This is the most complete Padre team ever with the highest ceiling.
Only recent rival is 2024. But I’d take 2025…with good health (esp for Darvish and King).
2024- players that we don’t have this year: Profar, Higgy, Solano, Peralta, T Scott, HA Kim (injured in mid Aug), Joe Musgrove (ucl about to bust, pitches - few innings in one playoff game)
If playoffs started today, 2025 vs 2024:
- healthy Arraez >= injured Arraez
- Fermin + Diaz >= Higgy+ Campy
- Laureano / O’Hearn / Sheets in LF vs Profar- tough one but the ceiling is as high or higher and floor seems higher too
- healthy Tatis vs recovering from a Fractured leg Tatis
- Sheets / O’Hearn / Laureano roughly equal to Peralta / Solano as bench bats
- fully healthy Manny vs still recovering Manny
- Pivetta / King / Darvish / Cease / Vasquez + Sears + Cortes > King / Darvish / Joe M on his way to TJ / etc.
Cease 2025 < 2024 but potential to reach 2024 is clear and semi-reasonable to expect
2025 bullpen > 2024 bullpen overall. Miller replaces Scott. At least even. (Though Scott was a great weapon vs LHH like Ohtani.) Morejon, Peralta better in 2025. Adam and Estrada are too arguably. Suarez no worse than 2024. Morgan added in 2025. Reynolds, Hoeing, Marinaccio as depth pieces. Matsui arguably worse but still capable.
Lineup has all the pieces. Power, speed, contact, optionality.
Defense has improved vs 2024 if they play O’Hearn at 1B.
Better depth: Sheets, Iglesias, Wade, Johnson, Wagner, and Diaz vs Solano, Peralta, Diaz, Wade, Lockridge, Nick Ahmed
Starting Pitching: more upside overall (assuming healthy Yu and King) with Pivetta as the 4 and Vasquez pitching better and depth options with Cortes and Sears. Plus more LHP to provide optionality to play matchups, openers, etc.
Still not wild about the Fermin trade but we shall see. Would’ve been stoked with just the Orioles and Brewer trades combined with shipping out Cease for a young pitcher / prospects. I suppose Preller felt the team was better with Cease on it (his performance this year and historically in the postseason makes this debatable) or that the value recouped via trade would have been less than the compensatory draft pick we’ll get after he rejects the QO.
Really wish we didn’t part with Bergert. I mean he had the same WAR this year as Fermin (1.2) with more years of control. To throw in Kolek on top of that seems wild. I get JP Sears offsets their loss a little (assuming Petco conditions help and Niebla can work some magic) but Bergert and Kolek both had the goods to be serviceable back end starters for the next 4-5 years. Is it worth it to push all the chips in when the postseason is a literal crapshoot?
The Miller trade seems more defensible, but LDV for someone who had a UCL sprain in 2023 and throws 100+ (a TJ ticking time bomb?) makes me nervous. No question it improves the big league club now though, and Preller certainly lives for today.
As much of a skeptic as I am, there’s no denying Preller makes things exciting, and arguably shows he wants to win more than anyone else in baseball. He’s indisputably one of the best drafters and scouts in the game. His off season trades have been nothing short of impressive (Snell, Darvish, Musgrove, Cronenworth, King, Cease). But man does he make me shit bricks on deadline day.
Thanks Arch. Love the blog. Glad to see Bogarts is finally earning his pay. Call me crazy but I think this could be the year we finally arrive in the promised land.
Also, only a couple weeks but post ASG Arraez complete fire. 180 wRC+ in 63 PA. Maybe small sample but encouraging nonetheless. How long until we maybe decide his hand is okay. Haven't noticed his painful reactions to batted balls.
On another of your prior posts, Tatis is a bit of an enigma. Three versions of him:
Start of season to May 3: 133 PA, 10.5 BB%, 15.0 K%, 246 ISO, 356 BABIP, 94.1 EV, 184 wRC+
The slump: May 4- Jun 7: 134 PA, 8.2 BB%, 22.4 K%, 154 ISO, 205 BABIP, 93.2 EV, 67 wRC+
An effective but different player over last two months: on base but low ISO and lowish EV. 4 HR over this last stretch, 1 per 50 PA. Maybe still lingering something from the initial and subsequent hits on his forearm, wrist and hands and maybe a change in approach?
