Game Changing

An All-Timer

There were tough moments during two close losses in Houston on Friday and Saturday, but none tougher than the first inning of the series finale on Easter Sunday. After Fernando Tatis Jr. reached via walk, Luis Arraez dropped a bunt that forced a close play at first. First baseman Christian Walker had to field the play and make a hurried throw to second baseman Mauricio Dubon covering first. Dubon fielded the throw but in doing so stepped right into the path of Arraez running full speed to try to beat the play to first. What followed was an awful collision. This video is not for the faint of heart:

What followed was 11 minutes of dread as medical staff placed a cervical collar and carted Arraez off the field to be transported to Houston Methodist Hospital for additional testing. At the time it was very hard to tell if Arraez was going to be ok. Baseball doesn’t see these moments as often as other sports, but they’re no less chilling in the sports where they are seen more frequently. When you aren’t sure if the player is going to be ok the game suddenly seems trivial.

Thankfully there was good news to come later in the evening:

A statement from the Arraez camp suggested he’ll be back with the team as early as Monday.

The good news came much later in the evening, which meant for Arraez’ teammates the veil of uncertainty hung heavy over the game as they had to return to play. That’s something that separates the professional game. Amateur sporting events can be postponed or cancelled if an horrific injury has occured. But this was Sunday night baseball on ESPN so play would resume.

Manny Machado was first up after Arraez’ injury. Machado has led by example when the team faced intensely emotional events on field before, most notably during last year’s contentious series against the dyspeptic Nationals. And he would do so again Sunday night in a grinding 12 pitch at bat in which he fouled off six pitches, including two scary moments in which he painfully fouled back to back curve balls off of his front foot and needed attention from the trainer. But Machado was completely poised and returned to the batter’s box, ultimately drawing a walk after Framber Valdez once again tried to come inside with the curveball, but left it too far inside. Here’s the entire at bat:

That’s about as public a display of focus and grit as you could ask for, tone setting stuff for a team that had just witnessed such a grim accident befall their teammate.

Tatis was just as locked in. On the next play Xander Bogaerts would send a ground ball up the middle that Mauricio Dubon would field, and appeared to have enough time to complete an inning ending double play:

It’s hard to know why, but Dubon rushed an off-balance throw and bounced it. It’s possible he was trying extra hard to avoid a second collision. Or it may have just been a garden variety misplay. But it allowed Tatis to take an extra base. And it’s clear this was Tatis’ decision. This angle shows Tatis watching the play develop:

Tatis saw a drop in his measured sprint speed during his injury riddled 2024 campaign, down to the 77th percentile of the league. But he’s been healthy in 2025 and his sprint speed is back near the league leaders:

Tatis is returning to supreme athletic form and combining that with impeccable situational awareness. This play wasn’t just made with speed. It was baseball IQ. Instinctively acting when an opportunity to make an atypical play arose.

Tatis has made plays in his career that few would even have attempted. He famously scored on pop-fly to an infielder, and pulled off whatever this was:

But it’s possible that on Sunday we saw a new element to his game. With the score still 1-0 Tatis would lead off the top of the third. He would take a healthy swing at the first pitch from Framber Valdez, a terrific changeup that dove under Tatis’ bat. After the whiff Tatis made some sort of gesture:

It almost looked like he was signalling the fielders to back up. There were no runners on base. It’s not clear what he was communicating. Maybe it was nothing. But on the very next pitch he did this:

Tatis chopped it up the first base line for a standup triple. Some analysis is needed here. Swings that look like that are usually defensive, a hitter trying to stay alive with 2 strikes. But the count was 0-1. There was no reason for a defensive swing. But offensive swings don’t look like that. Or do they? This is what Tatis saw in front of him as he slapped at that second pitch:

That is an absolutely massive amount of unguarded real estate down the right field line. So was Tatis badly crossed up on the pitch and goofed his way into a triple on a jam shot? Or was there intent behind this swing:

Is this dumb luck? Or a game changing play?

