It’s hard to know why it took until June 12th for the Padres to complete a series sweep. Or why they were the 30th and final team in MLB to accomplish the feat this season. They’d had five chances earlier in the season. April 17th against Milwaukee may have been their best chance when Michael King threw 7.2 innings of two hit ball giving up only one run. But alas, the Padres offense was shut down that day, the Brewers won 1-0. May 5th the Padres tried to close out a sweep against Arizona but the Diamondbacks torched Matt Waldron for 8 runs in 3 innings. This was also the outing that led Waldron to make substantive changes in his mechanics and his pitch selection that have transformed him into an electrifying starter. May 20th against Atlanta was interesting in that the Padres had already won the first three games of the series, good enough for a sweep most of the time since the majority of series are only three games, but instead they faced lefty, and Cy Young contender Chris Sale on the back end of a doubleheader. Sale shoved for seven innings on the way to a 3-0 Braves victory. May 29th the Padres attempted to sweep the Marlins with Yu Darvish on the mound, this was the last game Darvish pitched, he lasted only three innings and gave up three runs. He was placed on the IL the next day1. June 2nd the Padres had another excellent chance when they took a 3-1 lead into the ninth against the Kansas City Royals. Robert Suarez was not available for the save and instead Yuki Matsui had to face the heart of the Royals order. Matsui allowed the first three batters to reach, and only got a single out: the sac fly that scored the winning run for the Royals.
That last Royals game has particular relevance to the A’s series, and especially the final game Wednesday. There was a chain of events across the Royals series that thrust Matsui into the closer role in the final game; Stephen Kolek had been unable to hold an eight run lead in the ninth forcing Robert Suarez to come in when the game became a save situation. Mike Shildt had then elected to use Suarez the next night with a four run lead to secure the win in a non-save situation. This left Suarez unavailable in the final outing and Matsui simply wasn’t up to the task. Suarez had made a total of 24 pitches in the two outings against Kansas City that rendered him unavailable for the third game. Interestingly, going into the first game against the A’s Suarez had not pitched since that second game in Kansas city, a layoff of nine days. The game script simply hadn’t called for him. So in game one against the A’s he was given the ninth inning in a 6-1 game just to get some work in. He struck out the side on 15 pitches. In game two he was brought in to a tied game in the eighth inning with two outs after Enyel De Los Santos was tagged for a two run home run. He finished the eighth and shut down the A’s in the ninth preserving the tie and setting up a dramatic finish:
Courtesy: @MLB
Suarez got the win on Kyle Higashioka’s walk off homer run. Suarez had been able to complete his 1.1 innings on only 8 pitches. Still, this meant he’d pitched back to back games, and had thrown 23 pitches, nearly the same mark that had rendered him unavailable in Kansas City. It was reasonable to think he would not be available for the series finale.
Heavy Lifting
Suarez’ probable absence wasn’t the only reason to think it would be a heavy lift to win game three of the A’s series. Jeremiah Estrada had missed the previous game with an illness severe enough that he wasn’t even with the team that night, his effectiveness out of the bullpen was a question mark. On the other side of the ball Jurickson Profar was to miss the game after aggravating a knee injury on a swing the night before. It’s hard to overstate how good Profar has been this season. Both pundits and metrics have placed him among the best offensive players in baseball this year. In his absence a lineup already a little light on slug would see Donovan Solano move into the cleanup spot, and Jose Azocar take over for Profar in left and bat ninth. And finally the starting pitcher for the A’s was Hogan Harris who’d pitched well in a small sample size on the season, but more importantly was another lefty, something that has vexed the Padres so much we’ve belabored the point in multiple articles.
Solano made the case early that he was a more than adequate fill in for Profar’s slugging with a second inning 401 foot blast with two strikes:
Still, Harris was effective through four innings until he faced Jackson Merrill to open the fifth. Merrill has been an effective major league hitter on the whole, but coming into the game was still at a sub-.500 OPS against lefties. Which was why it was so encouraging to see this:
That was 108 MPH off the bat and went 406 feet. And the pitch location was interesting:
That ball is at the knees on the inner half of the strike zone but Merrill got inside it to drive it to dead center. This is true professional hitting. And the Padres needed it.
