Market Analysis

Part 1

The baseball season is at its halfway point, and things start to get pretty fast from here with the July 31st trade deadline rapidly approaching. Yesterday we examined the state of the Padres roster, concluding that if the Padres are indeed going to be limited trade deadline participants, the maximally efficient use of resources might be to pursue a strong defensive left fielder who can hit left-handed pitching. And it’s an opportune time to do some analysis of the emerging trade market.

This week ESPN published an article discussing the players most likely to be traded at the deadline, while The Athletic published a breakdown of the teams most likely to be buyers or sellers. The articles are perfect complements. And it’s interesting to reconcile the two.

In ESPN’s piece Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan listed the top 50 trade deadline candidates. Among them were seven players who can play a credible outfield. We added to that list two names we’ve discussed before, Mike Tauchman and Austin Slater. Here’s the whole list organized from highest to lowest OPS:

The other article was the Athletic’s taxonomy of buyers and sellers. They identified two cohorts of teams extremely likely to be buyers at the trade deadline, and separated them by how aggressively they would pursue acquisitions:

1. Aggressive buyers: Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies

2. Typical buyers: Cubs, Astros, Padres, Giants, Mariners

It’s likely that the fiercest competition the Padres will face for trade candidates will come from the teams in these cohorts. And you can get a sense of how serious these teams might be about pursuing an outfielder by examining each team’s year-to-date outfield production:

A few things stand out here. The Padres have by far the most dismal left field production. Other teams in this group with the most glaring weak spots appear to be the Phillies and Mets in center field, the Mariners in right field, and interestingly the Dodgers in left field. But when you look a little deeper, some of these seeming weak spots start to melt away.

The Mets will see Mark Vientos return to the lineup imminently and presumably split duties at 1B and DH with Pete Alonso leaving Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Juan Soto to man the outfield full time. The Mariners have Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez in left and center, and recently saw Dominic Canzone break out offensively while holding down right field. Neither team is in desperate need of outfield help.

The Phillies were without Brandon Marsh for awhile but he’s back alongside Nick Castellanos and Max Kepler. The Phillies have been platooning the left handed Marsh with the right-handed Johan Rojas. Rojas is only 24, and has been struggling at the plate, but is by all accounts a superb fielder and baserunner. The Phillies would be interested in a right-handed center field platoon bat that was an upgrade offensively and provided a similar level of defense.

For the Dodgers, left field has been the only position to produce a sub .700 OPS on the season. This is almost entirely due to the struggles of Michael Conforto who signed a one year $17 million contract in the offseason:

The Dodgers don’t suffer struggling players for too long, either stashing them on the IL or jettisoning them entirely. Whatever remains of the $17 million owed to Conforto is a rounding error for a team with nearly unlimited resources. If Conforto is not showing signs of being able to turn it around he may very well be replaced through trade.

All three of the Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres have needs in the outfield, and could conceivably be competing for the same trade candidate. But each team’s needs are slightly different. If the Dodgers move to replace Conforto they will likely look for a star caliber player to replace him, because they can. The Phillies might want a right-handed platoon bat, similar to the Padres, but would only be interested in a player who is a clear upgrade over Rojas in the aggregate. And given Rojas’ high defensive and baserunning value, they’d need a pretty good player coming back, not a journeyman or a wild card. The Padres on the other hand can quite literally improve by acquiring even a below average left fielder if he can at least put up a professional at bat against a lefty. It would seem that among the teams most likely to be competing for outfield help, there is some natural market segmentation. If we look at the list of likely trade candidates again, now with platoon splits and defense, we can see an interesting equilibrium:

If the Padres prioritize a good defensive left fielder that can be effective against left handed pitching, there is a pretty short list. Taylor Ward is not clearly available as the Angels are still entertaining ideas of competing, and if they do sell, Ward is going to be a prized acquisition. Austin Slater fits the bill as an unspectacular floor raiser. Mike Tauchman is a lefty, but has never had significant platoon splits and would also raise the floor for the Padres. These are the options we’ve advocated before. But we’re not the GM, and the most striking thing in the chart above is that the player who originally ranked last when the list was organized by overall OPS emerges as an appealing candidate when viewed through the lens of the Padres specific needs: Luis Robert Jr.

Despite what has been a mostly lost season for Robert, he is still excelling in a few areas. He is crushing left handed pitching with an .870 OPS right in line with his career average of .879. He has been very good defensively in center field, and would be elite if moved to left. And he’s fourth in baseball with 22 stolen bases.

To be clear, this isn’t advocating for Robert to be the player the Padres pursue. This is just stating that, remarkably, even in his current state of play, it appears that Robert could be a meaningful roster upgrade. And that won’t have escaped AJ Preller’s notice, not for a player as tooled up as Robert.

The Dodgers and Phillies are very well resourced, and always go after prodigiously talented players, but they typically don’t trouble themselves with broken toys, because they can pursue more certain options. Gambling on a struggling Robert would incur both a heavy opportunity cost, and run the real risk of being a downgrade if Robert didn’t improve his offense. The Dodgers would seem more likely to pursue Jarren Duran, who is essentially a better version of Michael Conforto. And the Phillies don’t have to pay to acquire Robert when they already have a stellar defender who can put up an OPS of .584 at home.

The situation for the Padres is different than either of their most likely competitors. They face a much lower opportunity cost playing Robert, and face less downside risk because the state of the current left field milieu is so bleak. The Padres are perhaps the only team that can feel certain that even if Robert does not improve one bit from his year-to-date performance, he will still be an upgrade over the Padres in-house alternatives.

Adding to the likelihood that Preller is kicking the tires, Luis Robert’s contract situation is unique. After this season he has $20 million club options in 2026 and 2027 with a $2 million buyout. This means there is very little contract risk for the acquiring team. And for a team with limited resources, optionality is a source of value. Part of the reason the Giants were able to trade for Rafael Devers was the enormous contract risk with $255 million owed across the next 8 seasons.

Another layer to consider is what Ken Rosenthal reported after the Red Sox insisted the Giants take on Devers’ entire contract in the blockbuster trade:

The Chicago White Sox recognize they are in no position to impose the same conditions on teams that express interest in their two most expensive players, outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. In both cases, according to sources briefed on the team’s plans, the White Sox are open to including cash in trades.

The White Sox would never float such an idea if there were suitors beating down the door to make offers for Robert. Indeed, many teams will see Robert as too much of a gamble to bank on in a playoff hunt. And the confluence of the Padres having such dire need in left field, the relatively risk free contract structure, the White Sox willingness to pay Robert’s salary to cultivate a better return, and the likely absence of fierce competition for Robert’s services, means there is a unique opportunity for AJ Preller to follow the high-ceiling siren song, but for once with a pretty high floor.

To reiterate, we are not advocating for the Padres to pursue Luis Robert Jr. But we are noting that Robert is the type of player Preller is going to do due diligence on. It only takes one other excitable GM to raise the price for such an acquisition to levels AJ Preller should simply say no to. And if that happens he should walk away. But if the cost isn’t prohibitive, there’s good reason to think that Robert will improve the Padres performance, even if his own performance doesn’t improve at all. And it goes without saying that should any team find a way to improve Robert’s performance back to that which earned him MVP votes in 2023, they would have a star on their hands.