I would suggest Cease cut his hair, stop the unnecessary movement adjusting his hair and cap. Seems very distracting and I wonder if it contributes to him loosing concentration while pitching.
I am liking the Miller addition. Unintuitive to add to an already very good bullpen, like the flattening part of a marginal value curve. Adding more resources to it theoretically add less marginal value than applying resources elsewhere. But still have PTSD from LA last year during that 25 (22?) inning scoring drought, where LA could just send effective reliever after effective reliever, stymying a pretty good offense.
That assumes a playoff scenario but assuming Laureano and O'Hearn perform at all similarly as they did in Baltimore, this team feels playoff bound (88.9% on the notoriously volatile arguably mostly useless FG playoff odds). A dogfight as you suggest.
But assuming they get into playoff games, will be very, very nice to have that many bullets in the metaphorical chamber.
Excellent work... again.
This is the most complete Padre team ever with the highest ceiling.
Only recent rival is 2024. But I’d take 2025…with good health (esp for Darvish and King).
2024- players that we don’t have this year: Profar, Higgy, Solano, Peralta, T Scott, HA Kim (injured in mid Aug), Joe Musgrove (ucl about to bust, pitches - few innings in one playoff game)
If playoffs started today, 2025 vs 2024:
- healthy Arraez >= injured Arraez
- Fermin + Diaz >= Higgy+ Campy
- Laureano / O’Hearn / Sheets in LF vs Profar- tough one but the ceiling is as high or higher and floor seems higher too
- healthy Tatis vs recovering from a Fractured leg Tatis
- Sheets / O’Hearn / Laureano roughly equal to Peralta / Solano as bench bats
- fully healthy Manny vs still recovering Manny
- Pivetta / King / Darvish / Cease / Vasquez + Sears + Cortes > King / Darvish / Joe M on his way to TJ / etc.
Cease 2025 < 2024 but potential to reach 2024 is clear and semi-reasonable to expect
2025 bullpen > 2024 bullpen overall. Miller replaces Scott. At least even. (Though Scott was a great weapon vs LHH like Ohtani.) Morejon, Peralta better in 2025. Adam and Estrada are too arguably. Suarez no worse than 2024. Morgan added in 2025. Reynolds, Hoeing, Marinaccio as depth pieces. Matsui arguably worse but still capable.
Lineup has all the pieces. Power, speed, contact, optionality.
Defense has improved vs 2024 if they play O’Hearn at 1B.
Better depth: Sheets, Iglesias, Wade, Johnson, Wagner, and Diaz vs Solano, Peralta, Diaz, Wade, Lockridge, Nick Ahmed
Starting Pitching: more upside overall (assuming healthy Yu and King) with Pivetta as the 4 and Vasquez pitching better and depth options with Cortes and Sears. Plus more LHP to provide optionality to play matchups, openers, etc.
Bullpen: more impact arms and reliable depth.
This team is LOADED.
Also- schedule lines up nicely. With health, Padres should win 30+. 90 wins or more.
Here is my assessment.
53 games left.
Of those, 32 games (17 at Petco, 15 on road) each of them got LOTS worse:
Cards: Lost 4 pitchers (play them in 3 games)
Giants: Doval, Yaz, Rogers (7 games)
Twins- lost 10 guys off their mlb roster (3 games)
Dbacks- lost major offense (Naylor, Suarez), Merrill Kelly and Randall Grichuk (6 games) and Paul Seawald
White Sox - Slater and lost some pitching (3 games)
Orioles- lots of bullpen pitching, one starter and lots of hitting (3 games)
Rockies- hitting and pitching (7 games) and were really bad before this
They have 9 games vs teams that got a little better, maybe- Brewers, Red Sox, Reds (3 games vs each- ALL AT PETCO)
They have 12 games against teams that will be better (9 are road games):
Mariners- big additions (3 games)
Mets- bolstered bullpen in a big way (3 games); lineup improved marginally
Dodgers- small additions raise floor but lots of talent coming back from injuries (6 games)
Still not wild about the Fermin trade but we shall see. Would’ve been stoked with just the Orioles and Brewer trades combined with shipping out Cease for a young pitcher / prospects. I suppose Preller felt the team was better with Cease on it (his performance this year and historically in the postseason makes this debatable) or that the value recouped via trade would have been less than the compensatory draft pick we’ll get after he rejects the QO.