While the offense tried to grind out runs on a day they were yet again hampered by injury to a key player, they had things working in their favor on the other side of the ball with Michael King on the mound. King has quietly been outstanding since the start of May. His only bad start in that stretch was the third game of the farcical home series against Colorado in which nothing could go right for any of the Padres pitchers. Despite giving up six earned runs in only 5.1 innings in that doomed outing against the Rockies, his ERA since the start of May had been a stellar 2.36 and he’d allowed zero or one earned run in five of his seven outings during that stretch, truly elite performance. And he brought it against the A’s:
Video Courtesy: @TooMuchMortons_
Michael King struck out 12 across five innings. It was his third time reaching double digits on the season. He’s now averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings pitched this year, a superb mark and no fluke, that’s actually his career average. The question about King coming into the season was whether he could port the success he’d achieved as a reliever earlier in his career into the starter’s role. It sure looks like that’s what we’re seeing. King’s success comes from his marvelous pitch shapes:
For the first half of the ball’s flight to home plate that sinker is actually on a trajectory to hit Abraham Toro who ducks out of the way just as the ridiculous spin King put on the ball starts to drag it back over the plate until it dots the upper edge of the strike zone. At that point Toro’s back was turned to the plate fully in self preservation mode.
King’s stuff is great, but part of what makes him effective is his ability to disguise his pitches which is immaculate:
On the left is his release on the sinker which flies outside before breaking sharply in on right handers. On the right is the sweeper which starts down the middle before breaking sharply outside. You can see in the still frames that the release point and body mechanics from King are nearly identical. And the pitches travel on the same ‘tunnel’ towards the plate until their break kicks in. A hitter sees the exact same release from King on two pitches that initially travel on the same trajectory before breaking with movement almost opposite one another. This ability to disguise what’s coming leaves hitters guessing. Indeed, a well timed article on Fangraphs Thursday showed quantifiable evidence that similarity between the release angles of fastballs (of which the sinker is a variation) and sliders (including sweepers) is a key to inducing swings/whiffs. Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) created an overlap of the two pitches to Miguel Andujar which illustrates the profound challenge for the hitter:
The Padres have a real pitcher in Michael King. Consistency with location is what separates him from being a true ace, he has the repeatable delivery and the stuff.
What got to King on Wednesday was simply the pitch count. He came out for the sixth inning and gave up two singles on weak contact. Mike Shildt noted after the game that it was predetermined that King would only face two hitters in the sixth so as to limit the pitch count which was up to 98. Wandy Peralta came on in relief with runners on first and second and no outs. Peralta has never been a high strikeout pitcher with a career strikeouts per nine innings of 7.4, a pedestrian figure. He’s stayed in the big leagues for nine years because of his ability to induce ground balls. And that’s exactly what you’d hope to get in this situation, a ground ball with a chance to turn two. Here’s what happened:
The result was unquestionably awful. Yet you might also say he did what he was supposed to do, induce a ground ball. It found a hole due to the defensive alignment towards the hitter’s pull side. Peralta would not recover after this. He ran up a full count against Shane Langeliers before hanging a changeup that was blasted 112 MPH into left field allowing the tying run to score. The next hitter was Seth Brown who was asked to lay down a bunt. What followed was absurdity:
That was a runner scoring from second base on a sacrifice bunt. Watching from the behind the plate angle you can see exactly what happened. As the play started the Padres defense was not aligned for a sac bunt2:
As the play develops Donovan Solano first moves to field the bunt, but when it seems like Peralta may get to it he retreats to cover third to allow Peralta a chance to throw out the lead runner. As this is happening Ha-Seong Kim moves to cover second base in case a play may be made there, and it appears Jake Cronenworth moves to backup first base where a rushed throw from Peralta is the actual most likely outcome of the play:
The problem comes when Peralta can’t quite get to the ball, and with Solano covering third and Kim covering second it trickles into the vacated part of the infield. This looked like a bad little league play, though it appears more like a freak play where each player’s reaction to the play was sensible in the moment but the outcome was still unacceptable. Some would feel that this is the third baseman’s ball and that’s not an unreasonable assertion either. Boos started after the debacle, and Peralta appeared rattled. He walked Daz Cameron who appeared to once again be attempting to bunt, and Shildt had seen enough. He removed Peralta who was booed loudly as he walked off the field. He had a really bad outing, there can be no doubt about that. He also got a little unlucky.
