Had this discussion a lot with a friend when Soto was here. A guy like Soto should be less selective, especially 3-2,since he can do real damage on balls out of the zone. He’s going to hit for doubles and home runs on some of those. Game context matters of course but the general proposition applies.
Soto is such a great player. I do really think the discourse about gets unfair at times, but it's not unfair to point out that this exact part of his game could be improved.
The highest leverage at bat of the season in 2023 was Trent Grisham on July 26th. He struck out while down by one run with the bases loaded and two outs. But two hitters before he was up David Bednar gave Soto a straight pitch around with the bases loaded. But Bednar missed with location on the second pitch of the at bat in the shadow up and in. This is Soto's weakest hitting zone, but he's still incredibly productive when swinging in this zone compared to an average hitter swinging on a pitch right down the middle, and certainly a lot better than Taylor Kolwey or Trent Grisham (that year's version). Yet he just watched it. Soto is so good that you just take that part of his game in exchange for all the other upside. But it's true, and fair to point out, that in that aspect he could be better.
"If you’re following the math here you understand that taking any of these pitches is going to carry at least a .500 on base percentage (50% chance it’s strike three, 50% chance it’s ball four2)"
Not to quibble, but that's a .500 on base PROBABILITY. It's going to create either a 0 of 100 on base percentage.
This is excellent analysis. I've tried to make essentially the same point at my Positive Padre Facebook group and am met with inexplicable resistance. A change in approach in these situations could elevate Arraez from a leagu-average regular to a very good one.
Great insight here! Feel like with his abandonment of plate discipline (although there’s the argument of “did he ever have it?” ) Arraez should move down in the order. If his lack of selectivity plays better with runners on base, perhaps the 4 or 5 spot in the lineup would be better for him? Tough to see him winning a batting title this year if he keeps selling out to swing at EVERYTHING.
I’d be interested in Merrill at 2, Arraez at 4, and Crone at 9 to increase the odds Tatis has a runner on base when he comes up.
I’m realize that moves the near automatic outs playing left field and catcher up in the order but feel that Tatis would benefit so much from having Crone getting on base…or anyone really, particularly with some speed.
I’m a strong believer that the worst hitter in a lineup should be 8th or even 7th. Especially if there’s a chance to PH for them late in a game with someone who has a better matchup.
And getting Merrill a few more ABs will generally be a good thing, recent issues aside.
Very nice. Having a low K rate has some benefits (like runner on 3B and fewer than two outs) but the real metric he should focused on is OBP, given how little power he has.
The Padres' hitters have been frustrating to watch over the last week (as though they spent all their runs in the 21-0 game). I have not studied every PA but feel like Manny is trying to pull balls that he normally takes the other way, so easy GB to left side vs line drive opposite field. Maybe because, despite is great offensive numbers, he has hit very few HR and is trying to pull to get some. And Merrill has seemingly lost all plate discipline since returning.
More tellingly is that is O-Swing for that period is 47.7%. Not good. Presumably some adjustment coming back and perhaps some pressing as the team collectively struggles?
Had this discussion a lot with a friend when Soto was here. A guy like Soto should be less selective, especially 3-2,since he can do real damage on balls out of the zone. He’s going to hit for doubles and home runs on some of those. Game context matters of course but the general proposition applies.
Soto is such a great player. I do really think the discourse about gets unfair at times, but it's not unfair to point out that this exact part of his game could be improved.
The highest leverage at bat of the season in 2023 was Trent Grisham on July 26th. He struck out while down by one run with the bases loaded and two outs. But two hitters before he was up David Bednar gave Soto a straight pitch around with the bases loaded. But Bednar missed with location on the second pitch of the at bat in the shadow up and in. This is Soto's weakest hitting zone, but he's still incredibly productive when swinging in this zone compared to an average hitter swinging on a pitch right down the middle, and certainly a lot better than Taylor Kolwey or Trent Grisham (that year's version). Yet he just watched it. Soto is so good that you just take that part of his game in exchange for all the other upside. But it's true, and fair to point out, that in that aspect he could be better.
Link to the gameday AB summary: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/717246/play/66
Sheesh, I remember that and saying “Soto has to win it” to my son. Such a clear bases loaded, unintentional, intentional walk.
I remember consoling myself saying “at least Trent swung at strike three instead of watching a middle middle fastball.”
As for Soto, he’s a great hitter. Fielder? Yuck. Teammate? Not sure but “yuck” or “double yuck” is definitely within the realm of possibility.
"If you’re following the math here you understand that taking any of these pitches is going to carry at least a .500 on base percentage (50% chance it’s strike three, 50% chance it’s ball four2)"
Not to quibble, but that's a .500 on base PROBABILITY. It's going to create either a 0 of 100 on base percentage.
This is excellent analysis. I've tried to make essentially the same point at my Positive Padre Facebook group and am met with inexplicable resistance. A change in approach in these situations could elevate Arraez from a leagu-average regular to a very good one.
Great insight here! Feel like with his abandonment of plate discipline (although there’s the argument of “did he ever have it?” ) Arraez should move down in the order. If his lack of selectivity plays better with runners on base, perhaps the 4 or 5 spot in the lineup would be better for him? Tough to see him winning a batting title this year if he keeps selling out to swing at EVERYTHING.
I’d be interested in Merrill at 2, Arraez at 4, and Crone at 9 to increase the odds Tatis has a runner on base when he comes up.
I’m realize that moves the near automatic outs playing left field and catcher up in the order but feel that Tatis would benefit so much from having Crone getting on base…or anyone really, particularly with some speed.
I’m a strong believer that the worst hitter in a lineup should be 8th or even 7th. Especially if there’s a chance to PH for them late in a game with someone who has a better matchup.
And getting Merrill a few more ABs will generally be a good thing, recent issues aside.
Very nice. Having a low K rate has some benefits (like runner on 3B and fewer than two outs) but the real metric he should focused on is OBP, given how little power he has.
The Padres' hitters have been frustrating to watch over the last week (as though they spent all their runs in the 21-0 game). I have not studied every PA but feel like Manny is trying to pull balls that he normally takes the other way, so easy GB to left side vs line drive opposite field. Maybe because, despite is great offensive numbers, he has hit very few HR and is trying to pull to get some. And Merrill has seemingly lost all plate discipline since returning.
Over the last six games Merrill's slash line is .087/.125/.087 with a 37% K rate
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackson-merrill/29490/game-log?position=OF&gds=2025-05-13&gde=2025-05-20&season=&type=0
More tellingly is that is O-Swing for that period is 47.7%. Not good. Presumably some adjustment coming back and perhaps some pressing as the team collectively struggles?
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackson-merrill/29490/game-log?position=OF&gds=2025-05-13&gde=2025-05-20&season=&type=16