Hold On To Your Butts
Life will find a way... but will the Padres?
Nothing has gone as expected since the wildest trade deadline in Padres history. The curse of the Padres added it’s cruelest chapter. After inexplicable career worst slumps from deadline acquisitions Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Josh Hader, it felt like another chapter was being written in front of our eyes but this past week all three are returning to form and the Padres are 4-0 in the angry Bob Melvin era.
The race for the final two playoff spots is now down to three teams: The Phillies, the Brewers, and the Padres, and the Padres are in pole position. As of Tuesday night the Padres hold a 1.5 game lead over the Phillies and a 4 game lead over the Brewers with just over two weeks left in the season. There is reason to be optimistic but nothing is guaranteed yet.
The Padres and Brewers each have 14 games left, while the Phillies have 15. The Brewers would lose tiebreakers to both the Padres and Phillies, but have the weakest remaining strength of schedule at .457. The Padres have the hardest strength of schedule at .538 including 3 games against the ludicrously stacked D*dgers, 3 against their division rivals the Giants and the Rockies, and 2 more against their interdivision nemesis the Cardinals. The Phillies have 15 games at a .514 strength of schedule split between 8 games against juggernauts (Astros, Blue Jays, Braves) and 7 games against the listless Nationals and Cubs. The Phillies would win tiebreakers against both the Padres and Brewers.
Padres fans will remember years of the team playing down to the competition. If the Padres allow their opponents to achieve the .538 winning percentage over the final 14 games that predicts a record of ~6 and 8 (if we round pessimistically). Is that good enough to get in? If the Phillies finish the season 8 and 7 or better they would finish ahead of the Padres. This scenario feels hauntingly possible. But the Padres only need to beat out one of the Phillies and Brewers, and the climb for the Brewers to outpace the Padres is much steeper.
Because the Padres would win a tiebreaker against the Brewers, the Brewers will need to finish a full game ahead of the Padres in the final standings, which means they would need to gain 5 games on the Padres over the next 14. If the Padres go 6 and 8, the Brewers would need to go 11 and 3. If the Padres go 5 and 9, the Brewers would need to go 10 and 4. If the Padres can split the final 14 games and go 7 and 7, the Brewers would need to go 12 and 2 in order to grab the final Wild Card spot from the Padres. The Brewers have previously foiled the Padres’ postseason ambitions in biblical fashion, but if the Padres can play .500 baseball to close out the season it will take a small miracle for the Brewers to catch them.
But this is the Padres. Their rivals experience small miracles all the time. Could the Padres split the next two against the Cardinals, get swept by the D*dgers, and take only one game from the Giants and Rockies series’ to finish 3 and 11? You know the answer. The Brewers .457 strength of schedule predicts about an 8 and 6 finish to the season, which would be one game ahead of the Padres in this nightmare scenario.
These final weeks of the season are going to be a fun and anxiety provoking adventure. Each Padres win transcendent jubilation, each Brewers loss sublime. Each Padres loss bereavement, each Brewers win anhedonic despair. We know A.J. is buckled up, xannies in hand, ready to find out if his unconventional master plan will see the team through the final gauntlet of the wildest season in Padres memory. We’ll be keeping the faith on this white knuckle ride. It’s do or die time. Hold on to your butts.