Statcast didn’t record a bat speed because it categorized this as an uncompetitive swing. And maybe that’s what it was.

Or maybe Tatis is built different.

Baseball is strongly governed by convention. Even when defenses were lining up like this, hitters refused to try to aim hits into the gaps:

It’s commonly believed that major league pitching is too good to allow hitters to ‘aim’ hits and be successful, at least not with enough consistency to make it a good idea to try. Except for one hitter who has spoken about trying to read the field before every at bat, like a quarterback reading a defense: Luis Arraez. Does it seem so crazy that Tatis might’ve tried to emulate his fallen teammate?

Gavin Sheets had started the night on the bench with the lefty Valdez on the mound, but had been forced into action with Arraez’ injury. Sheets has been pigeonholed as a platoon specialist due to his struggles against lefties in the decaying White Sox organization. But it’s worth considering whether a player with his pedigree, still in his athletic prime, might offer something more:

Sheets ended up taking four at bats against lefties on Sunday, and despite going one for four, his at bats were very high quality:

The Padres would take the lead 2-0 but Houston would tie the game in the bottom of the 5th. The Astros would threaten to take the lead in the bottom of the 6th with a runner on first and what looked to be yet another uncanny bloop hit:

The throw does not get the runner, but it’s on target and on time despite Tatis throwing it while sliding on his backside. Ridiculous.

The BABIP luck was uncanny all weekend, but Tatis stopped the madness with that play. There was little he could do about the BABIP luck befalling his teammates however. The Padres had struck several balls extremely well only to make outs, and couldn’t keep a rally going as a result:

Tatis came up for the fourth time in the top of the 7th with the score still tied 2-2, the bases empty, and two outs. Perhaps his final at bat of the game, with the Padres running out of chances to avoid the sweep. Mike Shildt likes to say winners find solutions, and there’s one solution for bad BABIP luck that never fails: Hit it so far it doesn’t land in play.

Tatis’ bat speed was 80.7 MPH. He was not aiming for gaps in the defense. He was not taking a contact first approach. He was up there with intent. The home run put the Padres up 3-2. Tatis had scored all three of the Padres runs.

With a one run lead the team called in the fire brigade to close things out. Jason Adam was electric. The only baserunner he allowed was on a strikeout to Jeremy Pena when the ball bounced away from Martin Maldonado. Adam closed out the inning with a devastating sweeper that froze Victor Caratini:

Robert Suarez was called on for the 9th. He battled in two very entertaining at bats against Jake Meyers and Cam Smith throwing as many changeups (seven) as fastballs. The final pitch to Meyers was paint:

Courtesy: @PitchingNinja

With two outs in the 9th the final Astros batter was to be Mauricio Dubon, whose clumsy play in the first inning had cast a shadow on the game. But the Astros didn’t let him face Suarez, opting to pinch hit with Yanier Diaz.

It’s been said that Suarez’ fastball is good, but not so good he can just throw it every pitch and expect to be successful. We saw plenty of examples of that at the end of last season. But context is everything, and it’s important to note that on Sunday, Suarez didn’t have a good fastball. On Sunday his fastball was great:

The final pitch of the game was 101.5 MPH with 20 inches of induced vertical break and hit the center of the target Maldonado had set. That’s a perfect pitch.

Game Changing

Sunday’s game was just another game until it wasn’t. When Arraez was injured everything changed. Suddenly it was an enormous test of poise, concentration, and adaptation. Dylan Cease was tremendous. Gavin Sheets made sure the lineup didn’t miss a beat. Machado turned in one of the finest at bats he’s had this season. Tatis was a force of nature in his best game as a professional. The best bullpen in baseball locked down the victory. The game ended with a perfect pitch. There was a lot of bad luck encountered as the game went on. But it was met with grit, effort, and superstar players putting their thumb on the scale. Changing the game. Every season has special games. This was an all-timer.