Great read as always. Good discussion of game 1 vs the Guardians.
I look at it a bit differently. By bringing in Kolek, they didn’t necessarily give up. They decreased the odds of winning to be sure but Kolek had a distribution of probable outcomes, some percentage of those was allowing zero runs. He could have given up one run, two runs, etc. So, him entering probably increased the Guardians win expectancy relative to Estrada et al, some but how much, I don’t know. Call it 3 points? Maybe 5? So the Padres win expectancy was 7% or maybe 5% when you choose Kolek over Estrada?
I think the other calculus was trying to keep the deficit under 3 runs in order to force the Guardians to use Clase to limit his ability to pitch in games 2 or 3.
So, if the goal entering the bottom of the 8th was to keep the score 3-0 or less, Kolek probably had a pretty good chance of accomplishing that and, had he executed, increased the Padre win probability in games 2 and 3 (because doing so would preserve Padre trio and force the Guardians use Clase).
So, it’s really all about the context and what the goal is at the time the decision is made.
If the context is a game 7 or 162 where you HAVE to win, the goal is different and you HAVE to use your best bullets.
Thats why I actually think a good strategy for a game 7 type of situation is to use your closer as a starter and back end bullpen guys first. (All else being equal.) You don’t want to go down without using your best guys to maximize the chances of winning.
Your Kolek analysis is spot on. As for opening a game 7 with your best bullpen guys I can't say I've ever considered that strategy in depth. At first glance I would worry that early in the game your simply don't know how many runs you need to hold the opponent to to win, and that could affect decisions about how much length to ask for from your best guys. I also believe that comfortability in a role can affect a player's effectiveness, and inverting the bullpen roles might mean a middle reliever being asked to close out a game seven, and that seems to be just asking for chaos. But that's an unquantifiable concern. Presuming the role inversion didn't have any knock on effects starting the game with your best arms definitely ensures you get your best guys in the game. Have you ever hear of a team doing that?
No team has ever tried that as far as I know. I saw a little league team do it because their best pitcher had a limited number of pitches he could pitch in a playoff game so he faced the top of the order of our team. I remember announcers saying the Dodgers didn’t get to use Jansen when they lost game 7 to the Astros. They may have talked about it hypothetically.
The Padres kinda sorta but not really did it in that bullpen game vs the Cardinals. One pitcher an inning.
I get the issues of upsetting routines, etc. It’s an important consideration.
Here’s the scenario I envision against the Dodgers or Phillies.
Scott in the first inning vs the Schwarber/ Harper or Ohtani / Freeman duos. Someone else (starter) gets through the rest of the lineup. Then Morejon the second time for the duo. Then someone else through the rest of the lineup. Hopefully, that’s four innings in and you’ve built a lead. You still have Suarez, Estrada, Adam, Matsui.
Basically, playing matchups with the most dangerous guys to minimize the chances of them doing damage early in the game while still preserving a couple high leverage options in case you need it.
Obviously better if you have a stud starter that you think can navigate 5+. But if you don’t, I’d rather do this than start Clevinger or Manea.
Hey, awesome newsletter. Glad I found this from your post on padres Reddit. Thanks for all the attention to detail and sharing it in such a readable, eloquent, articulate form. Keep it up
Was this a reference to Soto's subpar season in San Diego?
....Baseballs travel further in humid and warm conditions. If you’ve ever lived in Boston, or New York, or DC you know that the entire summer tends to be hot and humid. It raises the question of whether West Coast teams should assume they’ll get the same long ball production from sluggers imported from teams in the East Coast hot houses…
Not to Soto specifically but it's something that would apply to any slugger coming from that climate to a cooler more arid climate, and I honestly have no idea if that's a point of emphasis for teams at the major league level. I assume it is, but I don't recall it being discussed publicly. Yepez hitting a ball that far with a 97 MPH exit velocity made me wonder about it
Great read as always. Good discussion of game 1 vs the Guardians.
I look at it a bit differently. By bringing in Kolek, they didn’t necessarily give up. They decreased the odds of winning to be sure but Kolek had a distribution of probable outcomes, some percentage of those was allowing zero runs. He could have given up one run, two runs, etc. So, him entering probably increased the Guardians win expectancy relative to Estrada et al, some but how much, I don’t know. Call it 3 points? Maybe 5? So the Padres win expectancy was 7% or maybe 5% when you choose Kolek over Estrada?
I think the other calculus was trying to keep the deficit under 3 runs in order to force the Guardians to use Clase to limit his ability to pitch in games 2 or 3.
So, if the goal entering the bottom of the 8th was to keep the score 3-0 or less, Kolek probably had a pretty good chance of accomplishing that and, had he executed, increased the Padre win probability in games 2 and 3 (because doing so would preserve Padre trio and force the Guardians use Clase).
So, it’s really all about the context and what the goal is at the time the decision is made.
If the context is a game 7 or 162 where you HAVE to win, the goal is different and you HAVE to use your best bullets.
Thats why I actually think a good strategy for a game 7 type of situation is to use your closer as a starter and back end bullpen guys first. (All else being equal.) You don’t want to go down without using your best guys to maximize the chances of winning.
Interested to hear your thoughts.
Your Kolek analysis is spot on. As for opening a game 7 with your best bullpen guys I can't say I've ever considered that strategy in depth. At first glance I would worry that early in the game your simply don't know how many runs you need to hold the opponent to to win, and that could affect decisions about how much length to ask for from your best guys. I also believe that comfortability in a role can affect a player's effectiveness, and inverting the bullpen roles might mean a middle reliever being asked to close out a game seven, and that seems to be just asking for chaos. But that's an unquantifiable concern. Presuming the role inversion didn't have any knock on effects starting the game with your best arms definitely ensures you get your best guys in the game. Have you ever hear of a team doing that?
No team has ever tried that as far as I know. I saw a little league team do it because their best pitcher had a limited number of pitches he could pitch in a playoff game so he faced the top of the order of our team. I remember announcers saying the Dodgers didn’t get to use Jansen when they lost game 7 to the Astros. They may have talked about it hypothetically.
The Padres kinda sorta but not really did it in that bullpen game vs the Cardinals. One pitcher an inning.
I get the issues of upsetting routines, etc. It’s an important consideration.
Here’s the scenario I envision against the Dodgers or Phillies.
Scott in the first inning vs the Schwarber/ Harper or Ohtani / Freeman duos. Someone else (starter) gets through the rest of the lineup. Then Morejon the second time for the duo. Then someone else through the rest of the lineup. Hopefully, that’s four innings in and you’ve built a lead. You still have Suarez, Estrada, Adam, Matsui.
Basically, playing matchups with the most dangerous guys to minimize the chances of them doing damage early in the game while still preserving a couple high leverage options in case you need it.
Obviously better if you have a stud starter that you think can navigate 5+. But if you don’t, I’d rather do this than start Clevinger or Manea.
Super innovative. Would be hell for the top of the order. And you’d need a super deep bullpen to even attempt it…
I mean, who has a really deep bullpen with a starter or two with bullpen experience? Can you think of any teams? 😉
Hey, awesome newsletter. Glad I found this from your post on padres Reddit. Thanks for all the attention to detail and sharing it in such a readable, eloquent, articulate form. Keep it up
Was this a reference to Soto's subpar season in San Diego?
....Baseballs travel further in humid and warm conditions. If you’ve ever lived in Boston, or New York, or DC you know that the entire summer tends to be hot and humid. It raises the question of whether West Coast teams should assume they’ll get the same long ball production from sluggers imported from teams in the East Coast hot houses…
Not to Soto specifically but it's something that would apply to any slugger coming from that climate to a cooler more arid climate, and I honestly have no idea if that's a point of emphasis for teams at the major league level. I assume it is, but I don't recall it being discussed publicly. Yepez hitting a ball that far with a 97 MPH exit velocity made me wonder about it