Lock In
The 2003 Detroit Tigers were staring into the void. They were facing down the possibility of becoming the worst team in MLB history. The 1962 Mets have lived in infamy after losing an unthinkable 120 games in their inaugural season. The Tigers had lost 118. They had four games left in the season. And only one loss to give. To avoid sharing the Mets fate the Tigers would need to win three of their final four games. Their opponent for all four games was the hottest team in baseball, the first place Twins who had won 11 straight coming into the series.
In game one the Twins got out to an early 1-0 lead. The Tigers fought back in the bottom of the 7th scoring three runs. But the Twins took the lead right back in the top of the 8th scoring three runs of their own to pull ahead 4-3. Craig Monroe would put the Tigers on his back tying the game with a solo home run in the bottom of the eighth, and the game would go to extra innings tied 4-4. Still tied in the bottom of the 11th, Shane Halter hit a walk-off home run to give the Tigers a one game reprieve.
Game two would again go into extra innings, this time with the teams tied 3-3. The Twins would pull ahead by one in the top of the 10th, but in the bottom half Shane Halter would again step up for the besieged Tigers and tie the game with an RBI single. In the top of the 11th Michael Cuddyer would hit a home run for the Twins that the Tigers couldn’t answer. The Tigers would lose their 119th game. One away from wearing the Scarlett Letter. The worst of all time.
Having spent all of their extra lives the Tigers now had to win two straight against a much better opponent to stave off unending humiliation. And in game three the Twins would jump out to an early 1-0 lead. Then they scored four more in 4th inning. Then three more in the 5th. As the Tigers took the field in the bottom of the 5th they trailed 8-0, their fate all but sealed. But baseball teams are made up of human beings. And no one wants to be the worst of all time. In this moment, the Tigers were a cornered animal, lashing out desperately trying to survive. The Tigers scratched back a run in the bottom of the 5th. Then three more in the bottom of the 7th. Still trailing by four they rallied in the 8th to somehow tie the score. In the top of the 9th the Tigers brought in their closer Fernando Rodney who gave up a leadoff double to Justin Morneau. But Rodney would get the next three hitters, two by way of strikeout, and preserve the tie into the bottom of the 9th. With one out in the bottom of the 9th Alex Sanchez would reach by walk, and proceed to steal second and third giving Warren Morris an improbable chance to complete the comeback and stay the Tigers’ execution:
Source: MLB
The stadium celebrated with joy uncommon for teams in the midst of such futility. But the job wasn’t done.
In the final game of the season the Tigers would again fall behind 2-1, but erupted for seven runs in the bottom of the 6th, and would go on to win 9-4, finishing the season one loss shy of the worst of all time. In the city where Houdini breathed his last breath, the Tigers managed to pull off one last great escape.
Baseball teams are not monoliths. Their records reflect their journey. But the degree of competitive spirit can fluctuate on a night to night basis. Staring down the specter of eternal shame, the 2003 Tigers became a more competitive version of themselves and beat a superior opponent, again and again. They avoided the Scarlett letter. Kicking furiously for the surface, they were able to take that last breath.
This is who we should assume we’ll be playing this weekend. A team facing everlasting ignominy, fighting to preserve a chance to fade into obscurity. That beacon may not burn as bright as the pursuit of a World Series, but it’s enough to provoke a team’s very best shot.
It’s time to lock in.
I hate to put too much stock in such a short series. A team with a .250 winning percentage will still have a very good chance of winning one game out of three and winning two isn’t all that improbable, especially if you have a pitcher like Crochet going.
Even if you assign the superior team an 80% chance of winning each game (assuming game outcomes are independent) that means they only win two games 64% of the time and win three about 50%.
Please let this series be one of those 50% or, at the very least, 64%! Either would make our lives so much less stressful.
Very anxious about this, reminding the final Rockies series we managed to lose at home. One glimmer was the way the team dominated SF on the road in their final series. Going into that series the Giants had a 6-4 lead in the season series and expected bad things. Hopefully that focus returns and we put them at 120 by Sunday evening.