It's Starting To Click
Fernando Tatis Jr. Is Back And Things Have... Changed
It’s difficult to remember a more hotly anticipated return to the game than Fernando Tatis Jr.’s extra-long awaited comeback to the game he, perhaps more than any other player not named Shohei Ohtani, was born to play. Since his return, the energy, vibes, whatever have you, around the San Diego Padres has undergone a tectonic shift causing reverberations you have no doubt personally felt. The early games of the 2023 season, hallmarked by underwhelming performances that all too often ended in heartbreak, are disappearing in the rearview mirror.
Yes, the Padres schedule has considerably lightened up over the last week with memorable games in Mexico City against the aggressively uninteresting (aren’t they always) San Francisco Giants, and back at home against the ever-adrift Cincinnati Reds. Only through unsustainable bad luck did the Padres fail to sweep both series. OK, sure they went 0-12 with RISP while slumping to a frustrating 2-1 loss to the lowly Reds, but in that game the Padres hitters were absolutely crushing the ball and getting extraordinarily unlucky, at least as measured by expected batting average (xBA). For example, in the bottom of the 10th inning with runners on first and second, Manny Machado hit a 102 mph frozen rope to left field that had an xBA of .670! Had the scorching line drive not been caught by the deftly positioned left fielder, perhaps we would be discussing the Padres 6 game winning streak, but it wasn’t to be.
Still, since Fernando’s return to the fray, the Padres are 9-4. That is not an accident or just because the schedule is no longer the toughest schedule to an open a season in baseball history. Fernando is the very definition of a game-changer. Fernando’s mere on-field presence fundamentally alters the realities for both teams and the fans as well.
For the opposing teams, the Padres lineup, by adding the most incandescent player (again, not named Shohei Ohtani) in baseball, went from dangerous to deadly. Fernando is a lurking presence that must drive opposing managers and pitchers mad, not least of which because Fernando is just the tip of the spear. Imagine the anxiety of knowing that if the bottom of the Padres order is at all productive (and to be sure, there are some quality hitters down there), the game can spin out of control in just one inning. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for error.
For the Padres, Fernando brings unparalleled positive energy and vitality to a team that has been bereft of that special ingredient all season. Simply put, Fernando makes others him around better. Is it just a coincidence that since Fernando’s return, Juan Soto has exploded to life and Manny’s swing is looking better by the day? Sure, we predicted a few weeks ago that Juan Soto was overdue for some positive regression, and that has borne out almost precisely as we predicted. But Manny, as we discussed, was a much grimmer situation, and we did not feel as confident in a near-term resurgence. To be certain, Manny’s return from the Arctic was assisted by the high-altitude Mexico City series, but his at-bats just feel different these past few games than even just a week ago. His approach has improved, his quality of contact has improved, and the hits have started falling. We cannot know why Manny was stuck in the ice for the first twenty games of the season, but he is heating up, and that’s what matters now. The timing is too coincidental to think that the improvement from both Soto and Manny, the two misfiring superstars, has nothing to do with the return of San Diego’s prodigal son.
Then there’s the effect of Fernando’s return on the crowd. Fernando made his return in Arizona and was greeted by a sea of brown and gold in the desert. Then there were the crowds in Chicago. Within the “friendly” confines of Wrigley Field, Cubs fans, who once breathlessly gushed over Sammy Sosa, tried to give Fernando the Steve Bartman treatment, hurling all manner of sanctimonious insults Fernando’s way. Fernando was uncowed by the abuse and responded in the only way he knows how, by dancing. Oh, and he put together a 3 RBI game, leading the Padres to their one and only victory of the series. In fact, even while being razzed by the loudmouths in Chicago, Fernando hit over .300 for the series. To the rest of the shameless fanbases who believe their merciless heckles will negatively impact Fernando’s performance, we say, good luck with that.
In Mexico City, a series nominally considered a Padres home series, Fernando finally donned the Padres City Connect uniform, a uniform seemingly designed with him in mind. The fans in Mexico City were treated to quite a spectacle and many of them are now Padres fans for life, and Peter Seidler’s vision of the Padres as a truly international brand climbed another rung. Indeed, as if to reinforce the connections forged with the fans in Mexico City, the Padres adopted the now famous sombrero (home-brero?) home run and piñata locker room celebrations. You know who introduced the home run sombrero? If you’ve made it this far, you can probably guess.
