The Stretch Run

The Final 30

The Padres entered the four game series against the Mets with a clear understanding of what the series represented for their opponent: the Mets are fighting for their season. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the Padres allowing the Mets to sweep in their first meeting revitalized a moribund Mets roster that was 30-37 up to that point. The Mets have gone 36-24 since first facing the Padres June 14th. That’s a 97 win pace across a whole season. They’ve been really good. And so the Mets entered the first game in Petco on Thursday at 66-61, just out of a Wild Card spot. A series win would leave the Mets knocking on the door of the final spot. A sweep might’ve even closed the gap entirely…

Game 1

The Mets scored early putting up a run in the first on back to back doubles to start the game, then scored again in the fourth when Luis Campusano allowed a passed ball with runners on second and third, followed by a Jeff McNeil infield single to bring the score to 3-0. The pivotal moment of the game came in the bottom of the fifth with the score still 3-0 Mets, the Padres loaded the bases with no outs for Jake Cronenworth. Mets starter Luis Severino had been struggling with control, and after an uncompetitive four-seamer way outside for ball one, he left a cutter over the heart of the plate and Cronenworth made sure he didn’t miss it:

This ball was 110.9 MPH off the bat. That is the highest exit velocity of Cronenworth’s career. It’s probably the hardest he’s ever hit a ball in his life. And the double play killed the rally. This is just baseball.

Dylan Cease didn’t have his best outing but kept the score 3-1 through 6.2 innings and Bryan Hoeing finished the 7th and pitched a clean 8th to keep the score 3-1 heading into the ninth. In the top of the ninth of a close game, the first of a four game series, the Padres elected to keep their high leverage relief arms on the bench, and instead throw Logan Gillaspie who gave up five runs. The game would end 8-3. It was much closer than the final score, but the decision to throw Gillaspie in a very close ninth inning was interesting. None of Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, or Robert Suarez had pitched the day before. They were all presumably available. But once again Mike Shildt opted not to chase a come from behind win at the expense of his best available bullpen arms later in the series.

Game 2

There was a resounding take away from game 2: Joe Musgrove had his best start of the season. His results were stellar: seven innings, one hit, nine strikeouts, no walks, and no runs allowed. But even more importantly his underlying stuff looked like vintage Joe Musgrove:

His pitch velocities were largely up from season averages, and his 4-seam fastball hit 94.3, a very good velocity for him. His spin rates were up on several pitches as well. And he threw 58 of his 75 pitches for strikes. That’s a pitcher whose body is cooperating. He’s getting the results he’s trying for.

There are a few things from the broadcast to highlight. Early in the game Musgrove appeared to be disguising his pitches well:

The key to that sweeper is the delivery looks identical to that of the fastball, and JD Martinez first sees it as a fastball headed towards the middle of the plate. Just as he commits to swing it breaks a ridiculous distance down and off the plate. That’s a really good hitter fooled badly.

He had really good break on the curveball as well:

It can be a little hard to pick up how much break this pitch has, but you can tell by watching Jose Iglesias’ body language that this was a good one. He thinks this pitch is going to end up much further inside than it does. Musgrove used this same pitch to a left hander as an out pitch later in the game:

The backdoor curveball first looks like it’s going to miss way outside before 10 inches of horizontal break back towards the left handed hitter leaves Jeff McNeil staring at strike three.

Hitters were having a hard time picking up pitch type, and anticipating the break. But the most important sign that Musgrove may finally be getting right was simply his command. Musgrove would throw a pitch to Starling Marte that showed off this command:

You can see in the replay that with no runners on Higashioka holds up a clear target and Musgrove hits it so perfectly Higashioka doesn’t even have to move the glove:

Musgrove was clearly feeling healthy in the field as well:

There are 30 games left in the season and if the Padres stick with a five man rotation that could mean up to six more starts for each of the Padres starters. Finding enough pitching to complete the stretch run has been a point of anxiety all season, but Musgrove’s outing in game 2 was strongly suggestive that he’s back in good form. He was limited to 75 pitches, and that is something of a headwind the team will have to navigate. But you couldn’t have hoped for a more positive showing than what Musgrove showed Friday, and it didn’t look like he was just getting lucky. He pitched his ass off.

