Great analysis and gives one hope for the upcoming stretch of games.
The Padres need to go on a run in May and put lots of wins in the bank, especially now that they are reasonably healthy.
Here's my assessment:
GAMES PLAYED TO DATE:
Winning percentage of opponents played to date (thru 5/8): .496
Winning percentage of opponents played to dates, excluding games vs. Padres: .509
Padres have played 7 series vs. teams with winning percentages above .500 if you exclude the outcome of games vs. the Padres. Only 4 series played against teams under .500. Padres have played 18 games at home and 18 on the road.
Takeaway: Over the first 36 games, this indicates that the Padres have played a reasonably strong schedule so far.
GAMES TO BE PLAYED IN MAY:
Winning percentage of May upcoming opponents: .405
Winning percentage of May upcoming opponents, excluding games played vs. Padres: .421
Padres will play two series vs. teams with winning percentages above .500 if you exclude the games outcome of games vs. the Padres (total of 6 games) and 4 series vs. teams under .500 (15 games). Also, 12 games out of the 21 will be at home.
Takeaway: For the upcoming 21 games, the May schedule is notably weaker than what they've played to date.
GAMES TO BE PLAYED IN JUNE:
Winning percentage of opponents: .554 and Padres play 9 games at home and 20 games on the road. In addition, Padres play 14 games vs. NL West contenders (LAD, SFG, AzD).
Takeaway: June is a very difficult and crucial month due to quality of opponents, playing so many games on the road, the number of intra-division games, and stretches of 13 games, 13 games, and then 6 games.
June will be the ultimate test for the Padres, testing their depth and focus. Here's to good health and good fortune.
CONCLUSION:
The Padres need to win lots of games in May, I'd say going 13-8 or better. (Note: This is worse than they've done while Merrill has been injured. So, one would hope that 13-8 represents the floor during this period, assuming good health.
For June, a .500 record would be a big win, ideally, with a winning record vs. other NL West contenders.
Let's assume 14-15.
Doing that would leave them at 50-36 (winning percentage of .581), putting them on pace for 94 wins and in a good position to host a wild card series and push for 100 wins, which is likely what it would take to win the NL West. (At a minimum.)
Honestly disappointing how bad our bench and replacement level players are this year. Last year we hit on some gems, this year not so much. We really do have 0 depth.
Great analysis and gives one hope for the upcoming stretch of games.
The Padres need to go on a run in May and put lots of wins in the bank, especially now that they are reasonably healthy.
Here's my assessment:
GAMES PLAYED TO DATE:
Winning percentage of opponents played to date (thru 5/8): .496
Winning percentage of opponents played to dates, excluding games vs. Padres: .509
Padres have played 7 series vs. teams with winning percentages above .500 if you exclude the outcome of games vs. the Padres. Only 4 series played against teams under .500. Padres have played 18 games at home and 18 on the road.
Takeaway: Over the first 36 games, this indicates that the Padres have played a reasonably strong schedule so far.
GAMES TO BE PLAYED IN MAY:
Winning percentage of May upcoming opponents: .405
Winning percentage of May upcoming opponents, excluding games played vs. Padres: .421
Padres will play two series vs. teams with winning percentages above .500 if you exclude the games outcome of games vs. the Padres (total of 6 games) and 4 series vs. teams under .500 (15 games). Also, 12 games out of the 21 will be at home.
Takeaway: For the upcoming 21 games, the May schedule is notably weaker than what they've played to date.
GAMES TO BE PLAYED IN JUNE:
Winning percentage of opponents: .554 and Padres play 9 games at home and 20 games on the road. In addition, Padres play 14 games vs. NL West contenders (LAD, SFG, AzD).
Takeaway: June is a very difficult and crucial month due to quality of opponents, playing so many games on the road, the number of intra-division games, and stretches of 13 games, 13 games, and then 6 games.
June will be the ultimate test for the Padres, testing their depth and focus. Here's to good health and good fortune.
CONCLUSION:
The Padres need to win lots of games in May, I'd say going 13-8 or better. (Note: This is worse than they've done while Merrill has been injured. So, one would hope that 13-8 represents the floor during this period, assuming good health.
For June, a .500 record would be a big win, ideally, with a winning record vs. other NL West contenders.
Let's assume 14-15.
Doing that would leave them at 50-36 (winning percentage of .581), putting them on pace for 94 wins and in a good position to host a wild card series and push for 100 wins, which is likely what it would take to win the NL West. (At a minimum.)
Honestly disappointing how bad our bench and replacement level players are this year. Last year we hit on some gems, this year not so much. We really do have 0 depth.