Back at Petco, Fernando got a reception for the ages. In stark contrast to his perceived banishment to the outfield in 2021 where he visibly sulked, Fernando enthusiastically sprinted out to his new home in right field and was greeted with equally enthusiastic screams, shouts, and chants. Fernando waved, smiled, and finished with a bow that was one part genuine apology for the disastrous personal events of 2022, and one part a nod to a (hopefully) beautiful future.
Outwardly, Fernando seems to be a changed man and time will tell. Presently, he takes abuse with good humor and even wins over some of the fans who just minutes before were heckling and teasing him. Everything he does goes viral. As much as they may deny it, opposing fans have missed Fernando too. After all, let’s not forget that the Yankees fans, who consider themselves “above it…” practically wet themselves when vague and completely baseless rumors emerged that the Yankees might trade for Fernando this past off-season. Every fanbase wants Fernando on their team, but the simple reality is, we have Fernando and they don’t!
On City Connect Friday, which also happened to be Cinco de Mayo, Padres fans were treated to the game they’ve been waiting for. It was the first meeting between the Padres and Dodgers since the Padres’ epic upset and humiliation of the 111 win super-juggernaut in the NLDS. If anyone was wondering whether the NLDS would have any lasting reverberations, the answer was an emphatic, “YES!” The Padres ingeniously instituted the geo-fencing tactic to ensure that during the NLDS, Petco Park would not just be Dodger Stadium South, and now, it seems, it may never be again. On Friday Night, estimates came in ranging from 70-30 Padres-Dodgers fans to 80-20. Dodger fans are struggling to condescend. The “little brother” has indeed grown up and the “bigger brother” knows it. The Padres-Dodgers rivalry has officially usurped the stale Dodgers-Giants rivalry as the premier matchup in the NL West, maybe even in MLB.
The game itself had an almost playoff-like atmosphere, though no regular season contest can truly come close to that game in the rain. Dodgers fans, still obviously recovering from the wound they took last October, were cheering like they had won the World Series (a real World Series not an empty stadium Mickey Mouse exhibition) after opening the scoring in the first inning. Yes, it’s a little sad to see such naked displays of over-compensation from an insufferably arrogant fanbase, but let’s face it, we enjoyed it. The Dodgers unbridled joy at scoring a single run early in the game did not last long. Fernando took future hall of fame pitcher, and historic Padre killer, Clayton Kershaw, out of the yard twice en route to a comfortable and comprehensive Padres win. It should be noted that until Friday Night, Kershaw had been nearly unhittable and was already considered a Cy Young Award frontrunner. It should also be noted that this year Kershaw had yet to face Fernando, who owns a nearly .900 career OPS off the resurgent ace. Kershaw may still win the Cy Young Award, but he will no doubt be glad to see the back of Fernando. In the post-game press conference, Padres skipper Bob Melvin was effusive in his praise for the player, who by his own admission, he’s been most eager to manage since he took the helm in 2022.
It has been said in some circles of Padres fandom that Manny is the heart and soul of the team. Manny has been called the “straw that stirs the drink” among other metaphors. In 2022, that was undoubtedly true. But in 2023, Manny can afford to bear less of the load while San Diego’s superstar of superstars does what he does best, shine.
OK… the foregoing should not give the impression that all is now well in Padres land. For one thing, the Padres still have a gaping hole at catcher. As much as we appreciate what Austin Nola has done for this team, he’s had a catastrophic 2023 (so far) with no real indication that he is going to correct course. Brett Sullivan might emerge as Nola’s relief, but that’s a lot of expectation to place on a 29 year-old rookie. Luis Campusano is still recovering from his freak injury with an uncertain timeline. Joe Musgrove seems to have suffered yet another injury that saw him scratched from his scheduled Saturday start, but he is expected to start Sunday. We’ll see how that goes. Ryan Weathers’ mom imploded on twitter following Weathers’ perceived demotion to AAA, and the bullpen still has some kinks to work out.
But the Padres are clearly making progress. Juan Soto is trending up. Manny and Cronenworth are slowly coming around. Xander is holding steady. The Carpenter/Cruz platoon is working out well. With the addition of Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres are not yet humming, but things are undeniably starting to click.
LFGSD