Better Than A Blowout
Deadline implications on display Friday night
Cover Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated
It’s natural to want certainty. We spend money on things like Treasury Bills and five-year warranties because we like the security they (at least appear to) offer. When we have to make speculative decisions in uncertain conditions, most of us have brains that say “no, I don’t like this” and search for a way out.
As the Padres approach the trade deadline, the team is being forced to make speculative decisions in uncertain conditions. Are we a contender or not? Should we push for the playoffs or look for a future? It’s common in these situations to fall back on heuristics: mental shortcuts meant to simplify problems and avoid getting cognitive overload. And the heuristic that many people have seized on is the .500 mark. “If the Padres are at .500 by the deadline,” the thinking goes, “that will prove we’re contenders!”
Of course, there’s nothing magic about the .500 mark. Teams that were below .500 at the trade deadline have gone on to win the World Series, including recently (the 2021 Braves). The uncomfortable truth is that all we’re likely to know by the trade deadline is that this team could make a run to the title, but it’s more likely that they won’t make the playoffs at all. That’s true now, and it will be true to some degree on July 31.
They lost a game in Toronto. That gives them 21 more losses left in the season before it’s all but certain they’ll miss the playoffs. But they are not dead yet. Fangraphs has a reasonable methodology to predict playoff odds, here it was before Friday night’s game:
The team’s shortcomings are well understood. The lack of clutch is well documented and is explained by a combination of an extreme approach to hitting leveraged by bad luck. Austin Nola played far below replacement level but got a lot of at bats partly because Campusano was hurt and partly because Melvin kept putting Nola in the lineup for reasons that are difficult to explain. The bullpen performed well early but was due for regression, and – sure enough – that happened in July, turning several potential wins into losses. Devastatingly bad performances from DH have plagued the team all year. And Machado and Bogaerts have spent the year in should-be-typed-in-all-caps-level SLUMPS.
That’s the bad (atrocious?) news. The good news is that there’s reason to believe that many of those problems have solutions. Machado has righted the ship: He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball in July. He’s officially having a good season again. Bogaerts has transformed into CortiXander after a well-timed medical treatment over the All-Star break.
Nola is in AAA and Campusano is back in the lineup along with Gary Sanchez. Clutch hitting remains the team’s white whale, but upgrades to DH and the bullpen remain modifiable risk factors. It’s worth noting that these are the improvements our mid-June analysis suggested were likely to be the right levers to pull. That’s why Friday’s game, and lineup changes, are so interesting:
We’ve spent a lot of words discussing why it’s time to move away from the Padres preseason plans for DH. Now, the team finally appears to be trying something else. Taylor Kohlwey was given DH duties as the Padres vigorously search for ways to be successful. This was the dynamism we felt was lacking from the first half of the season. Kohlwey may not be the answer, but at a minimum, this start provides change, and in this case, change seems to be the only route to better performance. Kohlwey’s start is a breath of fresh air.
In Friday’s game the Padres took on Tiger’s rookie Reese Olson and leapt out to a 5-0 lead after a pair of home runs from Juan Soto and an RBI triple from the embattled Jake Cronenworth. Seth Lugo pitched well, allowing only 2 ER in 6 IP while striking out 7. Unfortunately, the bullpen woes continued, as Nick Martinez gave up a two-run homer in the 7th to make it 5-4. By our math, 5-4 is a one-run game, and one-run games have bedeviled the team all year.
The 2022 Padres had a recipe at the end of the game:
Source: Fox Sports MLB
They thought they could bring it into 2023. But things just don’t go according to plans in baseball.
Friday marked the first time the Padres had played Robert Suarez since his fabled performance in the cleansing October rain. On that night he struck out Gavin Lux to end the eighth on three straight fastballs that clocked 97, 98, and 98 on the radar gun. His NLDS performance contributed to a 5-year $46 million contract after the season…and then he got hurt. He hadn’t thrown a pitch for the Padres in 2023 before Friday.
