I think whenever we look at bunt attempts, we should further differentiate by count. For example, Merrill has a .534/.490 wOBA/xwOBA on 0-0 counts. I don't want to give away that swing in any situation. If the first pitch is not to his liking, but a ball, continue to swing away. But if he falls behind 0-1 (a count through which his wRC+ is only 100), I could at least understand the strategy.
I don't know if the thinking was that Merrill's bunt would catch LA off guard and give him to the best chance to get off base, not necessarily treat it as a sacrifice. At the time, I would have much preferred he showed bunt to draw the infield in but not actually hit the ball, and then swing and play for a line drive over the infield.
But I didn't realize he was that good on first pitches, so I agree, you're dead on that the team shouldn't have given away the swing. Playing to their player's strengths has always been the winning philosophy in my mind and having Merrill bunt in that situation - especially with his production on first pitch - runs counter to that.
I agree it was the wrong decision to bunt here, but I don’t think we can assume it was Shildt’s mistake. I think there’s a fair chance it was Merrill who decided to bunt. Shildt gives his players a fair amount of latitude in bunting on their own.
"Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis have played GOLD glove caliber defense" - missed a word. Great breakdown of the team going into the postseason, really feels like the most complete team that Preller has put together. Can't wait to watch for these ABs where they flip the switch
Suarez confuses me. I think some changing of pitches makes obvious sense, but I do remember an earlier game in the season, when he was mowing guys down, that the telecast said he had thrown like 40 4-seam pitches in a row, obviously spread over at least two appearances. Watching him, I noticed all he would do is throw 4 seamer, typically in the upper part of the zone. Batters seemed to swing through or create weak fly outs.
I don't think the league suddenly figured this out, I fear these pitches have become easier to hit and/or foul off. Velocity seems the same, but perhaps movement or something.
I tried to dig into this on StatCast without much insight but hope a little rest will help.
Thanks "Archi"! The "idea" that the swiss-army knife of the late 1990s Padres is helping expand my vocabulary with words like monocausal makes me happy. I can't wait to see what "Tyler Wade" has to say 26 years from now. Thanks!
Oh my god. The Padres led the majors in clutch the season after they were so dismal in this category. I can't tell you how many of the toxic positivity types on Twitter and The Athletic comments in 2023 shouted me down that "there's no such thing as clutch hitting!" I bet you and this year's Padres have convinced those fans that, hey, maybe clutch hitting does come into play over the course of a baseball season.
I think whenever we look at bunt attempts, we should further differentiate by count. For example, Merrill has a .534/.490 wOBA/xwOBA on 0-0 counts. I don't want to give away that swing in any situation. If the first pitch is not to his liking, but a ball, continue to swing away. But if he falls behind 0-1 (a count through which his wRC+ is only 100), I could at least understand the strategy.
I don't know if the thinking was that Merrill's bunt would catch LA off guard and give him to the best chance to get off base, not necessarily treat it as a sacrifice. At the time, I would have much preferred he showed bunt to draw the infield in but not actually hit the ball, and then swing and play for a line drive over the infield.
But I didn't realize he was that good on first pitches, so I agree, you're dead on that the team shouldn't have given away the swing. Playing to their player's strengths has always been the winning philosophy in my mind and having Merrill bunt in that situation - especially with his production on first pitch - runs counter to that.
Could not agree more
I agree it was the wrong decision to bunt here, but I don’t think we can assume it was Shildt’s mistake. I think there’s a fair chance it was Merrill who decided to bunt. Shildt gives his players a fair amount of latitude in bunting on their own.
"Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis have played GOLD glove caliber defense" - missed a word. Great breakdown of the team going into the postseason, really feels like the most complete team that Preller has put together. Can't wait to watch for these ABs where they flip the switch
Suarez confuses me. I think some changing of pitches makes obvious sense, but I do remember an earlier game in the season, when he was mowing guys down, that the telecast said he had thrown like 40 4-seam pitches in a row, obviously spread over at least two appearances. Watching him, I noticed all he would do is throw 4 seamer, typically in the upper part of the zone. Batters seemed to swing through or create weak fly outs.
I don't think the league suddenly figured this out, I fear these pitches have become easier to hit and/or foul off. Velocity seems the same, but perhaps movement or something.
I tried to dig into this on StatCast without much insight but hope a little rest will help.
Thanks "Archi"! The "idea" that the swiss-army knife of the late 1990s Padres is helping expand my vocabulary with words like monocausal makes me happy. I can't wait to see what "Tyler Wade" has to say 26 years from now. Thanks!
Oh my god. The Padres led the majors in clutch the season after they were so dismal in this category. I can't tell you how many of the toxic positivity types on Twitter and The Athletic comments in 2023 shouted me down that "there's no such thing as clutch hitting!" I bet you and this year's Padres have convinced those fans that, hey, maybe clutch hitting does come into play over the course of a baseball season.