It's Never Early

Every Game Counts

The second week of the baseball season saw the Padres reach an 8-2 record which, incredibly, is good for 3rd place in the division. It is also tied for the 3rd best record in baseball:

The Padres followed up back to back sweeps against the Braves and Guardians with a three game away series in Chicago against the Cubs. And here, one of the likely season long challenges reared its head.

Game 1

Game one saw Randy Vasquez take the mound against Cubs ace Shota Imanga. Vasquez struggled mightily in the first inning, giving up a leadoff single, and after recording the first two outs, issuing three straight base on balls to walk in a run. He narrowly escaped disaster by retiring Pete Crow-Armstrong with the bases loaded to end the inning. He managed to keep the Cubs from scoring for the next three innings, and he nearly made it out of the fifth inning when he threw a perfect pitch with two outs and a 3-2 count to Kyle Tucker:

This is likely to be a strike in 2026 with the inevitable automated ball-strike system implemented. But in 2025 the pitch was too perfect and the umpire missed the call:

Still, the final box score belies Vasquez’s struggles in what was ultimately an ineffective outing. A few things stand out in his Statcast game summary. First, he had a really hard time throwing strikes, only 43% of his pitches were in the Strike Zone. Second, Cubs hitters made contact with 100% of the pitches they swung at that were in the strike zone:

Overall Vasquez only got four whiffs the entire day, and gave up an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH, a mark sure to rank near the bottom of the league if it keeps up.

It was Vasquez’ second straight outing with only four whiffs total. There’s a lot of luck in baseball, and Vasquez’s ERA sits at 1.69 on the season. But there’s almost no reason to think that will continue. The Cubs took game one 3-1.

Game 2

Nick Pivetta made his second start of the season in game two and also appeared to struggle with control, throwing only 49% of pitches in the strike zone, and laboring for three innings in which he made 76 pitches and gave up six hits and three walks allowing three earned runs. Pivetta is coming off back-to-back seasons in which he put up stellar strikeout numbers and generally kept runners off base despite playing in Fenway Park which has been the second best hitters’ park in baseball behind Coors Field each of the past five seasons. Pivetta is likely a better pitcher than his performance Saturday suggested. The Padres seemed to concede game two after falling behind early, ultimately pulling Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. from the game and giving bullpen mop up duty to Omar Cruz, Alek Jacob, and Wandy Peralta. The Cubs won game two 7-1.

Game 3

Game three had an even more inauspicious beginning as Kyle Hart could not complete the first inning. He gave up five earned runs on four walks, two hits, and didn’t record a strikeout. In fact he didn’t record a single whiff on 39 pitches:

You get the sense that Hart was struggling with the mental game. He’s fresh off a season in the KBO in which he struck out 182 hitters in 157 innings pitched with a 4.79 strikeout/walk ratio. The KBO features lesser competition, but still, those are numbers that can’t be reached unless a pitcher is capable of throwing strikes. And by contrast Hart threw only 9 of his 39 pitches in the strike zone on Sunday. There’s no question he’s capable of showing better command. The question is whether he’s struggling with big league jitters, or whether he doesn’t have the confidence to pitch in the zone to MLB hitters. Neither explanation portends well. In Hart’s first outing against Cleveland he did manage to locate 53% of his pitches in the strike zone, but also gave up an average exit velocity of 91.6 MPH. It’s too early to close the book on Hart, but Sunday was a clear step backwards.

Logan Gillaspie was brought in to pitch long relief and was promptly called for two balks which accounted for two of the Cubs five runs in the first. It was an extremely sloppy outing. Gillaspie was not effective but did throw strikes. Gillaspie would give up two more runs over four more innings. Gillaspie is not going to be more than a long relief arm, but soaking up innings does provide value.

The story on Sunday was the Padres offense which was trailing 7-3 after the first two innings, but clawed back starting with a remarkable at bat from Jackson Merrill in the top of the 4th. It’s actually the sequence leading up to Merrill’s 4th inning at bat that deserves some showcasing. Although the Padres had scored three runs in the top of the first, Merrill had struggled in his first at bat against Cubs starter Ben Brown striking out on three pitches with the bases loaded and no outs:

What’s interesting is Brown threw Merrill the same knuckle curveball three times in a row, and Merrill didn’t see it well, fouling off the first pitch way out in front, then whiffing badly on the next two offerings.

Merrill faced Brown again in the top of the second and once again struck out on three pitches only this time it was fastball, changeup, fastball. And you can really tell something about Merrill’s approach from this at bat:

Brown’s first offering was a 96 MPH fastball on the outer half that froze Merrill. But what’s really telling about this at bat is the second pitch, a changeup that Merrill stayed back on, but had to stretch to expand the zone as it tailed away from him. He ended up slightly late on it. Brown throws a hard changeup and this one came it at 92.8 MPH, but still, a hitter is rarely late on a changeup unless he’s looking for something else. The third pitch of the at bat was another 96 MPH fastball up in the zone that Merrill was again late on for strike three. He didn’t get the pitch he was looking for.

Merrill’s third at bat against Brown came in the top of the 4th with Machado on first after reaching on a single. Brown’s first pitch was an uncompetitive knuckle curve that missed way out of the zone high. But the second pitch was what Merrill had been hunting since getting fooled badly in the first inning:

Brown threw another knuckle curve, this time in the zone, and Merrill timed it up perfectly, crushing his third home run of the season. It’s often said that good hitters make adjustments. But it might be more accurate to say good hitters make good decisions. After getting fooled so badly on the same pitch three times in the first inning, it was a near certainty Merrill was going to see that pitch again later in the game. It really looks like he went up to his second at bat hunting that pitch, to his detriment that go around when Brown gave him the fastball-changeup-fastball combo and he was late. But Merrill didn’t adjust away from his strategy the third time up, and when he finally got the pitch he was looking for he didn’t miss. Merrill is a special hitter. The home run brought the score to 7-5.