Game 3

Michael King has pitched like an ace this season, but a chaotic first inning put the Padres behind early. With one out and a runner on first King seemed to have frozen Brandon Nimmo with a full count for strike three, but the pitch was called a ball and this seemed to rattle King:

The very next play was one of the strangest doubles you’ll ever see:

King would strike out the next two batters to get out of the jam but in the fourth another bizarre sequence of events would let the game get away. With two outs and a runner on first King would induce a soft line drive to Manny Machado for the third out. But Machado simply dropped it:

This ball wasn’t hit well. It was clocked at 85.5 MPH off the bat, about the same speed as a throw from a catcher with a decent arm. This is a catch Machado makes in his sleep. This wasn’t an error due to poor effort or poor fielding. This is the type of struck-by-lightning play that will happen to anyone that plays baseball for long enough. It’s an inexplicable drop, it’s not clear why it happened or how to prevent it happening again. But it ended up very costly. King would get ahead of the next hitter 1-2 before hitting Jeff McNeil with a fast ball in:

He was clearly frustrated after hitting McNeil, but something seemed off as he started the next hitter Francisco Lindor with two uncompetitive pitches very far outside. His third pitch was was a hanging sweeper that ended up in the very heart of the plate:

Towards the end of that clip you see King with a thousand-yard stare, seemingly retracing how the night could possibly have ended up the way it did. It’s easy to imagine that King might’ve been rattled early in a game where he was squeezed in the strike zone multiple times, and in which a freakish first inning got the whole night off to a strange start. He gave up five runs in five innings including a grand slam, and this lends itself easily to an assessment that he just didn’t have it Saturday night. But a closer look tells a slightly different story. The pitch to Lindor was a bad one. But it was one of only two hard hit balls he surrendered all evening, the other being a 97 MPH single off the bat of Starling Marte. He struck out seven in five innings. His stuff was electric as usual, his sweeper, slider, and sinker all earning tremendous grades by stuff plus:

He did get in to trouble by walking three and hitting McNeil in the pivotal sequence, and command is something King must constantly prioritize. When he commands well his stuff really plays. We didn’t get to see his best work Saturday but nothing we saw changes how we would think about King in a short series. There’s an ace here.

The Mets went on to win 7-1. In addition to a lopsided score, and taking two of the first three games while getting through the Padres three best starters, the loss had the demoralizing quality of several calls and bounces just going the Mets way. All that remained was Martin Perez in the final matchup Sunday.

Game 4

Martin Perez would get into trouble in the fourth inning giving up a solo home run to JD Martinez, then walking the bases full, but was relieved by Bryan Hoeing who struck out Francisco Lindor to get out of the jam. The Padres bats were very quiet, held scoreless through six innings. Jason Adam would give up another solo shot to Mark Vientos in the seventh to run the score to 2-0 Mets. The Padres would get their first real rally going in the bottom of the seventh when Machado singled, and after a Cronenworth fly out Jackson Merrill walked. The Padres would pinch hit for Luis Campusano with Luis Arraez. Arraez would work the count to 3-0. By this time the Padres offense had gone 11 straight innings without scoring a run. It’s baseball convention to automatically take a pitch 3-0, but it’s interesting to wonder what one of the best contact hitters in the game could have done with an absolutely ideal pitch down the middle:

That’s a meatball thrown by a pitcher that is certain the hitter is taking all the way. Jose Butto would make a much more competitive pitch on the edge of the zone for strike two, and would get Arraez to fly out to the warning track in center field on 3-2. Machado took third on the play.

David Peralta would bat for Bryce Johnson with two outs and runners on first and third. On the third pitch of the at bat it looked like Peralta got the big hit:

Mike Shildt was apparently upset that the Padres were not allowed to challenge the call, and appeared to be yelling himself hoarse, but was allowed to remain in the dugout. Peralta would scald the fifth pitch of the at bat down the right field line but this too landed just foul. It appeared Peralta was seeing the ball very well. On the sixth pitch of the at bat Jackson Merrill took off for second:

Merrill stole the base clean, which would have put the tying run in scoring position, and being in motion on the play would’ve increased the chance that Merrill could score on an extra base hit by Peralta. Still, attempting to steal carries the risk of making an out on the bases, and Merrill’s momentum was too great. He couldn’t stay on the bag. Shildt would note that the decision to steal was Merrill’s. Merrill is a baseball savant and despite being a rookie can be trusted to make independent decisions on the field. But execution is in part a product of experience, and he seemed to commit an avoidable baserunning error by simply underestimating his own momentum. That will not be a long term concern. But it killed the Padres only rally. Francisco Lindor didn’t miss how big the moment was. He celebrated like it was a playoff game, and rightly so. That’s what the Mets are fighting for. And it was Lindor’s savvy decision to keep the tag on even after it was clear Merrill had stolen the base that led to the out. You caught a glimpse in that celebration of how badly the Mets wanted it. Getting out of the jam was a big moment for them.