Really wish we didn’t part with Bergert. I mean he had the same WAR this year as Fermin (1.2) with more years of control. To throw in Kolek on top of that seems wild. I get JP Sears offsets their loss a little (assuming Petco conditions help and Niebla can work some magic) but Bergert and Kolek both had the goods to be serviceable back end starters for the next 4-5 years. Is it worth it to push all the chips in when the postseason is a literal crapshoot?
The Miller trade seems more defensible, but LDV for someone who had a UCL sprain in 2023 and throws 100+ (a TJ ticking time bomb?) makes me nervous. No question it improves the big league club now though, and Preller certainly lives for today.
As much of a skeptic as I am, there’s no denying Preller makes things exciting, and arguably shows he wants to win more than anyone else in baseball. He’s indisputably one of the best drafters and scouts in the game. His off season trades have been nothing short of impressive (Snell, Darvish, Musgrove, Cronenworth, King, Cease). But man does he make me shit bricks on deadline day.
Thanks Arch. Love the blog. Glad to see Bogarts is finally earning his pay. Call me crazy but I think this could be the year we finally arrive in the promised land.
Also, only a couple weeks but post ASG Arraez complete fire. 180 wRC+ in 63 PA. Maybe small sample but encouraging nonetheless. How long until we maybe decide his hand is okay. Haven't noticed his painful reactions to batted balls.
On another of your prior posts, Tatis is a bit of an enigma. Three versions of him:
Start of season to May 3: 133 PA, 10.5 BB%, 15.0 K%, 246 ISO, 356 BABIP, 94.1 EV, 184 wRC+
The slump: May 4- Jun 7: 134 PA, 8.2 BB%, 22.4 K%, 154 ISO, 205 BABIP, 93.2 EV, 67 wRC+
Leadoff: Jun 8 -Aug1: 208 PA, 17.3 BB%, 16.8 K%, 143 ISO, 326 BABIP, 92.1 EV, 140 wRC+
An effective but different player over last two months: on base but low ISO and lowish EV. 4 HR over this last stretch, 1 per 50 PA. Maybe still lingering something from the initial and subsequent hits on his forearm, wrist and hands and maybe a change in approach?
I would suggest Cease cut his hair, stop the unnecessary movement adjusting his hair and cap. Seems very distracting and I wonder if it contributes to him loosing concentration while pitching.
I am liking the Miller addition. Unintuitive to add to an already very good bullpen, like the flattening part of a marginal value curve. Adding more resources to it theoretically add less marginal value than applying resources elsewhere. But still have PTSD from LA last year during that 25 (22?) inning scoring drought, where LA could just send effective reliever after effective reliever, stymying a pretty good offense.
That assumes a playoff scenario but assuming Laureano and O'Hearn perform at all similarly as they did in Baltimore, this team feels playoff bound (88.9% on the notoriously volatile arguably mostly useless FG playoff odds). A dogfight as you suggest.
But assuming they get into playoff games, will be very, very nice to have that many bullets in the metaphorical chamber.
Also- schedule lines up nicely. With health, Padres should win 30+. 90 wins or more.
Here is my assessment.
53 games left.
Of those, 32 games (17 at Petco, 15 on road) each of them got LOTS worse:
Cards: Lost 4 pitchers (play them in 3 games)
Giants: Doval, Yaz, Rogers (7 games)
Twins- lost 10 guys off their mlb roster (3 games)
Dbacks- lost major offense (Naylor, Suarez), Merrill Kelly and Randall Grichuk (6 games) and Paul Seawald
White Sox - Slater and lost some pitching (3 games)
Orioles- lots of bullpen pitching, one starter and lots of hitting (3 games)
Rockies- hitting and pitching (7 games) and were really bad before this
They have 9 games vs teams that got a little better, maybe- Brewers, Red Sox, Reds (3 games vs each- ALL AT PETCO)
They have 12 games against teams that will be better (9 are road games):
Mariners- big additions (3 games)
Mets- bolstered bullpen in a big way (3 games); lineup improved marginally
Dodgers- small additions raise floor but lots of talent coming back from injuries (6 games)