The Rocky Horror Grisham Show
Have we seen enough?
The day is October 1, 2019. The place is Nationals Park in Washington D.C. The occasion is the high stakes win-or-go-home National League Wild Card game between the Washington Nationals and the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. A tense low-scoring affair, the game went into the bottom of the 8th inning with Milwaukee holding a 3-1 lead. Brewers manager Craig Counsell wanted to leave nothing to chance and brought in the best bullpen weapon he (and arguably any team) had at his disposal — none other than future Padre Josh Hader.
Ordinarily, it would be unusual to call on Hader to get the rare six-out save. But this wasn’t an ordinary game. As fate would have it, bad luck was lying in wait for Hader, the Brewers, and especially their young right fielder.
Trent Grisham had been called up by the Brewers exactly 2 months prior to the wild card game. The Brewers drafted the highly touted Grisham out of high school with the 15th overall pick of the 2015 amateur draft. Through ups and downs in the minors, Grisham finally broke out in 2019 and justly earned his chance in The Show.
Grisham initially impressed by posting a .738 OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) in 51 games, while (with tragic irony) flashing elite defense. In short, he was showing why he was a top prospect, and even earned himself a start in the most important game in recent Brewers history. In the wild card game, he acquitted himself well, scoring one of the Brewers’ runs after walking and being driven in by former Padre Yasmani Grandal’s 2-run home run. However, what seemed like a dream would become the stuff of nightmares just a few innings later.
A confident Josh Hader took the mound, knowing he was just 6 outs away from reaching the real playoffs for the second consecutive year. After he recorded a quick strikeout, Brewers fans understandably started to believe. However, after a controversial hit-by-pitch call, a broken-bat single, and a walk, the bases were suddenly loaded.
Optimism turned to dread as then Nationals hot shot (and future Padre) Juan Soto swaggered into the highest leverage at bat of his life. With two outs and a 1-1 count, Soto turned on a high fastball from Hader, shooting it out toward Grisham in right field for a solid single. With all the runners sprinting on contact, it is likely that the game would have been tied, but that is not what happened.
Inexplicably, Grisham failed to corral the ball as he’d done thousands of times before, and the ball rolled agonizingly past him. He frantically chased the ball down and threw it in, but it was too late. Instead of just one run scoring, or at most two, all three Nationals base runners scored on Grisham’s horror show play and gave the Nationals a lead that they would never relinquish. The Nationals would go on to improbable World Series glory, and Trent Grisham would never play for the Brewers again.
Brewers management knew that having Grisham remain with the team was untenable because the fans would be hostile and unforgiving. So, while the Brewers saw a player in crisis, AJ Preller saw an opportunity. This is the genesis of Trent Grisham’s tenure as a San Diego Padre.
Following the 2019 season, Preller traded the highly-touted though disappointing Luis Urias and the middling starter Eric Lauer for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies (later traded for Yu Darvish). The early returns were very good. The Pandemic-altered 2020 season saw Trent Grisham establish himself as an inspiringly patient and pesky lead-off hitter with some legitimate power. He paired his hitting skills with elite defensive skills and quickly became an indispensable member of the playoff-bound Padres. He exuded confidence and brought some swagger, and even engaged in some jawing with the rival D*dgers.
Padres fans everywhere fell in love with Grisham, who seemed to have completely recovered psychologically from the wild card game. He was on his way to becoming the player the Brewers believed he could be. Grisham’s efforts in that short season even earned him a coveted Rawlings Gold Glove Award for his play in center field. Grisham’s career was back on track. There was even talk of a big-money contract extension, but Grisham balked.
In 2021, Grisham’s career took a dip as he failed to build on the success he’d had the previous year. He battled injuries for a good portion of the year, and never really got it going as the Padres disgracefully slumped into a catastrophic collapse.
Unfortunately, as we now know, Trent Grisham’s career has taken another large step in the wrong direction in 2022. Though there have been a few bright spots from him this year (a couple of walk-off home runs and some game-saving defensive plays), his more common penchant for being a rally killer has worn Padres fans’ patience to the nub. The low-water mark appears to have been his high-leverage, but predictably non-competitive, at bat in the 10th inning against the D*dgers on Wednesday night (9/28/22), when he struck out looking for what seems like the millionth time this year.
After decades of futility-by-design, Padres fans are quickly learning to be intolerant of non-competitive at bats in game-defining moments, and Trent Grisham is the unfortunate poster boy for their ire. Despite Grisham’s 2+ WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the season, many fans believe he’s not a championship-quality player and he buckles under the extreme pressure that major league baseball exerts. In sum, Padres fans have seen enough of Trent Grisham, at least in 2022.
But what should be done? One option would be to assign Jose Azocar as the centerfielder for the few remaining regular season games. Azocar is not going to be an analytics darling, but he’s shown he can be useful (at least compared to what Grisham has brought to the plate lately). He’s a pesky singles and occasionally doubles hitter with decent speed on the bases. He also plays okay in center field. Azocar will likely never hit a home run in Major League Baseball (please prove us wrong), and that’s a long-term problem. But short term, we really do not have a better option. In the playoffs — well, we have to get there first.
Beyond 2022, Grisham’s place is very uncertain. With Tatis missing the entire 2022 season due to unfathomably poor judgment, Ha-Seong Kim has played admirably and likely taken the shortstop job from Tatis. The next most natural position for Tatis would be center field, as it would still effectively utilize his other-worldly athletic talents.
This leaves Grisham with a very small window to prove himself as Tatis will miss the first month of the 2023 season. If Grisham is not traded in the off-season, it’s conceivable that he will be the opening day centerfielder by default. If he plays well in Tatis’s absence, that could create a selection headache for manager Bob Melvin, but that would be a good problem to have.
If, on the other hand, Grisham gets the opening day nod but continues to underwhelm, he probably deserves to be a bench piece and possibly spend some time in Triple-A. Of course, if Jurickson Profar opts out after this season, left field would be vacant and Grisham could inherit that spot, again by default.
The other obvious and possibly more attractive choice is to trade Grisham. He is still buoyed by his recent Gold Glove and his obvious defensive talent, not to mention his years of remaining team control. Perhaps other teams will see him as a change-of-scenery candidate and a high-upside-reclamation project.
Much of the consternation has to do with the Padres’ long-term outlook, and there is time for the team to reconcile its best options regarding Grisham’s future. But in the short term, the Padres have a very narrow lead in the race for the final two wild card spots, and they don’t have the luxury of inaction; a decision on Grisham’s short-term role must be made. Azocar is the obvious low-ceiling and moderately-low-floor option that all but guarantees the Padres more production than the worst of Grisham (which is what we have seen exclusively of late).
Interestingly, the hottest minor league hitter on the planet, Brandon Dixon, now sits in the Padres dugout. His career resume suggests a journeyman player with outfield experience, primarily in the corner spots, but who undoubtedly gives up some defensive acumen compared to Azocar.
Grisham is the quintessential feast or famine option. He has proven big league power, a history prior to this year of above average plate discipline, and a center field Gold Glove. However, with 155 games of the season already completed, what are the chances that Grisham has just been trending down all year and is about to regress positively to his career mean? This is an unenviable choice to have to make, and the repercussions are sure to be felt one way or another.
Of course, as we all know, baseball is a funny game. It’s entirely conceivable that if Grisham steps up (as we know he can!) in these final 7 games (and beyond because, why not?) and helps the Padres grab a couple key wins, all will be forgiven. We will happily be the first to offer a measured retraction. This is the option we will be rooting for most heavily.
Keep the faith and LFGSD!