Bullet Riddled Shoes

A loss of losses

Classic wins are more fun to re-live, but what transpired Monday night is destined to be part of Padres lore. The Padres were fresh from a three game sweep of the best team in the American League, and poised to face the worst team in the National League. Just before facing off against the Rockies the Padres were given a gift when noted Padres assassins CJ Cron and Randal Grichuk were traded to the Angels. The Padres had a chance to secure their first four game winning streak of the season against a gutted Rockies lineup. But Coors field is a chaos realm.

The game was delayed for over two hours due to deafening lightning storms and heavy rains. When the game finally got underway at 9 pm it appeared the rain was actually heavier than during the delay. Nonetheless the teams took the field.

Austin Gomber started for the Rockies, with his 5.83 ERA on the season. Naturally Old Hoss Gomber shut the Padres down allowing only 2 runs and pitching into the 7th for only the second time all year. The Padres threatened along the way. In the top of the third Matt Batten singled up the middle with one out, he was bunted to second by Grisham, and Ha-Seong Kim walked to put two on for Fernando Tatis Jr who hit a 109.8 MPH liner that left a vapor trail as it travelled into the glove of a sprinting Brenton Doyle who made a fantastic catch to save two runs and end the inning.

The Padres showed their virtuoso defense in the bottom half. After Elehuris Montero singled, Manny Machado fielded a bouncer from Doyle and turned a smooth double play killing any chance of a rally:

Courtesy @TalkingFriars.

In the fourth with Juan Soto on second and Manny at first with no outs, it seemed like the Padres had something going. But Xander Bogaerts grounded into a double play. Soto moved to third on the play setting up Jake Cronenworth with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position. The Padres dreadful performance in these situations has been a defining feature of the season. Last month we outlined one cause: Padres hitters, Crone in particular, are trying to hit the ball to the moon when a single would suffice. Monday saw improvement:

Courtesy @TalkingFriars

Cronenworth is really trying to improve his hitting, and it’s clear he’s making adjustments. He came through on Monday and gave the Padres a 1-0 lead after four innings.

The bottom of the fourth started with an Ezequiel Tovar walk. But Seth Lugo struck out Ryan McMahon, which setup this masterclass:

Courtesy @TooMuchMortons_

This is the best defensive third baseman in baseball showing why he’s the best. Unhurried, on balance, perfect transfer and perfect throw. Most third basemen go to first on this play setting up an RBI situation. Instead Machado’s defense helped end the inning.

Matters took their first wrong turn in the bottom of the fifth. Brendan Rodgers led off with a single. Lugo got Michael Toglia to bounce a weak comebacker to the mound that looked like a double play ball. Lugo fielded the ball and threw to Bogaerts at second to start the double play. The throw was on time. But it bounced off Bogaerts’ glove. Both runners were safe. Bogaerts may have had a momentary lapse in concentration with the throw taking him towards the path of the runner. He probably catches that ball 98% of the time, just not this time. One batter later Montero doubled to center. Grisham misplayed the ball as he tried to scoop it and it got past him. The second error of the inning allowed the second runner to score. The Padres lead was gone. They now trailed. Lugo got the next two outs, but the damage was done.

Soto singled to start the sixth. With one out, Bogaerts came up to try to make up for his error the prior inning, but instead hit into his second double play of the night, and his NL leading 15th of the season.

In the bottom of the sixth Lugo made one mistake to up and coming Padre killer McMahon who homered to right giving the Rockies a 3-1 lead.

Cronenworth led off the seventh with another opposite field line drive that got to the wall. He beat a very close throw to third for a triple. Matt Batten would drive in Cronenworth with a single (his third of the game) to bring the Padres within a run.

Lugo would pitch out of a jam in the seventh as the rain poured down. He threw the pitch of the night with two outs on a 3-2 count to Profar with runners on first and second, a bullseye four-seam fastball that caught the low inside corner for strike three. He ended the night with 7 innings pitched, 2 earned runs (3 total), and 9 strikeouts. Playing on the road in Coors, that’s a gem. Lugo has been a real bright spot. And he showed off some length, absorbing innings on a day when Suarez and Hader were both unavailable.

