No Tomorrow
The sun has set on the wildest Padres season of all-time
Torrential rain hounded the Padres and Phillies throughout game 5 of the NLCS. The Padres fighting for their lives. The Phillies, under the aegis of incredible good luck combined with otherworldy clutch hitting through the first four games, sought to punch their ticket to their third World Series since 2008.
Yu Darvish gutted through the early innings with help from two double plays. But the streak Rhys Hoskins is on proved unstoppable. On a rare 3-0 slider Hoskins was given the green light and executed perfectly:
Courtesy: @MLB
It’s hard to know if Darvish left that a little more in the zone expecting a take. Regardless, you tip your cap to the Phillies for the confidence they showed in their slugger, and the phenomenal execution by Hoskins on such a huge stage. Well done.
The hallmark of a champion is never rolling over. Fighting every step of the way. The Padres answered quickly. After Zack Wheeler pitched a perfect first three innings and appeared unstoppable, the second time through the order would start to change things:
Courtesy: @Padres
The slug from Soto finally seemed to be emerging, the no doubter was his second home run in as many days. The Padres were in it, but down 2-1.
Both sides faced increasing adversity and leverage as the game went on. Darvish worked out of a few jams to keep things close. The 2-1 scored stood heading into the top of the seventh as a clearly fatiguing Wheeler took the mound again. Jake Cronenworth squared up on Wheeler blasting a line drive past the diving second baseman Jean Segura. That would be it for Wheeler as the Phillies went to the pen bringing in their preeminent reliever Seranthony Dominguez. Josh Bell, as due as any player has ever been, stepped in.
Courtesy: @MLBONFOX
The clutch RBI was Bell’s biggest hit of the post season. He would be replaced on second base by pinch runner Jose Azocar. Dominguez recovered to throw huge back to back strikeouts against Brandon Drury and Ha-Seong Kim. Trent Grisham stood in with two outs and the go ahead run on second. What followed was the messiest sequence in the series. Dominguez lost his feel, probably quite literally, as the rain poured down in such waves that any regular season game would’ve been stopped. But this was the NLCS and the show must go on. Wild pitches gave the speedy Azocar third base, and crucially, home plate for the go ahead run:
Courtesy: @MLBONFOX
The Phillies would escape the inning when Grisham flied out but the damage was done, they now trailed 3-2 with only nine outs left.
As Bob Melvin has been wont to do all season, he let Yu Darvish start the seventh inning. Melvin has received acclaim for how he handled the adversity faced by the team all year. He got angry at the right times. He kept the focus of the team on the right things. The Tatis disaster was far and away the most devastating challenge any team in the MLB faced all season, and Bob had helmed the ship through that storm magnificently. But where he’s been critiqued, somewhat fairly, is for the moments when he showed faith in his players that seemed to go beyond what was warranted by performance and circumstance. Darvish had pitched well but had looked far from dominant. He fell behind Bryson Stott before giving up a full count double that rolled to the right field wall. To Bob Melvin’s credit he made the pitching change without hesitation after the extra base hit. Some wondered if it was a batter too late.
A Padres postseason hero would return to the mound to try to hold the lead and bridge the gap until the unhittable Josh Hader could come in to close it out. Robert Suarez, who’s legendary performances in New York and Los Angeles were a large part of why the Padres were still battling for the World Series, took the ball with the tying run in scoring position and no outs. He worked quickly to the soft hitting Segura getting him to fly out after three mid 90’s sinkers. Some worried about the velocity, as Suarez was typically hitting 98-100 MPH in prior outings. Loss of velo has portended the catastrophic declines in performance seen earlier in the season from Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea. Suarez would put doubts to rest when he cranked the velo back up to 98 to down Brandon Marsh with a three pitch strikeout. After a walk to Kyle Schwarber the inning would end with a routine fly out from Rhys Hoskins. Suarez had put out the fire. Six outs to go.
The Padres threatened in the top of the eighth putting two on with one out, but Manny Machado popped out and Jake Cronenworth ended the inning with a slow chopper to the right side of the infield.
Robert Suarez was sent back out for the bottom of the eighth. The heart of the order was due up. It was a big ask for Suarez to carry two scoreless innings on the road in such a high leverage situation. But that was what Robert Suarez, aka Big Game Bob, Bobby Bullets, had come to be known for. Phillies number three hitter J.T. Realmuto stood in and immediately fell behind 0-2 after two well located sinkers. He fouled off a third pitch and seemed to be dialing in on the 95 MPH offerings. Suarez and Nola agreed on a pitch call that seemed to make all the sense in the world, and on the fourth pitch of the at bat Suarez threw a change up. As is the case so often in baseball good process doesn’t guarantee good outcome. The pitch selection was right for the moment, Suarez located the pitch in the lower part of the strike zone. Realmuto just stuck his bat out, slightly in front of the pitch, and looped it into left field. A two strike single brought up the go ahead run in the form of the most intimidating hitter in the Phillies lineup, Bryce Harper.
In 2019 the free agent class held two iconic superstars, both preternaturally talented and in the prime of their careers: Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Prior to 2019 Padres fans would have never believed that either free agent would ever be signed by the franchise that had once coined the ignominious phrase “Starts with a four.” But 2019 was the beginning of something different. The Padres pursued Bryce Harper, and they signed Manny Machado. A straight line can be drawn from that momentous offseason to the moment at hand. Machado and Harper have since played well enough to have a claim to being the best free agent position player signings in baseball history. For long time followers of Padres baseball the new era started during that offseason. And for that reason one couldn’t help but think that in this moment, on this stage, threads of fate were intertwining as Harper walked up to the plate.
