run on third, and what ensued was undoubtedly the play of the game (and series):
The preferred narrative came apart completely after this. The moment was huge in real time. The flip from Crone to Kim was a masterclass in second base dexterity. You can see in the body language that Kim knew this was the defining moment of the game as he wound up for a little extra juice on the throw to first and aimed it perfectly into the outstretched glove of Wil Myers who caught the throw a half step before Lux reached the bag. This was virtuoso baseball.
The Disney+ script for Bobby Suarez got a little more drama as he stayed in to pitch the seventh. Trayce Thompson flied out to open the frame, but Bellinger then singled and the relentless Mookie Betts Doubled putting runners on second and third with the incandescent Treat Turner stepping up. Bob Melvin is known for showing unwavering faith in his players and that was on display as Suarez was allowed to remain in the game to attempt the 6 out hold. He faced down Trea Turner and induced a hard groundout to third base. Bellinger wasn’t able to score. Supervillain Freddie Freeman was intentionally walked to bring up the cleanup hitter Will Smith with two outs and the bases loaded. Suarez remained in the game and battled Smith to a 2-2. On the fifth pitch of the at bat Smith placed a good swing on a fastball but his line drive to center was tracked down by the gold glover Trent Grisham ending the inning, stranding the bases loaded, and deflating the Dodgers fanbase, some of whom were seen leaving the stands, opting to try to beat traffic rather than stick out a game they’d felt entitled to win.
The Padres held a one run lead heading to the eighth to face the former closer Blake Treinen. Cronenworth put an exclamation point on the night with the biggest home run of his career:
Jake was right to watch this one sail. It was a Howitzer shot. Manny and Ha-Seong’s reaction from the dugout was everyone in the Padres fandom. Jake’s emotion was on display as he trotted up the first base line shouting to his teammates.
This was a tide turning moment. This was not supposed to happen. The narrative was the Dodgers invincibility and inevitability, and it wasn’t happening. Mavens had ignored all the evidence from game 1 insisting the Dodgers had simply handled business when in fact they had Dodged a bullet.
The Padres led by two entering the bottom of the eighth when things frankly got weird. A black bird flew into the middle of the field and settled into the outfield behind second base.
Bizarrely, play continued and Gavin Lux singled off Nick Martinez with two outs, prompting BoMel to call in Hader to attempt the four out save.
The LA ground crew took advantage of the moment to wrangle the bird, carrying it away as play commenced. The incident was so bizarre, including the frantic attempts to identify what type of bird it was. Some saw a duck, others thought it a goose. As we watched the unreal episode unfold the image that came to mind was a black swan, along with the term’s other meaning: an unpredictable event that is not what is typically expected of a situation and has far reaching consequences. The Padres were beating the Dodgers in LA, in October, after a regular season that saw the Dodgers put up the greatest performance of any modern era team. The preferred narrative of Dodgers invincibility was dead.
Hader came in and worked an inning and a third throwing smoke. To the Dodgers credit they didn’t completely roll over. Trayce Thompson drew a walk in the eighth, and Freeman somehow squared up a 99 mph fastball at his eyes for a ninth inning double, but the Dodgers didn’t plate any, and Hader got the four out save.
The Padres won game 2 of the NLDS and secured a split of the games in LA. This is an outcome no one outside the Padres faithful predicted. The game was an instant classic. We should start considering whether it was the most interesting game in Padres history.
The Dodgers remain a daunting opponent with an unrivaled collection of players. We should remember, though, that the Dodgers regular season success came in part due to historically great starting pitching depth which doesn’t matter in the playoffs. Across 162 games you can build up a huge lead in the standings when your 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th starters are all good enough to be a number 1 or 2 starter on a regular team. That is one of the ways the Dodgers ran up such a gaudy win total and run differential during the regular season. But in the playoffs that sort of depth largely doesn’t matter: series are decided by the team’s best 3 pitchers. We were forced to start Clev in game 1 because of the woeful playoff schedule. But from here on out it is nothing but aces. And as top of the rotation pitching goes the Padres can go toe to toe with the Dodgers. The series is now a best of 3, with the next two games at home in Petco. The Dodgers have to beat one of Snell or Musgrove at Petco to stay alive. There is good reason for the Dodgers to feel nervous. LFGSD.