Love this, especially the comparison of the HR distances in Petco and Boston. You can get to Pivetta's HR luck (or not) a different way, which is to look at his xFIP vs his FIP. For his pre-2025 career, his FIP was 4.36 compared to a 3.96 xFIP. At home, the gap between his FIP and xFIP was 54bps compared to 24bps on the road, which is definitely not insignificant.
This year, the situation has reversed, and his unsustainably low 4.2% HR/FB% means his xFIP is almost a full run higher than his FIP (though still excellent). In fact, Pivetta's career HR/FB% is higher than the league's HR/FB% as a whole in each season of his career. So, is there a reason he's had such good luck other than 3 starts in Petco in April? His IFFB% is more than double his career average and is third in MLB this year among qualified starters even though his LD/GB/FB split is within his career norms. It's probably too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but he is getting more of his pop ups from the bottom of the zone, which makes me think it isn't driven by his 4 seamer but by the soft stuff and the IFFB% is up on each of the cutter, slider and curve, leading to much better run values. The stuff models haven't really moved from last year, so I'm not seeing something that says his HR/FB% will not regress to something closer to his career average. Let's hope there's some Niebla magic going on here!
Pivetta has looked exceptional. And Cease seems simply overrated. All the national pundits are talking about how he will command $200M+ on the open market next year (with no mention of King), but I think all they’re buying is hype and stuff+. King had more quality starts last year, and was much more consistent (outside of his clunky April). Cease was either no-hitting people or coughing up 4 ER before the 6th inning. A consistent starter keeps you in more ballgames and leads to more wins. My armchair prediction is that Cease will put up an ERA north of 3.75.
I think you said it best about Hart, his starts will be a high-wire act.
I hope your next article includes the news that Yuli Gurriel was finally released and the Pads call up Eugy or Ornelas.
This team is so fun to watch, love the heart and soul that they play with. All hail the grit squad!
Love this, especially the comparison of the HR distances in Petco and Boston. You can get to Pivetta's HR luck (or not) a different way, which is to look at his xFIP vs his FIP. For his pre-2025 career, his FIP was 4.36 compared to a 3.96 xFIP. At home, the gap between his FIP and xFIP was 54bps compared to 24bps on the road, which is definitely not insignificant.
This year, the situation has reversed, and his unsustainably low 4.2% HR/FB% means his xFIP is almost a full run higher than his FIP (though still excellent). In fact, Pivetta's career HR/FB% is higher than the league's HR/FB% as a whole in each season of his career. So, is there a reason he's had such good luck other than 3 starts in Petco in April? His IFFB% is more than double his career average and is third in MLB this year among qualified starters even though his LD/GB/FB split is within his career norms. It's probably too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but he is getting more of his pop ups from the bottom of the zone, which makes me think it isn't driven by his 4 seamer but by the soft stuff and the IFFB% is up on each of the cutter, slider and curve, leading to much better run values. The stuff models haven't really moved from last year, so I'm not seeing something that says his HR/FB% will not regress to something closer to his career average. Let's hope there's some Niebla magic going on here!
Pivetta has looked exceptional. And Cease seems simply overrated. All the national pundits are talking about how he will command $200M+ on the open market next year (with no mention of King), but I think all they’re buying is hype and stuff+. King had more quality starts last year, and was much more consistent (outside of his clunky April). Cease was either no-hitting people or coughing up 4 ER before the 6th inning. A consistent starter keeps you in more ballgames and leads to more wins. My armchair prediction is that Cease will put up an ERA north of 3.75.
I think you said it best about Hart, his starts will be a high-wire act.
I hope your next article includes the news that Yuli Gurriel was finally released and the Pads call up Eugy or Ornelas.
This team is so fun to watch, love the heart and soul that they play with. All hail the grit squad!