Keep The Faith

A Sunset Showdown In The Wild West

An 8-0 loss is an absolute blowout. And it can be tempting to forgo any analysis when results are this one sided. But it’s helpful to dissect Wednesday’s loss and its implications for Friday’s zero-sum showdown.

The Dodgers punished a version of the Padres Wednesday night. Dylan Cease on 3-days rest is not Dylan Cease the ace. There've been a few pitchers over the years that can be that ace even on short rest - Madison Bumgarner comes to mind - but we discovered that isn't Cease. And that's not going to be the game plan Friday.

The Dodgers beat this version of the Padres with a very successful bullpen game. A “Bullpen game” evokes a team sending up a distress flare, out of options, cornered, hoping for the best. But that’s just one version of a bullpen game. Covering nine innings with an array of high leverage arms is sneakily an advantage for the “bullpen game” team. The version the Dodgers conjured on Wednesday was the exemplar. The reason bullpen games like this don't happen more often is because it's untenable over the long term, pitchers need days off.

The Padres threw a bullpen game of their own by default given Cease's early exit. But it was a very different bullpen game: it was a mop-up game. The Dodgers didn't run up the score on the Padres elite bullpen arms. They got runs off of an ineffective Cease, and long relievers Brian Hoeing, Alec Jacob, and Wandy Peralta. They got nothing off of Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada. Morejon got a bit lucky on a ground ball down the line that Manny Machado knocked into the umpire preventing what would've been an RBI double otherwise. But the ball was not hit well at all.

The game script for the Padres - being down by 3 runs early and having to pull the ineffective starter - influenced the choice of deploying their lower leverage arms, avoiding the opportunity cost of burning their high leverage arms in a loss. Your mileage may vary on that strategic choice, but the upshot is that the Padres kept the powder dry.

The game script for the Dodgers was the exact opposite - it was do or die. They needed to empty the tank to protect the early lead and they did just that. The Dodgers threw their very best relievers out there, including their closer in the 3rd (!!). In total the Dodgers bullpen threw 146 pitches, all thrown by their best arms. The Padres bullpen only threw 116 pitches, and none of them were thrown by their best arms.

Xander Bogaerts made a fluky error that directly led to 3 of the Dodgers runs scoring. He's not prone to making those often. That was some bad luck. There was plenty of luck in how the hits were dropping too. Look at the difference between Mookie Betts’ home run and Machado’s flyout:

Machado’s flyout was hit better than Betts' home run but came later in the game when the cooler night air was suppressing flyball distance. The same effect prevented Jake Cronenworth's 106.3 MPH 401 foot triple from leaving the yard. Perhaps even Fernando Tatis’ 111.8 MPH 387 foot double might’ve cleared the fence while the sun was still in the sky. In some counterfactual universe where those hits come in the early innings while the air is warm it's the Padres who are up with a chance to close out the Dodgers. This isn’t wishcasting, the Padres lost, but counterfactuals can be helpful to understanding why things played out the way they did, and how things might have differed. The game script progresses very differently if the Padres had an early lead. The Dodgers hitters would've faced Morejon, Estrada, Adam, Scott, and Suarez instead of Hoeing, Jacob, Wandy Peralta, and Yuki Matsui. Indeed, this is one of the key win conditions Friday. The offense must be there. And if it is there early, the Padres have the stoppers to preserve the lead.

An 8-0 blowout is an 8-0 blowout. None of this is to say the Padres didn’t deserve to lose, or the Dodgers didn’t deserve to win. The Dodgers players performed exceptionally well all night. They are a very good team. But it’s also the case that different versions of these teams will be playing Friday. That’s just a simple description of reality.

There were two starkly different strategies on display Wednesday. Dave Roberts was pushing all in from the first pitch. On the other side, once the game script was very unfavorable, Mike Shildt pulled the levers at his disposal with an eye towards maximizing the chance that the Padres put the best version of themselves on the field Friday. Again, this isn’t to say that was the ideal strategy. It’s just what we saw. Both teams will be deploying the same strategy Friday: Leave nothing in the tank. Use it all.

This is the playoffs, and the playoff adrenaline boost is a very real phenomenon. And as such some of the same relievers that shut down the Padres lineup Wednesday night will pitch in Friday’s elimination game. And they're very good. But it won’t be surprising if they’re a slightly diminished version of themselves. And the Padres hitters got a good look at the Dodgers' best arms. There are increments of advantage changing hands here.

Friday the Padres will start Yu Darvish, a veteran pitching on full rest. And he won't need to give the Padres length, the fire-breathers are rested.

The truth is these teams are very evenly matched. They’ve exchanged blows and each side has seen haymakers land with stunning effect. Dodgers fans were as stunned Sunday as the Padres fans were on Wednesday.

Baseball teams are not monolithic. They are different night to night. All things considered the Padres are in as strong a position as they could have hoped for entering a do-or-die game. We can't know for certain what will happen. All we know is both teams have a real chance to win. So it’s time to keep the faith.