Early Returns
Data-light observations on the mixed bag that was the first series of 2023
The Padres are 2 and 2, tied for the top record in the NL West with most of the division. They own a 14-16 run differential. Four games is too small a sample for most statistical categories to normalize so here we’ll focus on observations that are most likely to show some revealed truth.
Xander Bogaerts’ power will play at Petco
Bogaerts finished the first series of the year with two home runs that travelled 417 and 414 feet to left field. Both were absolute no doubters, a home run in 30/30 ballparks according to Would it Dong?
What’s curious is that Baseball Savant had an expected BA for these hits of .990 and .940 respectively. Hard to reconcile their methodologies. Regardless, Bogaerts’ performance is enough to dispel the idea that he needs a short porch to rack up HR totals.
Catcher could be a position of strength
Heading into the season the catcher position was felt to be a potential weak spot. Spring training involved earnest looks at Pedro Severino and Brett Sullivan as anxieties about depth at receiver manifested. Luis Campusano responded with a strong spring, and in his first start of the season ended at bats with exit velocities of 98.7, 107.6, and 99.6 before striking out in his last at bat. He wasn’t overmatched at the plate. His pitch framing was as advertised. Nola has shown to be an adequate backstop for a team with championship aspirations. He sets a reasonably high floor for what the Padres can expect from the catcher position. If Campusano progresses on offense, the team’s ceiling could be raised.
First Base will not be a defensive liability
Jake Cronenworth has already made 3 noteworthy plays at first base that warrant recognition. In Friday’s game Nola fielded a dribbler off the bat of Ryan McMahaon with runners on first and second, he alertly threw to Machado at third who tagged the bag and gunned a throw to first that came up short, but Crone picked the throw out of the dirt to complete the 2-5-3 double play. The next night Charlie Blackmon hit a sinking fly ball to right that David Dahl caught on the run and fired a throw to first where Kris Bryant appeared to be caught too far off the bag. The throw was again short, but Crone picked the short hop with aplomb to complete the rare 9-3 double play. We’re used to Crone adroitly handling wicked short hops off screaming line drives at second. He’s now tasked with picking short hops off of throws travelling considerably slower than liners off the bat, and with a much larger glove. We can expect Crone will excel in this aspect of the position in stark contrast to certain predecessors. Finally, on Sunday there was a play remarkable for how unremarkable it was. In the top of the 7th Elehuris Montero rolled over Seth Lugo’s slider hitting a slow roller into the no-man’s land between the mound, first, and second. Cronenworth cruised to the grounder smoothly, calling off Lugo before he’d made even a few steps to cover first, scooped the grounder in one fluid motion and trotted to first to tag the bag well before the runner even threatened beating it out. This is the type of play that exceptional fielders make look mundane, but the less competent first baseman would field by going to one knee, then forcing a throw to the pitcher jogging to cover the first base bag. So long as Cronenworth mans first base the Padres are going to have at least a marginal defensive upgrade at the position. It would be fair to wonder if the team has ever had a first baseman with more range.
Trent Grisham has made adjustments to his approach
Trent Grisham is swinging more. Last season Trent saw 2219 pitches over 524 PA, averaging 4.24 pitches per plate appearance. This season Trent has seen 53 pitches over 15 PA, averaging 3.53 pitches per plate appearance. This data may ultimately regress to his previous averages but it feels as though a deliberate change has been made to his approach, trying to unlock more of the power that’s been on display but so often foreclosed on by excessive taking of pitches in prior seasons. Bob Melvin has commented that Grish trying to put the ball in play more, and we expect this to be a season long trend.
Positive offensive regression is coming
In 2022 with a deeply inferior lineup much of the season the Padres averaged 4.35 R/G on offense. Through 4 games this year they are at 3.5 R/G, a figure that will absolutely regress positively. Juan Soto has 1 hit through 16 plate appearances. That is unlikely to continue. Manny Machado has no extra base hits through 4 games. That is unlikely to continue. The 2022 Padres played the whole season without Fernando Tatis. That might be different this year.
Positive pitching regression is coming
The first series of the season finished without either of the Padres’ top two starters setting foot on the field. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove will pitch in the upcoming weeks and the Padres will be beneficiaries of positive starting pitching regression after a very rough first 3 games (before Lugo locked things down Sunday).
It’s fair to summarize the opening series of the season as a slight disappointment with clear underperformance on offense relative to what should be expected. But the Padres emerged with a 2-2 record, tied with the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. When playing below your capabilities, and being terrorized by foes such as CJ Ruth, Charlie Mantle, and Cy-le Freeland, such an outcome can be seen as encouraging (it could’ve been worse!). Nonetheless, we’re hoping for much better as the second series of the season begins.