One of the reasons Luis Arraez is such a fun and controversial player is in line with the no-power issues of the Padres. We talked about this at length on PHT last night. When you commit a major power position (1B or DH) to a player who is going to max out at 6-7 HR, that's a choice. It's a choice you need to overcome by getting above-average pop out of different positions. Cronenworth gives you that pop at 2B but Bogaerts (so far) has not. And to then compound the issue with a virtual zero in LF, now you have a power problem.
Nailed it. Big opportunity cost slotting Arraez in at a premium power position. Potentially workable with above average power at 2B (also possibly C with Diaz). Harder with the regression from Bogaerts (I think this is as much park factor related as age related decline but need to explore that). Becomes unworkable when a second premium power position is a complete zero.
For me, an underrated part of our offensive struggles has been the lack of stolen bases. In our first 17 games, we went 14-3. We had 23 stolen bases (1.35/game). Since then, we've had 28 games and gone 13-15, with only 13 stolen bases (0.46/game). It certainly seems like as a team, we are collectively not being as aggressive on the bases as we once were. And for a team built on singles, getting from 1st to 2nd is the difference between having your 2nd single of an inning being an RBI, and your 2nd single moving the runner to 3rd, and needing a 3rd single to get an RBI.
Looking a little deeper, it's primarily about 2 guys: Tatis and Manny. Through 11 games (when Tatis hurt his shoulder April 8 vs the As), Tatis and Manny both had 5 SB (0.45/game). Since then, Tatis has 3 SB in 33 games (0.09/game), and Manny has 2 SB in 34 games (0.058/game).
The only other guys on our team with more than 2SB on the whole season are Bogey (w/ 8) and Lockridge (w/ 6). Through the first 11 games, Bogey had 3 (0.27/game) and Lock had 1 in 8 games (0.125/game). Since then, Bogey has 5 in 34 games (0.147/game) and Lock has 6 in 23 games (0.26/game).
So, what are my takeaways?
1) I think we all were surprised Manny was running as much as he was, and we shouldn't expect him to put up big SB numbers anyway.
2) It would be good to have Tatis and Bogey be more aggressive (especially Tatis). Tati is the straw the stirs the drink of this offense, and since hurting his shoulder (and not diving headfirst anymore), he barely attempts at all. I personally don't think he's that much worse of a base stealer sliding into 2nd than diving headfirst, but apparently he thinks so. (And perhaps he is: he has 2 CS vs 3 SB since hurting his shoulder).
3) IMO, Lock needs to start LF every game (until we trade for a better bat there). JHey only gives us defense, and Lock gives us that and he's by far our best base stealer.
Wonder if they became very risk averse to injury after that incredible stretch where half of the starters were injured and the offensive cratering was threatening to derail the season...
100% seems like a correlation with those injuries and the rest of the offense stopping to run. Also interesting that we’re not seeing a return to running now that everyone is back.
Tough series! Great to see Reynolds pick up the team with some excellent work out of the pen. Hopefully the grit squad shows up in Toronto and doesn't Leaf their way through the series.
Reynolds remains intriguing. He's gigantic and gets good extension, which might make his fastball play up a little, and he'll occasionally throw a four-seamer with elite shape. His sweeper is still a work in progress but has a very different shape from his slider. If he can command all three with a similar delivery he'll be cooking. If the changeup develops he could be a demon. Love the upside.
Could you dive a little deeper into home run scoring vs base hit scoring? What is an effective ratio? How do the Cubs, dodgers, Yankees do here? How do the Pads compare?
The Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees get enormous amount of runs from both home runs and base hits. They are able to aggregate many of the best power hitters in the league who also can handle the bat. We should copy them if we can :)
The other big thing all those teams do beyond having the best power/contact combination is they are aggressive about moving on from players who are creating dead spots in the lineup.