You pay a reliever $46 million to pitch in high-leverage situations, and Suarez was thrown right into such a situation against the Tigers. The Padres led 5-4 in a game that felt like it had outsized importance because of the trade deadline. His first pitch was a 98 MPH fastball for a strike. A 97 MPH sinker and two 99 MPH fastballs followed, the latter inducing a feeble swing from Matt Vierling that produced a soft grounder to first. Weak ground balls from Javy Baez and Nick Maton then ended the inning, the first time the Tigers had gone down in order in the game.
Padres fans have been looking forward to Suarez’ return all year. Most of us were so happy to see him back that any result short of his arm flying out of the socket and landing in the third row would have been deemed “pretty encouraging”. As it happened, he pitched a 1-2-3 inning. He touched 99 MPH in every at-bat. By any measure, this was encouraging.
Josh Hader slammed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth.
And then Hader slammed the door shut in the ninth, as he’s been known to do.
This was the first game of the season in which we saw the 2023 Padres as they were envisioned. Ha-Seong Kim has taken a leap offensively. Tatis, Soto, Machado, and Bogaerts appear (mostly) healthy and back in form. Jake Cronenworth put the ball in play all four at bats and even took a short compact swing each time up (a bit ironic, since he was in the biggest ballpark in the league). Lugo turned in a solid start and Suarez and Hader nailed down the win. Where have you been all season, 2023 Padres?
Luck plays a major role in every baseball game. It also plays a role off the field. Earlier this season, Ha-Seong Kim kicked a water cooler he thought was empty, but it turned out to be full, and Kim hurt his foot…a little. He missed one game. This week, the Mariners – who are basically the Padres’ American League analogue – suffered a blow when rising star Jarred Kelenic kicked a cooler he thought was empty, but it turned out to be full, and he broke his foot and will be out for several weeks, maybe longer. This proves two things: 1) Baseball needs some sort of cooler-fullness labeling system; 2) Luck plays a major role in baseball.
Kelenic clearly knew what his injury meant to his teams’ post-season hopes.
Source: Jomboy Media
Kelenic’s pain is palpable; he clearly knows how his teammates and fans will be affected by his injury. He did something that a lot of players do – that our players have done – but suffered a far worse penalty than normal. The Padres should consider that our luck could be even worse.
The Padres are approaching the two-thirds mark of the season, and their roster is mostly intact. They have a team that can beat any other team in a short series. They’re top-heavy, but that can be an advantage in the most difficult matchups, and that top-end talent is second to none. They have survived trials that other similar teams have not. Giving up on that, even though chances to make the post season are low, would still be giving up a lot.
Last offseason, Peter Seidler was asked about the financial risk of spending so much on a roster. He replied: “When we talk about risk, there’s a risk to doing nothing.” And he’s right: Standing still is not necessarily “safe”.
As we get near the trade deadline, each game takes on outsized importance if the team hasn’t yet decided on a strategy. If the Padres are on the fence about being buyers or sellers, then the rational move is to keep collecting information until they have to go one way or the other. On the other hand, if the team knows that they’re going to compete no matter what, then doing nothing carries a risk. Whatever they send out in a trade will be in return for players to help the team win right now, emphasis on the right now! Each game that passes diminishes the value of whatever they get back. If the Padres know they’re all-in, then making trades that will impact the nine games left until the deadline is the less-risky move. Teams that know what they want are already making deals: The Rangers just picked up Aroldis Chapman from the Kansas City Peasants. Surely, there are other teams willing to deal at this point. As long as that’s true, there is no point in waiting until more games are played before acquiring pieces that raise the odds of salvaging this year.
The win on Friday was only the sixth one-run game the Padres have won this season. Padres Twitter took notice:
The fan base also noted the strange feeling that the win invoked:
It was – without a doubt – a good feeling. There’s no insurmountable barrier keeping the rest of the season from being filled with good feelings. Of course, there’s also no guarantee…we simply don’t have the security we’d like. But we do have Juan Soto…and Tatis, and Machado, and Hader, and now also Robert Suarez. Maybe more days that feel like last Friday are ahead.