With the Padres now trailing 3-2 and the bases loaded with no outs Shildt brought in Stephen Kolek. To many this was raising the white flag. Kolek has been largely ineffective and his implosion against the Royals was still fresh in the minds of Padres fans. When we wrote about Kolek’s ineffectiveness against the Royals we noted he’d gone away from his best pitches, the sinker and sweeper, and appeared to be trying to keep hitters off balance by throwing a wider mix of pitches (cutters, 4-seamers, and the occasional changeup) hoping the difference in pitch shapes might make up for the lower quality of the pitches in terms of raw stuff. This type of performance reeked of low confidence and experimenting rather than leaning on his best stuff to get hitters out, and it didn’t work, Kolek’s secondary offerings were crushed. We said at the time:
Preller and the Padres need to see if his best stuff plays, because if it doesn’t, the rest is moot. Outings where he barely throws his best pitches don’t help solve that mystery.
Here are Kolek’s first 10 pitches when he was brought in with the bases loaded and no outs Wednesday:
That was 10 straight sinkers. He dropped the gimmicks and just went with his best most reliable pitch again and again, and he struck out two hitters in the highest leverage moment he’s faced in the big leagues. Some of those pitches were really good, the strikeout pitch to Schuemann in particular. That’s getting back on the horse.
Major league hitters notice when a pitcher is leaning on the same pitch time and again, and unless you’re Robert Suarez, eventually you need something other than a fastball to get hitters out. Here’s how Kolek faced Abraham Toro who had undoubtedly noted his teammates had just seen 10 straight sinkers:
Kolek showed him three straight changeups to start the at bat. Toro was out in front of the second offering, and seemed to make an adjustment on the third timing up the changeup perfectly but watching it low and out of the zone. Kolek’s fourth offering was his first and only four-seam fastball up in the zone and Toro was both late and under it. That was beautiful pitch sequencing. This is baseball so Toro’s 52.4 MPH exit velo 83 degree launch angle popup to left field still nearly fell for a hit, but Jose Azocar on a full sprint made the sliding catch. It’s worth noting that’s a play that Profar may not have been able to make.
When Kolek entered the game the A’s were up by one with no outs and the bases loaded, which portends an 82.9% win probability for the A’s. When Kolek stranded all three runners preserving the one run deficit the A’s win probability dropped to 59.46%. That’s almost a quarter of a win swing in a single outing. He kept the Padres in the game. And he picked up Wandy Peralta.
Yuki Matsui was given the seventh inning. His biggest struggle this season has been to throw strikes and keep his pitches around the zone generally. On Wednesday he took a step towards correcting that throwing 11 of 17 pitches for strikes and allowing only an infield single to keep the score knotted 3-2.
Jeremiah Estrada took the mound in the eighth. It’s hard to know how he was feeling physically, having been violently ill and not with the team the night before. He walked Seth Brown to open the inning, and after striking out Daz Cameron he left a four-seam fastball middle-middle to Zack Gelof who hit a double to the left-center gap to make score 4-2. Estrada would get out of the inning without further damage.
The Padres were down to their last few outs entering the eighth and still trailing by two. With Profar out many had hoped Fernando Tatis would be able to carry the offensive load. He’d been on a 17 game hitting streak, the longest active streak in baseball. But he’d been shut out 0-3 at the plate so far. With one out he was able to work the count full. In a moment that drew special attention after the game from Mike Shildt, Tatis watched a pitch that was probably hittable sail by for ball four:
This was exactly what the Padres needed: baserunners. And down to their last few outs, taking the walk effectively ended Tatis’ chances at extending the hit streak. That pitch was close enough that if his priority had been on the streak he probably swings. But he was focused winning and stared down an ice cold take on a close pitch to draw the walk. That’s winning baseball.
Machado was up next and pitcher Lucas Erceg started him with a 99 MPH four-seamer followed by a 98 MPH sinker. After a change of pace slider Erceg struck out Machado on another 98 MPH sinker that dove down and in. With Tatis still aboard Donovan Solano came up in the spot in the order which Profar would have occupied. Solano would note after the game that he’d paid attention to Erceg’s pitch sequencing to Machado and came up ready to hit a first pitch fastball:
Solano ambushed Erceg’s middle-in four-seamer for his second home run of the day. He’d tied the game. He’d done more than fill in for Pro. He’d slugged like the ideal cleanup hitter. And it made all the difference.
With the score tied 4-4 the game moved into the ninth where to much surprise Robert Suarez came in despite appearances in the first two games. He worked a scoreless top of the ninth and gave the Padres a chance to win in the bottom half. He’s been willing to do whatever the team has asked of him. It’s remarkable. His workload needs to be monitored, but in all he threw 42 pitches across three games. Relievers typically throw most days even if they don’t get into a game. There were no real red flags in his usage.
