The Padre bullpen helps make situational hitting even more valuable, as you wrote. The Marlins should go for multiple runs. The Padres need one. Really valuable lesson / example when your $25mm clean up hitter does it.
According to Gameday, that at bat increased the win probability by nearly 11 points. Scoring a single run in the bottom of the first was worth about 7 points of win probability. Not definitive but illustrative of how valuable hunting a single was in the 7th last night. Question is how much the change in approach increased the expected value vs a an aggressive approach. Not sure it can be quantified to your point.
Context matters and context includes who is hitting. X has struggled all year- pounding the ball into the ground without any power. Power swings ends up as ground balls to the left side or pop ups too often. But he’s also one of the best at “handling the bat” on contact swings. I think it was clearly deliberate and a great choice. Just what they needed. A win probability optimizing approach esp since there was one out (leaving more chances to drive in a run or score multiple runs that inning), they had the 8th inning to score more vs a roughed up Pitt bullpen, and could rely on on Scott / Suarez.
If you're looking for more content ideas, it'd be interesting to get your take on Jomboy's new video where he created a new 'metric' called 'right spot rank' that tries to gauge how good your team is at shifting the infield correctly to make more outs. The Padres rank dead last in MLB, while shifting the 10th most in MLB. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P82hc0GvYzI
Fantastic Article - highlighted perfectly. Loved the swing from Bogey and I think he had pretty clear intent.
The Padre bullpen helps make situational hitting even more valuable, as you wrote. The Marlins should go for multiple runs. The Padres need one. Really valuable lesson / example when your $25mm clean up hitter does it.
According to Gameday, that at bat increased the win probability by nearly 11 points. Scoring a single run in the bottom of the first was worth about 7 points of win probability. Not definitive but illustrative of how valuable hunting a single was in the 7th last night. Question is how much the change in approach increased the expected value vs a an aggressive approach. Not sure it can be quantified to your point.
Context matters and context includes who is hitting. X has struggled all year- pounding the ball into the ground without any power. Power swings ends up as ground balls to the left side or pop ups too often. But he’s also one of the best at “handling the bat” on contact swings. I think it was clearly deliberate and a great choice. Just what they needed. A win probability optimizing approach esp since there was one out (leaving more chances to drive in a run or score multiple runs that inning), they had the 8th inning to score more vs a roughed up Pitt bullpen, and could rely on on Scott / Suarez.
If you're looking for more content ideas, it'd be interesting to get your take on Jomboy's new video where he created a new 'metric' called 'right spot rank' that tries to gauge how good your team is at shifting the infield correctly to make more outs. The Padres rank dead last in MLB, while shifting the 10th most in MLB. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P82hc0GvYzI
Took your suggestion for the article today. Seemed relevant to the Cardinals series