Great summary. Feel very comfortable that hitting, defense and bullpen will be strong to elite. We need some above expectation performances from starting pitchers but just need to be on top half of ERA and innings pitched to be in a great position.
I think that the Padres have the highest range of potential outcomes in MLB. Win 95 +/- to 75 +/-.
Part of why Vasquez outperforms expected metrics, mainly xERA is that xWoba doesn't take into account spray angle of the batted ball, and because of it center to opposite field fly balls underperform xWoba, which is 40% of Vasquez's batted balls. Then you add in Petco's park effects and the high end defense of Merrill and Tatis.
This team has 78 wins written all over it. Even if Tatis puts up a 9 fWAR season he won't be able to make-up for the terrible rota. Preller needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat and add an arm sooner rather than later.
Who is this Dylan guy? Bring back Archi!
One other variable to the season- maybe the biggest- who buys the team and what, if any impact that will have on the in-season budget.
Great summary. Feel very comfortable that hitting, defense and bullpen will be strong to elite. We need some above expectation performances from starting pitchers but just need to be on top half of ERA and innings pitched to be in a great position.
I think that the Padres have the highest range of potential outcomes in MLB. Win 95 +/- to 75 +/-.
Going to be exciting. I hope.
Part of why Vasquez outperforms expected metrics, mainly xERA is that xWoba doesn't take into account spray angle of the batted ball, and because of it center to opposite field fly balls underperform xWoba, which is 40% of Vasquez's batted balls. Then you add in Petco's park effects and the high end defense of Merrill and Tatis.
This team has 78 wins written all over it. Even if Tatis puts up a 9 fWAR season he won't be able to make-up for the terrible rota. Preller needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat and add an arm sooner rather than later.