The Cost of Doing the Deal
It's less than you think
There is a climate of fear amongst the Padres faithful, fear that giving up Abrams et al. for Soto is sacrificing too much future value, even for a generational superstar. The trade deadline is approaching, Dustin May just got a clean bill of health, and A.J. is running dangerously low on Xanax.
This is the third letter to A.J.
Today L2AJ is questioning the premise that trading Abrams et al. for Juan Soto involves sacrificing future value. Presuming A.J. decides to send Abrams et al. to the Nats, how much future value would actually be sacrificed? After all, the Padres are getting Juan Soto back, and while assets tend to depreciate through time, is it reasonable to expect significant depreciation in the trade value of Soto? If not, then why do we view giving up Abrams et al. as sacrificing anything? Could A.J. not trade Soto again at a future date and recoup most of what was given up? Let’s answer this question.
Ok obviously that poll doesn’t answer the question, only 17 people on Padres Twitter responded and absolutely no credentials or calculations were involved. But not a single respondent thought Soto’s trade value would fluctuate by more than 10%, and that feels intuitively correct. Also, we are new here and as of this article’s publishing we have 23 Twitter followers, 17 respondents is punching up!
Realistically once A.J. sends Abrams et al. to the Nationals none of those specific players are coming back to the Padres. But if Soto is likely to retain his value a year from now, A.J. could could get a package equivalent to what they’re sending out today.
What is Juan Soto's trade value a year from now?
Earlier we wrote an article with the question “What should a major league baseball GM trade for a 23 year old Ted Williams?”. We follow this up with the question “What should a major league baseball GM trade for a 24 year old Ted Williams?”
Prime Numbers
The world will never know the answer to the above question as Ted Williams famously skipped his age 24, 25, and 26 seasons for military service. When he returned to the majors at age 27 he proceeded to finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in MVP voting the next four seasons. For Williams his prime years are to define. He put up a 10 WAR season at age 22. He also put up a 9.7 WAR season at age 38.
Baseball players tend to age differently than athletes in the other major sports. There have been many deep dives into what age baseball players peak. It’s commonly believed that somewhere between age 27 and 29 is the peak for most hitters. Ted Williams is a favorite comparison for Juan Soto for a number of reasons, the chief of which is being best hitter in baseball at age 23. Juan Soto peaking when a typical hitter does portends 7-10 more MVP caliber seasons. Soto aging the way Williams did would mean 10-15 more MVP caliber seasons. It is impossible to exaggerate how rare it is for a player like this to be available. Age here matters because there is reason to believe Soto hasn’t peaked. It’s reasonable to expect him to produce 7-10 more MVP caliber seasons. There’s an outside shot it’s 10-15. GMs know this, and that will absolutely factor in to his value a year from now.
This Is Not A Normal Trade Opportunity
Typically when a team is making a “win now” trade they are sacrificing future value (in the form of prospects) for present value in the form of older players with a mature skillset. The expectation is that the older players will depreciate in value through time while the prospects appreciate in value through time. This is -not- what A.J. would be doing in trading for Soto. In Juan Soto A.J. could make a “win now” trade, and retain much or all of the future value that was traded out. We’ll reiterate here: It is impossible to exaggerate how rare it is for a player like this to be available.
We’re Not One Player Away…
The 2021 Atlanta Braves won the World Series with a pitching staff that allowed 4.05 runs/game, a healthy figure good for 7th best in baseball. This season the Padres pitching staff are allowing 4.01 runs/game, good for 9th best in baseball. Those Braves sported a defensive efficiency of .708, 4th in the bigs. The Padres this year sit at .711, 6th overall. The champion Braves scored 4.91 runs/game in 2021, good for 7th in the majors, and this is where the Padres fall short, currently at 4.34 just above league average. We’ve heard the cries from Padres fans that “we’re not just one player away”. True, we’re not, but we’re getting one back already. Tatis is suiting up this season. The question to ask is are we two players away? The Padres are a league average offense. Add two offensive MVP candidates to that and we are top 10, maybe top 5. Add Tatis and Soto and we’re the 2021 Braves. Maybe better.
The Cost Of Not Trading
Like it or not there is a real opportunity cost for standing pat: not maximizing our World Series odds this season. When this season is over it is gone forever. Our chance to win the World Series in 2022 will be fully depreciated. A triple crown from CJ in 2027 won’t revive the Padres’ 2022 title chances. Making trades is all about managing risk: the risk that you will give up more than you get is one risk. There’s little doubt that Abrams et al. will be producing some all-star appearances in the future. The future value of Abrams et al. is immense. But so is the future value of Juan Soto. The difference is the present value of Juan Soto is immense, and the 2022 Padres do have the pitching and defense to make a deep post-season run. From whatever value you place on retaining Abrams et al., you have to subtract the opportunity cost of competing maximally in 2022 to understand the real risk involved in passing on Soto. That’s a murky calculation, hard to quantify and subject to opinion. But it’s not nothing.
Control What You Can, The Rest Is A Matter Of Fate
To win a title you need luck, plain and simple. The Braves were not the best team in baseball last year. Neither were any of the Giants teams that racked up 3 World Series rings since 2010. They won because they were good and things broke their way. Outcomes are a composite of process and luck. We’re reusing the Process/Outcome matrix from our last post:
A.J. can’t control the outcome directly, all he can do is pursue a good process which means fielding a competitive team with a chance to win. He absolutely has an opportunity to put the Padres in a position where a bit of good luck can lead to a World Series ring. Getting Soto makes the degree of luck that’s required so much less.
If It All Goes Sideways…
Great teams don’t always go all the way. A year from now the acquisition of Soto may not have gotten us over the hump and we may be losing games, fretting about rebuilding again, pining for the halcyon days of a bursting prospect pipeline. But there will be a team next year racking up wins, whose fans are hungry, and whose GM realizes they’ve entered their competitive window. There are teams like that every year. That’s the Padres now. If fortunes turn against us a year from now there’s every reason to think that Soto could be an instant reset button to get back into rebuilding mode. We won’t be trading him for Abrams et al., but we’ll be able to command the same level of trade value.
Coda: This Is Not A Normal Trade Opportunity
This is not a trade for Trea Turner, or Max Scherzer, or Kris Bryant. Those are great players. But they were depreciating assets when their new teams got them. None of them were 23 years old and the best hitter in baseball. None of them were under contract for a full 2 seasons after they were traded. None of them could have fetched their full trade price a year later. This is not normal. This is an opportunity for A.J. to have his cake and eat it too.
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TL;DR: If Soto is likely to have trade value a year from now that can fetch a return equivalent to what it costs in prospects to trade for him this year, A.J. will not actually have to sacrifice future value to get him. He can trade for him, maximizes the Padres chances to win this year, and flip Soto for an equal prospect haul a year from now if it all goes sideways. Trading for Soto likely makes the 2022 Padres at least as good a team as the 2021 Braves, the World Series Champions. A.J. should subtract the opportunity cost of not maximally competing in 2022 from the expected future value of keeping Abrams et al. to appropriately estimate the risk involved in not trading for Soto.