The first of three games in Philadelphia saw Joe Musgrove take the mound. His postseason run thus far has been an all-timer, and there was hope he’d tilt the series back in San Diego’s favor.
Ranger Suarez took the hill for the Phillies and started the game with two strikeouts, both looking, to Ha-Seong Kim and Juan Soto. Manny Machado flied out to end the Padres half.
In the bottom of the first Kyle Schwarber put the Phillies on the board with a home run so improbable he may be the only hitter on the planet who could’ve achieved the feat. He found himself out in front of a Musgrove offspeed pitch which is normally a recipe for weak contact. But Schwarber is not a normal hitter, he might have the most raw power in the major leagues:
You can see in the video he is a little out in front, but using just his forearms is able to barrel the pitch and turn it into a 400 foot home run. It was one of those moments that reminds you major leaguers are not normal people. They can do unfathomable things.
After the Schwarber homerun, Musgrove, perhaps a little rattled, issued back to back walks. Padres fans were growing restless and Musgrove had not even thrown 20 pitches. However, as he so often has, Musgrove dug deep and induced a room service double play off the bat of Bryce Harper, allowing all of San Diego to breathe a little easier. Musgrove would end the first with the Padres trailing only 1-0.
Offense was tough to come by and neither team scored in the second or third.
In the fourth Juan Soto was hit by a pitch to start the inning. Manny Machado lined out to center field and couldn’t advance the runner. Brandon Drury was able to come through with a single. Some sloppy defense from Phillies second baseman Jean Segura allowed the Padres to tie the game at 1-1.
In their half of the fourth, the Phillies decisively broke through when, with runners on second and third and two outs, Musgrove made a nearly perfect two-strike pitch to Segura who, more out of desperation than intent, flailed at the bending slider and was able to dink the ball over Cronenworth for a soft single that effectively won the game for Philadelphia. This was the latest example of what could rightly be called “extreme BABIP luck.” In fact, of the 11 runs the Phillies have scored in the first 3 games, 6 of them have been scored off of soft contact. Breathtaking.
But the Padres had their chances to get back in the game. In the top of the fifth Rhys Hoskins booted a routine grounder from Trent Grisham and Segura failed to properly back up the play allowing Grisham to get to second. Productive outs from Austin Nola and Ha-Seong Kim cut the Phillies advantage to 3-2.
In the top of the sixth, the Padres had a golden chance to tie the game after singles by Drury and Cronenworth had runners at the corners and only one out. Bob Melvin then made the first of two questionable decisions that did not work out. Apparently not liking the matchup between Wil Myers and Phillies reliever Zach Eflin, Melvin elected to pinch-hit with Josh Bell. This was a questionable decision because the Padres desperately needed at least a sac fly to tie the game, and Myers had already hit two fly balls that would easily have done the job, including a 104 mph rocket to centerfield requiring an excellent play to make the out. Myers is also unquestionably a faster runner than Bell, so would have had a better chance of staying out of the double play. Both had an equal chance of striking out. Unfortunately, Bell grounded into an inning and momentum killing double play. The Padres also lost the benefit of Wil’s defense at first base.
Melvin made another, more obvious error in judgment in the bottom half. Musgrove, got two outs before facing Nick Castellanos. After getting two-strikes on Castellanos, Musgrove missed badly with location allowing Castellanos to drill a double to left. Musgrove had 100 pitches, and given his team 5.2 innings. Now the Phillies were threatening and Musgrove was clearly tired. A shot of the bullpen showed both Tim Hill and Luis Garcia both ready to come into the game. In the regular season, leaving the starter in works out about as often as it doesn’t, but this wasn’t the regular season. This was the postseason against a team that has shown an extreme ability to rally. In the moment it felt like the right move was to bring in a reliever and likely end the threat there. But Melvin allowed Musgrove to face Alec Bohm for the third time, ignoring Musgrove’s third time through the order stats, and got burned. Bohm rifled a double to right-center. Only then did Melvin remove Musgrove and bring in Hill who promptly ended the inning. But the mountain the Padres had to climb had just gotten twice as high.
The only other play of note occurred in the top of the ninth, when Josh Bell had led off with a single against the tiring Phillies closer, Seranthony Dominguez, who had been assigned to get a 6-out save for the first time in his career. Jurickson Profar was a tough out all night and sensing Dominguez was almost on empty, put in one of his trademark pesky at bats finally working the count full. On the payoff pitch Dominguez missed badly with location, but Profar had been tempted. The result was the most controversial play of the game. Third base umpire Todd Tischner judged Profar to have “gone around” on his swing and rung him up. Replays would show that the “swing” was almost perfectly between gong around and holding up. Tischner was faced with a nightmare judgment call and, as umpires are like to do, gave the home team the benefit of the doubt.
Profar, the perpetually sunny and happy-go-lucky personality became irate and was ejected from the game for his animated protest. The magnitude of the moment seemed to imbue Dominguez with one final rush of adrenaline and he closed out the game.
The Padres did not have an extra base hit in Friday’s game and only scored 1 earned run. Juan Soto and Manny Machado disappointed at the plate.
It is noteworthy that through 10 postseason games, Juan Soto’s OPS is still in the .500s, a far cry from his postseason numbers he put up as a Washington National when he helped lead them to improbable World Series glory in 2019. Soto’s truthers point out that when the Padres have needed a big hit in this postseason, Soto has often delivered. But what is undeniably missing is the intimidation factor (and its ripple effects) Juan Soto is supposed to bring to this lineup. The slug just hasn’t been there. The fear that a misplaced pitch to Soto with runners on could effectively decide the game, just isn’t present right now the way it is with say, Bryce Harper. It should be noted that Soto had by far the hardest hit ball of the game at a scorching 112 mph. Unfortunately it was 112 mph into the ground a la Eric Hosmer, that only resulted in an out. A ball hit that hard should be 15 rows in the seats. Soto’s swing has just looked a bit off, and he is topping the ball so that even when he gets his barrel to the ball, it’s often going for outs or just singles instead of doubles and homeruns. The latter is what made Juan Soto one of the most feared hitters in the game and why the Padres gave up the farm to acquire him. We are overdue for a “Juan Soto game,” but time is growing short. It should also be noted that in the same week he was given a surprise nomination for a gold glove, he hasn’t exactly been putting on a clinic in right field: losing a ball in the sun on Wednesday and misjudging a few balls on Friday. We need better from him on both sides of the ball. We know he’s capable.
Manny was the other high profile no-show on Friday night. He endured a difficult off-day as he found out that, despite wowing even dodgers fans with his silky defense, he was (criminally) not even nominated for a gold glove. Some thought the insult would fire Manny up and drive him to have one of those games, but that didn’t happen.
This is the NLCS, when big players meet big moments— when legends are born and cemented. Game 3 felt winnable almost right through the end. A big night from either Soto or Manny could have easily changed the result, but that wasn’t in the cards. We have no doubt that both Manny’s and Soto’s best games in this postseason are still ahead of us.
Friday night’s game, in many ways, felt more like a regular season game than an NLCS showcase. Both teams were far from their best, managers included. Though now down 2-1 in the series, the Padres have never been comprehensively beaten by the Phillies. Each of the losses in this series were hotly contested affairs where just one clutch hit might’ve changed the outcome. The Phillies have gotten ridiculously lucky on BABIP, but that can’t last forever (can it?). Friday night understandably left a pit the stomach of Padres fans. In a way, though, nothing has changed for the Padres, they are still three wins away from the World Series. Keep the faith.