The broadcast cut to a shot of Josh Hader who appeared warmed up and ready to go in the bullpen. But he didn’t come out. Bob Melvin was keeping Robert Suarez in to face the very best the Phillies had to offer.
During a grueling at bat in which Suarez kept firing a mix of high 90’s sinkers and four seam fastballs, he never made a bad pitch. But Harper met him stride for stride. On the sixth pitch of the at bat Suarez and Nola tried to pull the string. Bobby Bullets switched it up throwing a deceptive change up down in the zone that at first seemed to catch the lower edge of the strike zone. Harper just watched it go by. That’s what separates Harper from a normal slugger. Suarez executed a textbook change up, Harper didn’t bite. His mind processed the deception in less than a tenth of a second and recognized the differing velocity and spin and preempted his swing action, letting the pitch drift harmlessly down and out of the zone. By now you know what happened next. The seventh pitch of the at bat was a 98 MPH sinker located on the outer half of the strike zone. This wasn’t a mistake pitch. Suarez threw it from a steep vertical plane and it dove down and out as it flew towards the plate. This was an out pitch. This was what had resurrected Suarez’ career. This was why he was on the biggest stage. But Bryce Harper is larger than life. The player who was featured at age 16 on the cover of Sports Illustrated as “The Chosen One”, the player the Padres had wanted so badly to be part of their new era, the reigning National League MVP, came through with the biggest swing of his life:
Courtesy: @SportsCenter
It was the death blow to the Padres magical season. It was a hall of famer showing his mettle in spectacular fashion. It was the moment every player hopes to achieve. There are plenty of enshrined legends in Cooperstown who never reached a summit quite as high.
The Padres would fight as they did all season, even getting the go ahead run on base in the ninth. But, alas, it wasn’t meant to be. The Phillies escaped the ninth and got the victory in front of their hometown fans.
A question from this game will be talked about for years: Why was Robert Suarez made to pitch to Bryce Harper, rather than bringing in Josh Hader? Hader was fresh, had been warming up, and had struck out the past eight hitters he’d faced, a playoff record. Would the Padres have retained the lead if Josh Hader had relieved Robert Suarez in that moment? Would the Padres season still be alive? These are unanswerable questions. We will never know. Hindsight bias plagues humanity and corrupts the lessons we would otherwise learn. We often let our minds trick us into thinking there was an obvious right answer to a question that in the moment was actually very uncertain. There are many saying that bringing in Hader to face Harper was obviously the right thing to do to give the Padres the best chance at winning. But Bob Melvin and the Padres cast doubt on that assertion:
If you accept the premise that Hader was not yet ready and that there were grave strategic misgivings about bringing him in to attempt a daunting six out save, that forecloses on the idea that bringing in Hader was the obviously right strategic move from a win probability standpoint. But there is an empirical argument that bringing in Hader was the right move nonetheless. When there’s no tomorrow, you have to make the other team beat your best. This is a statement that goes beyond the quantitative analysis informing overall win probabilities. This is a sensibility more than a strategy. Whether leaving in Suarez maximized the win probability in that moment is subject to uncertainty and judgement. But whether Suarez was the best pitcher on the Padres staff is not uncertain, that distinction belongs to Hader. Josh Hader is the best reliever in baseball, on the hottest streak of his career. The question Melvin was facing was who to send in to face the Leviathan hitter and keep the season alive. When you’re up against the best, you have to make them beat your very best. The Padres didn’t ensure that today. That’s not hindsight bias, that’s clarity. Robert Suarez is a Padres legend for what he’s done this offseason. It is no discredit to him in any way to say that Hader has been better. That is just the truth about two incredible talents.
Critique can either be constructive or destructive. We hope only to give constructive critique here, the type we would want to receive should we not arrive at an insight ourselves: Bob Melvin left bullets in the chamber in a do or die showdown. He is an excellent manager, yet not beyond reproach. His game management in the postseason, especially when there is no tomorrow, can be improved. The Padres played five games against the Phillies. Josh Hader pitched one inning. Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea pitched 1.1 innings. Now is a time for Bob Melvin to look at the big picture, dissect what he can do better, and update his future practices. We hope dearly he gets the chance to show us all what he can do.
This year was unquestionably special for the members of the team and the most overlooked fan base in the country. Austin Nola said what’s in all our hearts:
Yes major league baseball is a business, but it’s also a human endeavor and the humanity of the this team was on display all year. Joe Musgrove’s honesty never ceases and it’s no surprise that he understands both the fan and the team perspective:
The Padres find themselves at the end of a miracle season, yet somehow also in the midst of a redemption arc. We all learned so much about what this team can do. The player who unquestionably learned the most from this season didn’t even play a game.
This is a story with more than three acts. The lessons learned this season will define the culture going forward: We are good enough to win it all, and no matter how daunting the odds we should never give up.
We’re happy for the fans of Philadelphia, the powerhouse franchise is now going to their third world series in the past 15 years. That is some serious success. Padres fans will have to content themselves with living in the best city in the country until we run it all back next season. We already have our season tickets secured. LFGSD.
Cover Photo courtesy of San Diego Union Tribune
the Phillies are God’s team I’m not really that upset. I mean yeah Bob could’ve not pitched manaea and Clev yesterday and we prob would’ve won, and pitched Hader against Harper (why didn’t he 😭) but in the end Philly is the team of destiny
Can't help but think that the team will have a lot of returning players with unfinished business