Learning To Win

LFGSDFC

There’s a subtle force that seems to find its way into San Diego sports. A diminishing effect that limits even the most talented rosters from achieving the heights they aspire to. An invisible ceiling. We can all sort of feel it, though it’s hard to put into words. But you know it when you see it. This is best illustrated with the most recent example.

San Diego FC started its existence with a historic 2-0 win over reigning champion, and most decorated team in MLS history, the Los Angeles Galaxy. This is an impressive feat, no doubt, and should be celebrated. But that doesn’t mean every aspect of play should be exalted. Indeed, if the quest is to one day unseat the Galaxy as MLS champions, San Diego FC would be wise to examine the closing minutes of their triumph.

Ninety seconds into second half stoppage time, with SDFC leading 1-0, the Galaxy threw all but a lone defender to SDFC’s side of the pitch for corner kick in a desperate attempt to grab a last-minute equalizer (and save their blushes in front of their home crowd). But SDFC was able to force a turnover following some panicky play from the Galaxy, and the ball found its way to SDFC forward Tomás Ángel on a breakaway. Ángel instinctively charged towards the lone LA defender, knowing if he could beat him, he’d be in a one-on-one against an isolated goalkeeper. However, Ángel could not beat the defender, who blunted the breakaway around 30 yards from the LA goal. And this is where a strategic blunder occurred. Ángel was far out in front of his own teammates, and more importantly, his team did not need another goal to win. Having failed to beat the last defender, the objectively correct decision was to slow the attack and take the ball into the free real estate in the corner on the Galaxy’s side of the pitch, and wait for teammates to catch up in order to facilitate a clock burning series of keep away passes. Instead this was Ángel’s decision:

Now, this isn’t the Padres. But this is Padresing (née Chargering). Instead of seizing the opportunity to burn another minute off the clock, Ángel gifted possession back to an increasingly determined LA Galaxy for one more chance to steal joy from San Diego.

Of course, the play above had no bearing on the ultimate outcome of the match, and it might go unnoticed because the failure here is hard to quantify. It shows up in the box score only as a shot taken, a nominally good event for SDFC. But while the failure may be hard to quantify, it is even harder to miss. Ángel’s decision to take a hero ball shot when what the team needed most was to maintain possession shaved some win probability from SDFC’s inaugural effort.

Moments later, Ángel atoned with a perfectly timed run to reach an immaculately composed through ball. He then sent a measured pass between defenders, finding a sprinting Anders Dreyer whose one-touch effort crashed off the underside of the crossbar and into the net for a stylish finishing blow to the title holders:

Ángel had a very good game in the aggregate. But it’s fair to wonder how Sir Alex Ferguson, the legendary manager of Manchester United, might have reacted after the win. There can be no doubt Ángel would hear from Ferguson about his decision. But it’s likely that even before being called into the principal’s office after the game, Ángel would have heard it from the on field leaders, his teammates, immediately after the blunder occurred. Such was the culture of Manchester United during Ferguson’s venerated era. Winning was not enough, and accountability was everything. Learning how to win was an omnipresent overture irrespective of outcome.

This is not meant to be dour. Sunday’s victory was a wonderful moment in San Diego sports history. But while SDFC achieved a glorious win, the match showed that they have lessons to learn about how to win. Something that all previous major league teams in San Diego can say as well.

Across sports, there are variables that the teams cannot control in-game: the skill of the player, the luck of the bouncing ball, the beneficence or malfeasance of referees/umpires. When those factors influence the outcome, that’s just soccer, or baseball, or football etc. But there are other variables that include agency. A player can make a conscious decision that can influence the outcome of the game. And that is ever and always where a team’s culture needs to be focused. Especially when a team cannot simply compete by hoarding mountains of talent. And never more so than when a team is trying to forge an identity. Situational awareness, in theory, can be had free of financial cost, paid for instead by attention invested by staff and team culture setters. But this requires looking beyond the box score and identifying those invisible moments in the game where the player had a chance to choose a strategy that would have provided incremental win probability.

SDFC, like the Padres, are going to be in many hotly contested, down to the wire type matches in the coming weeks, months, and years. It is imperative that the Padres, SDFC, and any other team that represents the city, internalize the lesson from this match: Even when things break your way, dumb luck cannot be allowed to alibi the lack of smart play.

There is a heuristic¹ that can be used to consistently guide decisions towards a winning direction: don’t do the thing the other team wants you to do. Let this be the North Star. When you’re winning a game in stoppage time and have possession, your opponent hopes you will take a hero ball shot with a high probability of committing a turnover. When you’ve caught the game winning interception, your opponent hopes you will try to return it for an unnecessary touchdown. When the best hitter in baseball comes up to the plate representing the tying run in a crucial game, ask what does your opponent hope you will do? Don’t play into their hands. Play the other side of the chessboard.

As the Padres enter 2025 they must look for value elsewhere than the free flow of financial resources. The great news is that choosing the correct strategy every time can be had free of charge. It’s time to break the cycle.

LFGSD (FC)

1. One that has been written about for centuries.