Highlights and Lowlights

Strengths and Weaknesses Coming Into Focus

The Padres took two of three games against the Angels at home in their first series back from a long road trip. You could argue that they were a couple of bad breaks from sweeping. But it’s also true they were a couple of lucky breaks away from losing the series.

Highlights and Lowlights

There were some real highlights, like Fernando Tatis Jr breaking out of a launch angle slump:

Tatis hit two no-doubter home runs, including a low launch angle laser beam in game 1:

But his game 2 walk-off home run was truly something special. With the game tied 4-4 and Elias Diaz on first in the bottom of the 9th, Kenley Jansen faced Tatis for the second time in two nights. Jansen loves to wiggle around on the mound before each pitch to mess with hitters’ timing. Sometimes he goes straight from a wiggle to the plate, other times he wiggles around and then goes still for a few seconds before delivering the ball:

Tatis got a good look at Jansen the night before in a six-pitch at-bat to end game 1. Tatis had almost squared him up, hitting a 103.6 MPH fly ball with just too steep a launch angle to leave the yard. And for the first four pitches of the faceoff in game 2 Tatis seemed to be timing up Jansen pretty well. Here are the still frames of the moment Tatis planted his foot as the first four pitches were delivered:

He was right on time on these pitches, planting his foot to drive as the ball was coming to the plate. But on the fifth pitch of the at bat something (maybe the pre-pitch wiggle routine) threw off Tatis’ timing, and he planted way too early:

Here’s the still frame, Tatis is into the toe-tap plant well before the ball even leaves Jansen’s hand:

This is usually death for a hitter, it’s just too difficult to re-load and get back into position to drive a ball. For a normal human:

This is only possible when supreme quick twitch athleticism meets preternatural hitting instincts. Here are all the angles:

On the other side of the ball Jackson Merrill provided some special defensive highlights in game 1:

His catch in the top of the 7th appeared to be a game saver when the Angels were rallying down 3-2 with runners on first and third:

For awhile it looked like game 1 was going to be remembered as the Jackson Merrill game. But unfortunately there were some lowlights for the team as well.

Release Point

Game 1 ended with a bullpen meltdown after the Padres took a 5-3 lead into the 9th. This time it was Robert Suarez, who seemed to lose his release point after striking out Matthew Lugo to start the inning. Suarez threw six of seven pitches to Lugo in the zone. He would pitch 19 of the next 26 pitches out of the strike zone, giving up a soft single, followed by four straight walks which tied the score 5-5. It’s hard to say why Suarez lost his release point, but over-throwing complicated things once he did:

Against the final batter he faced, Yoan Moncada, he was delivering fastballs with over 2500 RPM of spin, and induced vertical break well above his season average of 18.7 inches. And he was consistently missing a few inches up out of the zone.

The eighth pitch of the at bat walked in the tying run. And it was perhaps the easiest to diagnose. Statcast had his extension at 7.1 feet on the final pitch, well above his season average of 6.8 feet. Suarez overextended on his stride and pulled the pitch to the glove side (zone 14):

It was painful to watch. Alek Jacob would relieve Suarez and struck out Jorge Soler, but gave up a short porch grand slam to Taylor Ward.

Suarez would take the mound in game 3 and was effective in a one-two-three inning. The best closers will usually blow about 1 in 10 save opportunities. Suarez has generally had very good control. It’s something to watch going forward, but for the moment it does not look like a long term issue for Suarez.

Going Hunting

There was a particular lowlight in game 2 that in our opinion overshadowed Suarez’ game 1 outing. With the Angels leading 4-2 in the 8th the Padres took advantage of some suboptimal Angels defense and rallied to tie it 4-4. With runners on first and second, Jake Cronenworth came to the plate. In a very predictable sequence of events the Angels issued him a straight pitch-around walk:

The umpire gifted the Angels a strike here, but it’s not clear they even wanted it. The hope in these situations is that the hitter will expand the zone and get himself out. If he doesn’t, the pitching team is happy to issue him a walk to get to weak hitter behind him. Walks always increase expected run scoring in the inning when analyzed through the run expectancy matrix, and so walks are thought of by some as always a bad thing for the pitching team. But walks are not always bad. Walks are weaponized by pitchers trying to avoid danger and kill rallies. Especially by hunting rally ending strikeouts. And Jason Heyward was hitting behind Cronenworth:

This was a very bad at bat. Heyward got a pitch right in the heart of the zone to start the at bat but was not ready to hit it. He chased the second pitch way up and out of the zone. He could only foul off the third pitch in the zone. And he got REK’d on a splitter that was nowhere close. All hitters have bad at bats, but what was different here was the calculating approach the Angels took. They hunted Heyward down. By loading the bases on the Cronenworth pitch-around they accepted a less favorable base/out state from an average run expectancy context, because they knew this was not an average run expectancy context. In the real world context of an overmatched hitter coming up to bat, the bases being loaded were much less of a threat than usual. When people talk about a certain hitter not having enough ‘protection’ in the lineup, this is what they’re talking about. Cronenworth got nothing but bad pitches in the waste, chase, and shadow zones. He wasn’t going to get a good pitch to hit unless the pitcher made a mistake. Pitch mix to any given hitter is affected by the hitter(s) behind him in the order, and the pitcher’s expectations about how his fortunes will unfold if he gives the batter something to hit. At the moment there is almost no production coming from the left field spot in the batting order. Look for this to be addressed during the season.

Randy Vasquez Bump Day

Game 3 was Randy Vasquez bump day, and it was Vasquez’ best start of the season. He held the Angels to one run (a 2nd inning solo home run from left fielder Taylor Ward), while striking out five batters for the second start in a row. Not coincidentally, Vasquez’s last two opponents, the Rockies and Angels, are the two most strikeout prone teams in MLB:

But there’s reason to think that it’s more than just facing free swinging teams that’s leading to Vasquez’ success. Wednesday’s start was the best Vasquez’ stuff has graded out all year. His sweeper in particular looked like a newly remastered pitch:

Graphic from TJ Stats

Vasquez was able to induce four more inches of horizontal break on his sweeper than usual:

This was the best sweeper he threw all day, and it was elite:

That’s 43 inches of drop with 21 inches of horizontal break dotted on the low outside corner. Jorge Soler is a bit of a free swinger, but that was a nearly perfect pitch. Almost impossible for a right handed batter to do serious damage with. And very likely to be called a strike if the batter doesn’t swing.

For most of the season Vasquez’ starts have looked something like this:

But Vasquez may be figuring some things out. His pitch shapes are starting to look like reliably deceptive major league offerings. And while you wouldn’t know it by looking at his season walk and strikeout rates, there’s some evidence he’s meaningfully improved his control. Take a look at the distribution of his pitches in 2024 vs 2025:

Pitches in the waste zones are uncompetitive and simply add to the count being less favorable for the pitcher. In 2025 he’s wasting fewer pitches overall. And he’s cutting down on the wasted pitches without overcompensating and missing in the heart of the plate more. But it’s what he’s done when he’s ahead in the count that implies that he’s really becoming a major league pitcher:

When he’s ahead in the count he significantly drops his rate of pitches in the heart of the zone, and throws even more to the shadow and chase zones where hitters are unlikely to make hard contact. And in 2025 he’s doing this more effectively than in 2024, and with far fewer uncompetitive waste pitches.

Randy Vasquez is still a white-knuckle ride, but there are some measurable differences in the way he’s pitching this year, both in the underlying stuff/pitch shapes, and in the control he’s exhibiting. This doesn’t mean he’s a burgeoning all-star. And the sample size is still low. But it’s possible Vasquez is going to be able to credibly fill the role of fifth starter in the rotation. And that would be a major tailwind to the Padres postseason hopes.

Arraez Is Scuffling

Luis Arraez is doing one thing well: he’s not striking out. That is about it. He is simply not squaring the ball up as well as he usually does. We’ll break this down a little more later in the week. Like all things, Arraez’ struggles are multifactorial. But something doesn’t look right:

That’s quite a wince. And doesn’t look like just a reaction to missing the pitch. It looked like pain.

It may have something to do with this collision from game 1:

The collision was with his left hand, and thus with his surgically repaired left thumb. It’s hard to tell from the video above whether he was wincing from pain due to the right or left hand. But whether or not he aggravated something this series, he’s been struggling to square it up for awhile. And he continues to occupy what is arguably the most important spot in the lineup, batting second. It should be a priority to determine if Arraez is likely to start peppering line drives again soon. If he’s physically limited at this time, it would be rational to drop him in the order until he’s right.

The Path Forward

The strength of schedule going forward continues to be among the harder schedules in the league, in part due to having played no divisional games against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, and only two games against the Giants. The Padres welcome their American League mirror image Friday as they start a series against the Mariners. The Padres will start erstwhile Mariner Stephen Kolek, one of the few remaining unknowns on the roster. His first two starts couldn’t have been much better. But the competition will be a lot stiffer Friday against a team with post-season ambitions of their own. The Padres’ strengths and weaknesses are coming in to very clear focus. The strengths match up well with any roster in the league. But with a quarter of the season behind us, you can be sure that the rest of the league knows where the weak points are too.