The Padres would scrape across another run in the top of the 5th after back-to-back walks to Elias Diaz and Tatis followed by an RBI single from Luis Arraez to bring the score to 7-6.

Gillaspie would open the 5th and record the first two outs, thanks in part to this play:

This is Manny Machado’s signature play. A second angle shows the ridiculous degree of difficulty:

Luis Arraez did well stretching for the ball while staying on the bag to complete the play.

Gillaspie would give up an infield single to Nico Hoerner bringing his day to an end. With the score close the Padres brought in their top end bullpen arms for the first time all series with Adrian Morejon relieving Gillaspie and finishing the 5th and 6th innings with no runs allowed. Jeremiah Estrada would pitch a scoreless 7th.

In the top of the 8th Jackson Merrill led off with a walk and stole second base. Gavin Sheets came up with two outs and the tying run on second. Sheets has had several big moments early in the season and has showcased elite bat speed, up to 86.1 MPH. The highest of any Padre this season. But he’s also had several at bats where he’s taken measured swings that still generate decent bat speed, this would be one such at bat:

That was very smooth 73.3 MPH swing, demonstrating outstanding concentration at the point of contact. You can see the motion blur of his arms and the bat, but his head is perfectly still and eyes locked on the point of contact:

Sheets is a former high draft pick who languished on the moribund White Sox his first four years in the league, but came to the Padres still in his athletic prime. He remains a very intriguing player.

After the Padres tied the game there was an interesting moment on the Cubs broadcast (volume on):

For the past few seasons Padres fans have travelled well. Other teams are taking note.

The Padres would go into the bottom of the 8th still tied up. Jason Adam pitched out of a jam to keep in tied into the 9th.

The Cubs would give the Padres a gift in the 9th when Justin Turner could not hold onto a throw to first that may have completed an inning ending double play, allowing Tatis to score the go ahead run from third on the play. Leading 8-7 the Padres went to Robert Suarez to close out the bottom of the 9th.

It’s worth a quick aside to discuss the early impression of the team’s closer. The end of the regular season in 2024 saw a maddening string of games in which Robert Suarez fell into a pattern of just firing his fastball again and again letting hitters time it up and ultimately allowing a string of blown saves on dramatic home runs. It just didn’t seem like Suarez was comfortable with his secondary pitches, and it was borne out in the data:

In 2024 Suarez threw the fastball (either the 4-seamer or sinker) 87% of the time. On the rare occasion he did throw a changeup he got very little chase.

All offseason this was a point of anxiety. And on opening day of 2025 Suarez was brought in to face Marcell Ozuna representing the tying run, when this somewhat ominous graphic was displayed:

Ozuna is one of the best fastball hitters in the game, and the book was out on Suarez. But here’s the sequence Suarez showed Ozuna:

Suarez threw four straight changeups to one of the best fastball hitters in baseball, and the result was that the fastball Ozuna saw on the final pitch blew him away. Look how late he is:

This was clearly a point of emphasis in the offseason, as Suarez has started 2025 with a far different pitch mix:

He’s throwing the changeup more than twice as often, and getting a very good chase rate. And you just have to wonder if this new pitch mix is already having its intended effect, even on hitters facing Suarez for the first time in 2025. Going back to the game on Sunday, Suarez started Seiya Suzuki with a fastball for strike one looking. Suzuki fouled off a second fastball bringing the count to 0-2. This was the third pitch of the sequence:

It’s hard to imagine that Suzuki would stare down a pitch like that if the book on Suarez was still just all fastballs. It really looks like Suzuki was caught off guard, expecting something else. That wasn’t a particularly close pitch, just a fastball clearly in the zone.

Kyle Tucker was up next. Tucker may be off to the hottest start of any player in the National League. And it really looked like Suarez’ use of sequencing gave him an edge against Tucker:

Tucker was very late on a middle-middle fastball. It was a 100 MPH fastball, but Tucker is good enough to time up anyone if he knows what pitch is coming.

The most interesting at bat may have been the final battle between Suarez and Justin Turner. Because here we saw a return of what got Suarez into trouble at the end of last season. Nothing but fastballs. 10 in a row:

Now there is some reason to think that Suarez had the right strategy here:

Justin Turner has literally the worst bat speed of all hitters in 2025. It’s possible that mixing in a changeup would have been an advantage for Turner. It’s hard to know. Turner certainly looked late and tied up by the final pitch of the at bat. Suarez’s sequencing is going to be a key to maintaining long term effectiveness. Early in 2025 it looks like he’s improved his best secondary pitch.

It’s Never Early

Despite dropping two of three in Chicago the Padres are still off to a dream start with the third best record in MLB at 8-2. But this weekend we saw that the back end of the rotation could be a recurring stumbling block. Padres starters walked 12 batters in 8.1 innings while giving up 11 runs. That’s untenable. It bears mention that as of Sunday the Cubs were the third best offense in baseball, and by far the league leaders in walks with 66 with the next closest team at 45 (three team tie). That’s a tough matchup for the backend of any rotation. But a team with playoff aspirations, facing a field as challenging as the 2025 NL appears to be, has to find a way. Every game counts the same at the end of the season. It’s never ‘early’ in a playoff hunt.