Down 2-0 going into the 8th the Padres chose to chase a win. Tanner Scott got the Mets in order in the top of the 8th. In the bottom of the 8th with one out Mason McCoy took a really good at bat. He fell behind 0-2 but made very good swing decisions, checking his swing on competitive pitches off the plate and fouling off the fourth pitch in the zone to stay alive. Here’s the whole sequence:

McCoy is on the roster for his defense, filling in while Ha-Seong Kim is recovering from a shoulder injury. McCoy will most likely not be on a postseason roster should the Padres reach the playoffs. But if they do, McCoy and his at bat Sunday may be a reason why. Jurickson Profar followed McCoy and added to his storied season with another unbelievably clutch hit:

The Padres would tie it up on Profar’s career high 21st home run and take a 2-2 tie into the ninth inning. Without hesitation they brought in Robert Suarez who set the Mets down in order in the top of the 9th, the final out coming by way of 100 MPH gas up in the zone that Lindor couldn’t quite catch up to:

With the Mets failing to score, the Padres had yet another chance at a late inning come from behind win. Edwin Diaz, the Mets $100 million closer, came in to try to get the game to extra innings. Jake Cronenworth took a very tough eight pitch at bat in which he saw four fastballs and four sliders, the last of which he just swung under for strike three. This brought Jackson Merrill up to the plate. As Cronenworth walked back to the dugout he stopped and spoke to Merrill which you can see at the end of this clip:

It’s not clear what Cronenworth said, but it’s notable that he’d just gotten a very good look at Diaz including seeing both of his pitch types multiple times.

Jackson Merrill’s precocious accomplishments at the plate this year have not escaped the notice of the Mets. They set up with a clear plan of attack. Merrill, like a lot of hitters, does have a little trouble barreling up pitches at the top corners of the zone:

With no runners on this is exactly where Mets catcher Luis Torrens calls for it on the first pitch of the at bat:

However Diaz missed with location very wide:

Torrens would keep the target up in the zone but move to the inner corner for pitch number two:

Diaz would miss badly once again:

On the third pitch of the at bat Torrens would give a target that was still high but much more in the zone than the previous targets:

The bad misses with location on the first two pitches nudged Torrens and Diaz to set up a pitch firmly in the strike zone. The sequence was eerily reminiscent of Michael King’s sequence against Lindor the night before. And like King, Diaz challenged Merrill over the heart of the plate:

Video Courtesy: @DonOrsillo

Merrill is a special player. He is having a rookie season like no other in recent memory. And the Padres need him. Because he is in fact a star. His heroics secured a split of the series, one the Mets desperately needed to win.

The Mets will move on to face the white hot Diamondbacks and will surely look back on the final game in San Diego as a missed opportunity. The Padres will move from one tough series against a team fighting for its life to another as they face the Cardinals for four games in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 2.5 games behind the Mets and still clinging to hope for the post season. This is how it’s going to be for the Padres down the stretch. One tough series after another.

The series against the Mets included signs that the Padres may have another starting pitcher down the stretch in Joe Musgrove, a vital development. It also should have removed any doubt about how remarkable a player Jackson Merrill is, and how incredible his rookie campaign is. It’s an all-timer.

The week also brought news that Yu Darvish is back with the team and throwing to live hitters, a clear ramp-up for a probable return to the team soon. Along with Ha-Seong Kim returning the Padres should be close to full strength soon. But they’ll only truly be at full strength when Fernando Tatis Jr. returns to the lineup. And as Kevin Acee reported, Tatis intends to do just that in September:

I really don’t have specific dates,” he said. “I feel like that’s more of a conversation between the training staff, the manager and myself and A.J. (Preller). But, I mean, I’m definitely playing baseball next month.”

The Padres are alive for a stretch run. They’re going to be playing meaningful baseball into September and perhaps beyond. And for such a good team, there are an unusual number of impactful players still making their way back to the roster. That makes this uncharted territory.

There are 30 games remaining. And there’s really only one thing to say about that: