A Test Of Faith
Brother versus brother, BABIP, Humility
There was no joy on Tuesday, but Wednesday was a new day. The previous night’s soirée was replaced by a high-noon showdown (actual start time 1:35 pm). Analysis of game one led to theories that the Padres had emptied the tank to defeat the titans from L.A., and had nothing left. Others felt that game one was a message to the Padres faithful that acts of cringe and hubris would be punished. Those thoughts were top of mind as fans walked to the stadium under the glistening sun only 16 hours after the opening volleys of the NLCS ended with a Padres 1-0 deficit. Wednesday would be the last day the Padres played in their hometown before facing three daunting away games in Philadelphia.
Fans were chastened after game one. No new musical tributes or premature murals were discovered Wednesday morning. Humility replaced the previous day’s hubris. At first pitch, the sun was high above casting a withering heat across Petco Park.
Blake Snell was on the mound for the Padres, the former Cy Young winner and World Series veteran. Padres fans know Snell as the pitcher with unquestionably the best stuff of the starting rotation. The left hander threw 97 MPH fastballs with tons of movement and mixed in nosediving sliders and change of pace curveballs that he used to rack-up an astonishing 12 strikeouts per 9 innings average across the season, easily leading the club’s starters. While Darvish was rightfully the game one starter due to his combination of high ceiling and high floor performance, Snell had a case to make for the most dominant pitcher on the staff. When things were going right. A trope in Padres fandom is that in every Blake Snell start you either get Good Snell or Bad Snell. On his best days it’s hard to understand how anyone squares him up. On his worst day he hasn’t made it out of the first inning. But it had been a very long time since Bad Snell had shown up.
Things started well. Snell worked an easy first inducing soft contact to retire the side in order. The Padres could not score after a two out Manny Machado double in the bottom half.
The second inning saw Snell induce weak contact to the first three hitters Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm. Striking out every hitter is impossible and it’s fairer to say that the job of the pitcher is to prevent hard contact or walks. Snell certainly did his job against the first three hitters. But the BABIP Gods intervened. All three hitters saw their meekly struck hits fall for singles, the third driving in a run. The Phillies led 1-0 in the top of the second.
We’ve talked a lot about how outcomes don’t always represent the underlying process. Bad processes sometimes lead to good outcomes. This was certainly the case for the Phillies. Definitionally that meant the opposite for Snell. His process was excellent, no hard contact or walks through the first six hitters of the game. But the outcome was a 1-0 deficit, with another two runners on.
Snell mowed down Jean Segura for a swinging strikeout and it seemed for a moment he was going to right the ship. Next up Matt Vierling hit a fly ball to right field that looked like a routine out, but:
Apparently, even the sun is brighter in the postseason. We’ve all been in Soto’s shoes. When the ball is falling down towards you lost in the searing sun it’s nearly impossible not to flinch away at that moment. Snell was through the first eight hitters of the game without a walk or a hard hit ball, but was losing 2-0.
With runners on second and third Snell jammed Edmundo Sosa with a four seam fastball getting him to pop up to left. But again:
Snell had gone through the entire Phillies order doing exactly what was asked of him, but was down 3-0. Schwarber stepped in as the lineup turned over and hit an RBI groundout. Rhys Hoskins flied out to right to end the disaster inning but the damage was done. The Padres were losing 4-0, twice the deficit that had proved insurmountable the night before, after only two innings. Worse, Snell’s pitch count was extremely high. The results of that inning can be fairly summed up on a process/outcomes matrix thusly:
Baseball is like that. It doesn’t matter how well you play, all that matters in the end is the score. Luck is a factor. Many wondered if the uncanny BABIP luck the Phillies had was further punishment for the many displays of hubris and cringe from the Padres fanbase prior to game one. Whatever the explanation there was serious reason for worry among the the Padres faithful.
The Phillies pitcher was their second ace Aaron Nola, the younger brother of Padres catcher Austin Nola. The two had faced each other in a tense matchup earlier in the year and Austin had driven in the winning run off his younger brother. But between the two, Aaron was the more decorated player having made an all-star team and twice been voted into the top 10 in Cy Young award contention. Aaron now had an early 4-0 lead against a reeling Padres offense that had been completely shut down the night before.
Aaron Nola had looked good in the first inning striking out two and allowing no runs. But before he could record an out in the second he was called for Drury duty.
Next up was the powerful Josh Bell who had arrived to the Padres as part of the biggest trade deadline deal of all-time. His strength was legendary, yet he had made the final out the night before with an uncompetitive at bat. Things change quickly in baseball.
The deficit was cut in half. Finally seeing some slug from the lineup energized the stadium. The next three Padres were retired to end the inning, but they all put the ball in play with decent contact. It appeared the Padres were seeing Aaron Nola pretty well at the plate, and that was cause for hope.
Showing the true ace he is, Snell rebounded from the BABIP trial of the second inning and worked a dominant third and fourth, thereby saving the bullpen from having to prematurely intervene. The Padres hitters drove a couple of balls through their half of the third and the fourth but could not get a rally going.
In the fifth Snell issued his only walk of the game to the colossus Kyle Schwarber, but no damage was done as Snell struck out the side ending his night with 5 innings, 6 strikeouts, and 4 runs that were technically “earned” runs in the box score. The Padres had gotten Good Snell but still trailed 4-2.
In the bottom of the fifth Ha-Seong Kim got a single off of Aaron Nola to start the frame. Trent Grisham flied out bringing up Austin Nola to face his younger brother. The cameras captured their father A.J. Nola in the stands wearing a Phillies jersey and a Padres hat. Hard to say who was the most nervous during this duel.
The most remarkable thing on that play is not the fact that it is two brothers facing each other in a high leverage at bat in the league championship series. Watch the clip again and you’ll see that Ha-Seong Kim scored from first on a single. Even on a hit and run play, that is almost unheard of. It was yet another accomplishment for the Korean superstar, and vindication of the faith A.J. Preller placed in him when he awarded a large guaranteed contract before Kim had ever played a game in the majors. Kim is a special player doing special things.
The Padres trailed only 4-3 now and the top of the order was coming. Profar kept the rally going with a single moving Austin Nola to third. That brought up Juan Soto. The player for which the Padres gave up the biggest prospect haul ever seen. The Dominican prodigy who’s clutch World Series home runs at age 20 helped secure the title for the Nationals in 2019. Juan Soto. Now a Padre. Up in the league championship series with the tying run on base:
It’s hard to overstate how disconcerting game one had been. It was traumatizing. The cringe and the hubris becoming a national story along with losing game one and getting dominated by the opposing pitchers felt like the rug was being pulled on a magical season. But Juan Soto is a Padre. Even now, it’s still hard to believe. And he’d just given the team new life.
The 4-0 deficit was erased, the game was now tied 4-4, and the Padres were still threatening. Manny Machado was up, and credit has to be given to Aaron Nola who is an absolute gamer. Despite giving up the lead, he faced down the most valuable player in the National League, and struck Machado out. That was the end of the day for Nola.
Former Padre Brad Hand was brought in to put out the fire, but he hit Jake Cronenworth to load the bases. That brought up Brandon Drury once again. Drury had set off fireworks on Opening Day 2.0 when he’d added the most joyous moment to the lore of Slam Diego to date. Anyone watching the at bat Wednesday couldn’t help but think of that moment as he stepped in. With the bases loaded and two outs, Drury gave Hand a proper postseason duel and fought to a full-count. In the highest leverag at bt of Drury’s career, he came through:
Though maybe not as glamorous as the aforementioned grand slam, Drury’s solid single to center was no less dramatic as it gave the Padres their first lead of the series. The fan reaction was special. The highlights are full of the stadium reaction but we particularly enjoyed this clip shared by the University of San Diego baseball team:
This was everyone watching at that moment. In the stadium it was bedlam. But even those watching the action on the TV broadcast were overcome by what a huge moment that was. Assertions that the Padres’ season was over had been greatly exaggerated. On the contrary, the season was very much alive. The Padres were playing the way we knew they could. The horrendous BABIP luck of the second inning wasn’t going to vanquish their hopes today.
Josh Bell would step in next and add another run on a single to right field that he hit so hard he almost forgot to run to first. He seemed to be finding himself. The Padres would end the fifth leading 7-4.
The score was still 7-4 in the bottom of the seventh when Manny Machado put an exclamation point on the Padres comeback:
The game would end 8-5 with Josh Hader looking better than ever as he emphatically slammed the door on the Phillies. The series, evened 1-1, now heads to Philadelphia. For differing reasons, both teams would’ve taken this result from the first two games. Padres fans, feeling anxious that the cringey and irresponsible premature antics would doom them to a sweep by the Phillies, felt relief that the baseball Gods had just allowed them a chance at redemption. For their part, the Phillies fans would feel some relief at stealing one from the Padres on their home turf.
This season (and historically) the Padres have played their worst baseball in day games and also when featured on a national broadcast. On Wednesday, they played one of the best games in franchise history in front of a national audience and under the golden California sun. They showed yet another level of fight. This was the win probability graph through the game:
Wednesday’s game was a test of faith. It won’t be the last. That’s baseball. Facing adversity is what this team has done all year. We can all take an example from Ryan Cohen who never lost his faith, and on Wednesday the enthusiasm and positivity he brings was on display for the entire nation to see:
This needs to be all of us. Passion without hubris or cringe. Relentless support.
The Padres are three games away from the World Series but so are their opponents. Every game is a test. Keep the faith.
LFGSD