In a moved that was decidedly not surprising the A’s brought in their own fire breathing closer Mason Miller. Miller has been one of the most effective relievers in the game. His fastball has averaged 100.9 MPH and tops out over 103. He’d struck out a gaudy 55 batters in 29.2 innings coming into Wednesday. The Padres had managed to avoid Miller in the first two games but there was no hiding any longer. Ha-Seong Kim battled in a six pitch at bat against Miller seeing both the four-seam fastball and three sliders before grounding out on a 102.1 MPH four-seamer. Jackson Merrill came up next. Special players make special plays. Jackson Merrill is a special player:
Courtesy: @TheAthletic
Merrill took a first pitch slider deep to right field for his second home run of the game. An incredible end to a special win.
As Kevin Acee noted, Merrill was not expecting to see the slider:
Queried as to whether he was expecting to see the slider from Miller yesterday, Merrill said, “Hell no. Hell no”
Merrill would say about hitting off Miller:
“You gotta get the head out and get your foot down early. And as soon as I saw spin, I kind of knew we gotta go here. He’s not gonna give another spin pitch right in the middle of the zone.”
The ability to process, react, and execute in this way is preternatural for a 21 year old facing perhaps the best reliever in the game. One of the few critiques of Merrill’s hitting has been the fact that he’s not drawing very many walks. This is true, and it’s likely that the best actualized version of Merrill as a hitter will include more walks. But it’s not like he’s up there swinging wildly:
He’s putting the ball in play consistently. His strikeout rate is one of the lower marks in the league. And he’s not up there slapping for contact, his hard-hit rate is well above league average. There’s real reason to think that the approach he’s currently taking is what’s best for his development. His path to stardom is figuring out how to turn his natural athletic gifts into production with the bat. As strange as it is to say, he’s still relatively new to professional baseball, younger than many of the prospects in the upcoming MLB draft. He has just over 1100 professional at bats, only about two full seasons worth. He’s only played 290 professional games. When he finishes the final 90 games of this season that will amount to almost 25% of his total professional experience. There is real upside to him getting in-game swing repetitions now. On Wednesday we saw him get the bat to a ball down in the zone off a lefty and elevate it over the centerfield wall. He then faced down a pitcher with the most electric3 fastball in the major leagues, and had the wherewithal to react when he saw spin and drive a ball to his pull side, getting flush contact to keep it fair and over the fence for a walk off home run. There’s a potential superstar here. The walks will come. For now, swing away.
Nothing Guaranteed
One of the hallmarks of AJ Preller’s rosters has been a top heavy approach, sometimes derided as a “stars and scrubs” model. It’s notable that the 2024 Padres have been beset by an enormous amount of injury bad luck to the top of the roster. They’re still missing Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove from the rotation. Xander Bogaerts and Profar are missing time. Luis Arraez and Manny Machado are playing through injury. And yet the season isn’t collapsing. The Padres are 37-35 at nearly the halfway point in the season. They still hold a wild card spot.
Wednesday’s win came on the back of the efforts of the Padres second line. Solano slugged in Profar’s absence on the offensive side and Azocar made a game saving play on the defensive side. Kolek sought atonement as the last man on the roster and picked up an ailing teammate with a nails performance in high leverage relying on his best stuff to get the job done. Matsui showed process improvement. Suarez continued to go above and beyond. And Jackson Merrill never seemed over his skis playing the role of superstar.
Wednesday the Padres finally completed a series sweep, and they did so in spectacular fashion. This doesn’t guarantee anything. Games like this don’t necessarily represent some sort of turning point. But they don’t have to. Surely, the most immediate task before the Padres remains surviving the regular season. The regular season is so long that teams need to be able to weather injuries, slumps, unexpected loss of skill. And that means the second line stepping up. Perhaps Wednesday wasn’t a turning point so much as a proof of concept that the roster construction finally appears to be more than a house of cards.
One To Remember
We watch baseball in the hope of seeing our team win a world series. And that remains the ultimate goal. But along the way certain games stand out. They count for only one win/loss in the standings, but special games are part of the payoff of watching the 162 game grind. And they deserve special recognition. This is one to remember.
The IL move was announced June 1st but was retroactive to May 30th, the day after his start.
This is no knock on the defense. It’s 2024. Teams rarely bunt. Bringing the corners in to counter a sac bunt gives up a much larger chance of a base hit if the batter swings away.
In Kevin Acee’s article he noted Merrill first referred to Mason Miller’s fastball as “the most electric” fastball in the major leagues before correcting himself to say second-most behind Padres closer Robert Suarez