One of the reasons Luis Arraez is such a fun and controversial player is in line with the no-power issues of the Padres. We talked about this at length on PHT last night. When you commit a major power position (1B or DH) to a player who is going to max out at 6-7 HR, that's a choice. It's a choice you need to overcome by getting above-average pop out of different positions. Cronenworth gives you that pop at 2B but Bogaerts (so far) has not. And to then compound the issue with a virtual zero in LF, now you have a power problem.
Nailed it. Big opportunity cost slotting Arraez in at a premium power position. Potentially workable with above average power at 2B (also possibly C with Diaz). Harder with the regression from Bogaerts (I think this is as much park factor related as age related decline but need to explore that). Becomes unworkable when a second premium power position is a complete zero.
Yeah, wondering how the Padres would reach the magic HR number of 170 put out by Raphie at the beginning of the season so far seems to be prescient.
For me, an underrated part of our offensive struggles has been the lack of stolen bases. In our first 17 games, we went 14-3. We had 23 stolen bases (1.35/game). Since then, we've had 28 games and gone 13-15, with only 13 stolen bases (0.46/game). It certainly seems like as a team, we are collectively not being as aggressive on the bases as we once were. And for a team built on singles, getting from 1st to 2nd is the difference between having your 2nd single of an inning being an RBI, and your 2nd single moving the runner to 3rd, and needing a 3rd single to get an RBI.
Looking a little deeper, it's primarily about 2 guys: Tatis and Manny. Through 11 games (when Tatis hurt his shoulder April 8 vs the As), Tatis and Manny both had 5 SB (0.45/game). Since then, Tatis has 3 SB in 33 games (0.09/game), and Manny has 2 SB in 34 games (0.058/game).
The only other guys on our team with more than 2SB on the whole season are Bogey (w/ 8) and Lockridge (w/ 6). Through the first 11 games, Bogey had 3 (0.27/game) and Lock had 1 in 8 games (0.125/game). Since then, Bogey has 5 in 34 games (0.147/game) and Lock has 6 in 23 games (0.26/game).
So, what are my takeaways?
1) I think we all were surprised Manny was running as much as he was, and we shouldn't expect him to put up big SB numbers anyway.
2) It would be good to have Tatis and Bogey be more aggressive (especially Tatis). Tati is the straw the stirs the drink of this offense, and since hurting his shoulder (and not diving headfirst anymore), he barely attempts at all. I personally don't think he's that much worse of a base stealer sliding into 2nd than diving headfirst, but apparently he thinks so. (And perhaps he is: he has 2 CS vs 3 SB since hurting his shoulder).
3) IMO, Lock needs to start LF every game (until we trade for a better bat there). JHey only gives us defense, and Lock gives us that and he's by far our best base stealer.
Wonder if they became very risk averse to injury after that incredible stretch where half of the starters were injured and the offensive cratering was threatening to derail the season...
100% seems like a correlation with those injuries and the rest of the offense stopping to run. Also interesting that we’re not seeing a return to running now that everyone is back.
great points!
Tough series! Great to see Reynolds pick up the team with some excellent work out of the pen. Hopefully the grit squad shows up in Toronto and doesn't Leaf their way through the series.
Reynolds remains intriguing. He's gigantic and gets good extension, which might make his fastball play up a little, and he'll occasionally throw a four-seamer with elite shape. His sweeper is still a work in progress but has a very different shape from his slider. If he can command all three with a similar delivery he'll be cooking. If the changeup develops he could be a demon. Love the upside.
This post is a bit dated, but seems germane to title. 5/11-5/21 (starting day after 21-0 game in Denver and including 14-0 game yesterday):
TOT: 206/263/302/566 61 wRC+ (30th)
RISP: 107/215/161/376 13 wRC+ (30th)
Could you dive a little deeper into home run scoring vs base hit scoring? What is an effective ratio? How do the Cubs, dodgers, Yankees do here? How do the Pads compare?
The Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees get enormous amount of runs from both home runs and base hits. They are able to aggregate many of the best power hitters in the league who also can handle the bat. We should copy them if we can :)
The other big thing all those teams do beyond having the best power/contact combination is they are aggressive about moving on from players who are creating dead spots in the lineup.
Excellent coverage!