Tatis started the top of the eighth with a screaming line out to right. It was his third hit of the night over 104 MPH, and his second hit of the night with an expected batting average over .700. It ended up being his third hard hit out of the night:

Some have been saying Tatis is in a slump. This is true in the outcome sense; he is 7 of 43 since the Detroit series. But he’s also been scalding the ball, including a surefire homerun that mysteriously didn’t leave the yard Wednesday. His recent ‘struggles’ seem like the upper right of this matrix:

With one out in the eighth Soto managed a walk. Machado also walked putting the tying run on first. Bogaerts came to the plate next. Amidst one of the most disastrous games of his career he found himself with a chance for redemption. On the third pitch of the at bat he drove a sharp line drive single into center. Words can’t do justice to what transpired next:

Courtesy @TalkinBaseball_

That’s being thrown out by a country mile. On replay you can see Soto initially had to freeze on Bogaerts’ line drive to see if it would get through. Once the ball was through Soto raced to third, but by that time the center fielder had the ball. For some reason third base coach Matt Williams gave Soto the green light to round third and attempt to score. Here’s a still of the play. The catcher has the ball and is waiting for Soto, who is not even in the frame yet

This is the most inexplicable send we can remember witnessing at any level of baseball. The Padres made a half-hearted appeal to overturn the play for the catcher blocking the lane. Given the calls that have gone against the Padres earlier this season it understandable they might try, but there was never any chance this would be overturned. The baserunning error added to Bogaerts’ all-time worst outing as now even his hit with a runner in scoring position had led to a Padres disaster.

The score remained 3-2 into the ninth and the Rockies brought in their closer, right hander Justin Lawrence. Lawrenced induced feeble popups from Sanchez and Batten for the first two outs. Trent Grisham was the last hope. Normally a left handed batter against a right handed pitcher is an advantage. But Grisham is interesting; he has reverse platoon splits:

He’s the rare left handed hitter that hits left handed pitchers better. This trend isn’t just 2023, it’s been his career tendency across nearly 2000 plate appearances:

Lawrence being a RHP was actually an advantage for the Rockies. Nonetheless, the Padres elected to let Grish hit, their hopes down to this. Thankfully Grish has a flare for the dramatic:

Courtesy @Padres

This is one of the biggest clutch hits of the season. This was a palate cleanser. After the tragic events all evening, it was suddenly a new game, a chance at redemption.

The top of the tenth started with Tatis at second base. Soto surprisingly dropped a first pitch bunt down the third base line, the bunt single advancing Tatis to third. Machado then squeaked an infield single up the third base line. Tatis had to hold up at third, but the hit loaded the bases with Xander Bogaerts coming to the plate. The weight of the moment could not be missed. It seemed a chance at absolution had arrived. The Padres were an unthinkable 0-9 in extra innings this year. They had not won four consecutive games either. And they had not hit a grand slam all season. They had a chance to change all of that, to change everything, with one swing. But Bogaerts sealed the game as his worst ever by grounding into a fielder’s choice, Tatis being forced out at home. Cronenworth came up next, and to his credit he wasn’t swinging for the moon. He took a short swing at a sinker up-and-in but lined it directly to the shortstop for out number two. Sanchez would ground out to third. They failed to score. It was a remarkable feat.

Literally Unclutch

The bottom of the 10th began with a mystifying play. Doyle attempted to bunt the Manfred man to third, but he dropped the bunt too close to home plate and Gary Sanchez was able to field it cleanly and fire a dart to Machado at third base who easily caught the ball and tagged out Montero. Yet, after the play concluded, as Machado reached into his glove to retrieve the ball, he found it empty:

Machado Error: Courtesy @TalkingFriars

Somehow during the tag the ball had come loose. Watching the play in slow motion it’s hard to understand why. It’s like an invisible hand reached into his glove, stealthily, without his noticing, and plucked the ball from his grasp. Watching the replay, you can tell Machado doesn’t realize that he’s dropped the ball until he reaches into his glove. His surprise is evident. He didn’t clutch the ball tightly enough. Both runners were safe.

Profar would walk to load the bases. Tovar came up next and hit a weak grounder in front of home plate that looked to be an easy 1-2-3 double play ball, but Tovar had shattered his bat and Nick Martinez was forced to evade the sawed off barrel hurling towards him before fielding the ball. This delay left Martinez with only the force out at home, which meant McMahon would bat with the bases loaded and only one out. Had Martinez been able to field the ball cleanly it is likely that he would have faced McMahon with runners on second and third and two outs. This proved to be the difference.

Here was the hit that finally decided the Rockies were the better team:

Courtesy @TalkingFriars

This was a single loss that felt like a thousand. This was the game of the year so far. This was the highest leverage game yet, against the weakest opponent yet, and the Padres identified heretofore unmined depths of losing baseball. Yet you can’t watch this game without feeling that the Padres were clearly the better team. They outhit the Rockies 12-5, but they committed three errors each of which cost them dearly, a woeful irony for a team who’s strength is defense. While the game seemed like an improbable outlier their season has had a constant theme:

This game needs to be remembered, regardless of how the season turns out. All the chaos of baseball was on display. It was as if amidst the raging storm above the stadium an invisible force was pressing down on the Padres, preventing them from rising to the moment. The wounds they suffered were self inflicted; they shot themselves in the foot again, and again, and again. Yet in emerging from the maelstrom the Padres are still alive. They can lose 17 more games before it’s likely they will miss the playoffs. Their shoes couldn’t be more riddled with bullets. But they’re not dead yet.