1) pinch hitting for him had the highest expected value.
2) having him bunt was the right “risk averse” or conservative choice.
3) having him swing away was risky given his propensity to hit GB AND the fact that Logan Freaking Webb was on the mound, the master
of getting hitters to hit GBs.
Given the actual players involved, the expected values and probability of outcomes was worse than the average data tells us.
If you aren’t going to pinch hit, have him bunt. Move two runners over and you have Arraez hitting with two outs. (Or, if the bunt fails, you still have first and second with Arraez up.) And Arraez is hitting well, including that game vs Webb. So, the probable outcome there is BETTER than the averages.
The aggressive play is to pinch hit with a capable hitter. An acceptable choice regardless of the outcome, even if that hitter hits into a DP.
The most conservative play (bunt to move runners over into scoring position AND to ensure your best two out hitter who is on a heater and seeing the ball well that day gets a high leverage AB) is an acceptable choice regardless of the outcome.
Letting a very poor MLB hitter with a 60% ground ball rate (and given it’s against Logan Webb, it’s probably 65%+ plus probability in reality), is the worst possible choice regardless of the outcome.
Even bunting puts pressure on the Giants to execute, esp with McCoy’s bunting skills and speed. So there are other positive possible outcomes to consider when bunting.
If McCoy was hitting .220 with some pop, I’d understand it a bit. But his hits have almost all been seeing eye ground balls. Shoot, he had two hits the other day that didn’t travel 90 feet. I am too lazy to look it up but I bet his expected BABIP is below his actual batting average. It certainly isn’t much higher.
It was a VERY bad choice on Shildt’s part. And would have been even if McCoy managed to do something good.
I love Shildt but man, that was bad. Margins matter.
Ok- I did just a bit of research. His xBA is .203. Against Logan Webb, it’s gotta be below that by a wide margin. His xSLG is .240. 🤮 Having hope that he’d get on base or even a hit was foolish. Spray chart shows that 5 of his 10 hits didn’t leave the infield (or maybe hit the ground first in the infield, I’m not sure.)
Love these post-series recaps.
My take on McCoy’s AB:
1) pinch hitting for him had the highest expected value.
2) having him bunt was the right “risk averse” or conservative choice.
3) having him swing away was risky given his propensity to hit GB AND the fact that Logan Freaking Webb was on the mound, the master
of getting hitters to hit GBs.
Given the actual players involved, the expected values and probability of outcomes was worse than the average data tells us.
If you aren’t going to pinch hit, have him bunt. Move two runners over and you have Arraez hitting with two outs. (Or, if the bunt fails, you still have first and second with Arraez up.) And Arraez is hitting well, including that game vs Webb. So, the probable outcome there is BETTER than the averages.
The aggressive play is to pinch hit with a capable hitter. An acceptable choice regardless of the outcome, even if that hitter hits into a DP.
The most conservative play (bunt to move runners over into scoring position AND to ensure your best two out hitter who is on a heater and seeing the ball well that day gets a high leverage AB) is an acceptable choice regardless of the outcome.
Letting a very poor MLB hitter with a 60% ground ball rate (and given it’s against Logan Webb, it’s probably 65%+ plus probability in reality), is the worst possible choice regardless of the outcome.
Even bunting puts pressure on the Giants to execute, esp with McCoy’s bunting skills and speed. So there are other positive possible outcomes to consider when bunting.
If McCoy was hitting .220 with some pop, I’d understand it a bit. But his hits have almost all been seeing eye ground balls. Shoot, he had two hits the other day that didn’t travel 90 feet. I am too lazy to look it up but I bet his expected BABIP is below his actual batting average. It certainly isn’t much higher.
It was a VERY bad choice on Shildt’s part. And would have been even if McCoy managed to do something good.
I love Shildt but man, that was bad. Margins matter.
Ok- I did just a bit of research. His xBA is .203. Against Logan Webb, it’s gotta be below that by a wide margin. His xSLG is .240. 🤮 Having hope that he’d get on base or even a hit was foolish. Spray chart shows that 5 of his 10 hits didn’t leave the infield (or maybe hit the ground first in the infield, I’m not sure.)
Grrrrr.
Small nit: we are 81-64, not 65. Great writeup per usual!
Thanks! Fine toothed comb and all that. Fixed.