Why do you say there’s a small chance FTJ returns this year. I thought most reports expect a return in August at some point. Have I missed something? I get being pessimistic given Padre history on injuries and how they report on it though.
I don't think you've missed anything, I'm very much hoping he can return healthy as stated in August, and there's a chance he will. We were given very little actual information about the injury, they called it a right femoral stress reaction but didn't give the grade of the stress reaction nor specify which area of the femur was affected - and the prognosis is very different depending on those factors.
The reason I'm a little more concerned is that it appears in retrospect the pain he was experiencing in March was the early portion of the stress reaction, and he continued to play hard through the pain for three months. He's an absolutely explosive athlete and his activity likely puts more strain on the femur than, say, a jogger.
Recovery time for this type of injury ranges from three weeks to three months depending on the grade of the injury which usually is influenced by the amount of wear and tear on the region of bone incurred prior to diagnosis.
With this in mind it just wouldn't be surprising if it took closer to the three month recovery timeline given how much wear and tear he incurred prior to the diagnosis being made, in which case his return would likely be for the postseason. I would love to see the injury turn out to be mild and for an August return at full health to become a reality. And there's a chance that's going to take place. Tatis is healthier than a lot of people that develop these injuries and maybe that helps him recover on the shorter side of the timeline. It would be a very pleasant, if mildly surprising, outcome if that happened. It's definitely what I'm hoping for.
Lots of good logic in your response. Always pays to be skeptical when it comes to injury reports and the Padre organization. Kinda typical for the Padres in that it would go undiagnosed for so long, though I remember that it’s a particularly hard thing to diagnose and uncommon in athletes in many sports. So, unless the doctors are looking for it, it’s hard to find.
Another topic: To me, X coming back isn’t as helpful as it seems- even assuming “expected performance” levels- because he is either replacing Arraez, Jake or Solano in the order. He takes Johnson’s spot on the roster but takes time from one of those other three. Certainly provides insurance and better optionally for matchups (I.e., raising the floor), not to mention normal X performance exceeds all those guys to some degree.
But getting FTJ back- performing at / near prior performance- is much more of game changer in the lineup.
You know I should have written 'returns during the regular season' - I replied to WMM why I'm a little worried he'll be out longer than the targeted date. Very much hoping that the targeted date for return in August becomes the reality though.
At this point, if they can stay within a game or two of playoff position, I’d keep him out until it’s fully healed. Don’t rush him back. Gets dicey if wheels start to come off, likely due to pitching cratering.
Good read as always.
Why do you say there’s a small chance FTJ returns this year. I thought most reports expect a return in August at some point. Have I missed something? I get being pessimistic given Padre history on injuries and how they report on it though.
I don't think you've missed anything, I'm very much hoping he can return healthy as stated in August, and there's a chance he will. We were given very little actual information about the injury, they called it a right femoral stress reaction but didn't give the grade of the stress reaction nor specify which area of the femur was affected - and the prognosis is very different depending on those factors.
The reason I'm a little more concerned is that it appears in retrospect the pain he was experiencing in March was the early portion of the stress reaction, and he continued to play hard through the pain for three months. He's an absolutely explosive athlete and his activity likely puts more strain on the femur than, say, a jogger.
Recovery time for this type of injury ranges from three weeks to three months depending on the grade of the injury which usually is influenced by the amount of wear and tear on the region of bone incurred prior to diagnosis.
With this in mind it just wouldn't be surprising if it took closer to the three month recovery timeline given how much wear and tear he incurred prior to the diagnosis being made, in which case his return would likely be for the postseason. I would love to see the injury turn out to be mild and for an August return at full health to become a reality. And there's a chance that's going to take place. Tatis is healthier than a lot of people that develop these injuries and maybe that helps him recover on the shorter side of the timeline. It would be a very pleasant, if mildly surprising, outcome if that happened. It's definitely what I'm hoping for.
Lots of good logic in your response. Always pays to be skeptical when it comes to injury reports and the Padre organization. Kinda typical for the Padres in that it would go undiagnosed for so long, though I remember that it’s a particularly hard thing to diagnose and uncommon in athletes in many sports. So, unless the doctors are looking for it, it’s hard to find.
Another topic: To me, X coming back isn’t as helpful as it seems- even assuming “expected performance” levels- because he is either replacing Arraez, Jake or Solano in the order. He takes Johnson’s spot on the roster but takes time from one of those other three. Certainly provides insurance and better optionally for matchups (I.e., raising the floor), not to mention normal X performance exceeds all those guys to some degree.
But getting FTJ back- performing at / near prior performance- is much more of game changer in the lineup.
You think there's only a small chance FTJ returns at all? Why is that?
You know I should have written 'returns during the regular season' - I replied to WMM why I'm a little worried he'll be out longer than the targeted date. Very much hoping that the targeted date for return in August becomes the reality though.
At this point, if they can stay within a game or two of playoff position, I’d keep him out until it’s fully healed. Don’t rush him back. Gets dicey if wheels start to come off, likely due to pitching cratering.
This certainly sounds like good news:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5634508/2024/07/12/padres-fernando-tatis-leg-injury/
Let’s hope so.