Microcosm

The Good Version

The first series after the All-Star break went about as well as could be hoped: winning 2 of 3 against the Cleveland Guardians, the team with the best home record in baseball, on their home turf. A few key decisions during the series helped the team achieve the good outcome, and the series itself served as a microcosm of the best version of the Padres in a short series.

Game 1

On Friday night Matt Waldron continued to look like a legitimately good mid-rotation starter going 6 innings and allowing only 1 run, striking out 5, and walking none. His opponent was Tanner Bibbee whose 3.58 ERA belies his dominance. Bibbee is a burgeoning ace if he can play healthy. He shut down the Padres offense, allowing no runs through 7 innings.

With the Guardians leading 1-0, Waldron started the bottom of the 7th against David Fry and gave up a single. The Padres went to the bullpen. They had their pick of arms with the entire bullpen available after the All-Star break layoff. They went with Yuki Matsui who struck out the side.

The Padres were unable to score in the top of the 8th and trailed 1-0 when Mike Shildt elected to have Stephen Kolek start the bottom of the eighth. The inning would unravel with Kolek ultimately not recording an out and allowing 4 earned runs. Austin Davis would allow 2 more while retiring only 1 hitter. Sean Reynolds would be brought in for the final 2 outs. The Padres would lose 7-0, but the final score really didn’t show how close the game was.

The most interesting decision was bringing in Stephen Kolek in the bottom of the eighth in a 1 run game. On the one hand you could argue that not going with one of the high leverage arms (Estrada or Morejon) with a 1-0 deficit was defeatist. But the Guardians have one of the best (if not the best) bullpens in baseball and the Padres had only the top of the 9th left to try to score the tying run off the Guardians unhittable closer Emmanuel Clase; Achieving the 1-0 comeback had a much higher degree of difficulty than normal. And bringing in a high leverage reliever to try to preserve the 1-0 deficit would have incurred an opportunity cost to that reliever’s availability later in the series. Instead Shildt went with the less reliable Kolek and didn’t panic when he got into trouble, calling in fellow end of the bench arms Davis and Reynolds for mop up duty and keeping the powder dry for games 2 and 3. There’s a pretty strong argument that was the proper risk management decision, even though it can be cast in a defeatist light.

Game 2

Dylan Cease was nearly unhittable for the second start in a row Saturday, pitching 7 innings of shutout baseball. The Padres hitters were able to get to Guardians starter Gavin Williams for 3 runs and tacked on 4 more against reliever Spencer Howard to give the Padres a 7-0 lead going into the bottom of the eighth. With only one more game left in the series and an off day to follow, the Padres were able to bring in Jeremiah Estrada to shut down the Guardians in the 8th without risking his availability for the series finale. Yuki Matsui pitched a clean 9th to preserve the Padres 7-0 shutout. The Padres protected a 7 run lead and didn’t have to use Robert Suarez.

Game 3

The Padres offense got two early runs in the top of the 2nd when Kyle Higashioka hit a 2-run double with 2 on and 2 outs:

Michael King was on the mound for the Padres. He would continue his breakout season with 6 no-hit innings before allowing back to back singles to open the 7th. The damage was limited thanks to defensive playmaking by Manny Machado:

Statcast suggests Machado is having a down year defensively based on the range-based Outs Above Average (OAA) metric, but his instincts are still elite. King would get out of the jam giving up only one run on a fielder’s choice thanks to Manny’s playmaking.

In the bottom of the 8th leading 2-1, the Padres brought in Jeremiah Estrada for the second game in a row, a day game after a night game no less. Estrada retired the first two hitters before issuing a walk to pinch hitter David Fry. Mike Shildt immediately called for Robert Suarez, who hadn’t pitched all series, to come in for the 4-out save. Suarez faced Bo Naylor who was unable to catch up to the four seam fastball, fouling out on a 99 MPH pitch right down the middle to end the inning.

The Padres hitters couldn’t add on in the top of the ninth, and Suarez faced the top of the Guardians order clinging to the 2-1 lead in the final frame. Suarez took 7 pitches to retire Steven Kwan and Angel Martinez. But he fell behind 2-1 to All-World slugger Jose Ramirez. Allowing Ramirez to get on would’ve brought the winning run to the plate. Suarez couldn’t afford to fall behind 3-1. Yet Ramirez was fully capable of tying the game with one swing. The whole stadium knew Suarez was going to give Ramirez his best pitch next. Earlier this season Matt Waldron described Robert Suarez’ approach in these situations as ‘(Expletive) you, hit this’. Here’s what that approach looks like:

Suarez hit 101.2 MPH on that pitch, one of the fastest marks of his career. Whether Suarez being fully rested was a factor there is impossible to say, but he absolutely dialed it up a notch on the most critical pitch of his outing. Ramirez couldn’t quite get it, though he came close. You can’t help but wonder if the extra ticks of velo on Suarez’ offering were the difference. We should also note that Jackson Merrill made that catch look routine. It isn’t. He got an absolutely fantastic jump on the ball. He’s a very good center fielder, an unreal development outcome for the Padres. Ultimately Suarez retired all 4 batters he faced and secured the 4-out save, and the series win.

One Of The Best

Clark Fahrenthold noted after game 3 that Michael King has quietly been one of the three most valuable pitchers in baseball since May 1st:

Since an inexplicably rough April Michael King has pitched like an ace, pure and simple. It was on display Sunday:

Courtesy: MLB.com

Microcosm

In the Guardians series the Padres showcased the excellent top of the rotation they’ve assembled. Waldron, Cease, and King combined to pitch 20 innings giving up only 2 runs. The Guardians scored 8 runs across the 3 games, but 6 of those came against end of the bench bullpen arms. And although the Padres elected not to use their best bullpen arms late in a 1-0 game in the opener, this decision preserved the elite bullpen arms for games 2 and 3, allowing the Padres to deploy Jeremiah Estrada in a day game after a night game, and getting the very best version of Suarez against the toughest part of the Guardians order with a razor thin lead in the pivotal game 3. It’s hard to argue that the Padres could have managed these three games better.

The series was a microcosm of the deeds the best version of the team is capable of. None of these games were flukes. At full strength they’re as good as anyone. But they likely need 33 more wins across the final 60 games to survive the regular season. And that means getting wins when the best version of the Padres is simply not available. We’re about to see what that looks like. Randy Vasquez is slated to start against the Nationals Tuesday, and no starter has yet been named for Wednesday. Jhony Brito has been working on a splitter in AAA but also has had forearm discomfort. Adam Mazur hasn’t seemed ready. Nabil Crismatt is stretching out in AAA, but would seem like a desperation maneuver. Joe Musgrove doesn’t have a target date for his return yet. One can’t help but wonder if Wednesday’s starter is currently on another team’s roster…