Great stuff as always, this was a phenomenal game with a ton of crucial strategic moments and I was hoping I would see you break it down. Regarding the challenges though, my understanding of the extra innings challenge rules is that you only get an extra challenge in an extra inning if you're out of them entering that inning: https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-mlb-2026. I was surprised when the ump pretty clearly said the Padres had 3 and it only reinforced my perception that he was all over the place, but maybe I'm missing something.
It does seem pretty clear that the umpire got that wrong about the Padres having 3 ABS challenges. The best official information I could find comes from MLB press releases, nothing about ABS appears in the "Official Baseball Rules 2026 Edition" pdf. From the press releases "In each extra inning, a team will be awarded a challenge if it has none remaining entering the inning."
First of all…”Castro still hasn’t touched home plate.”
Secondly, Jake and Tatis sacrifice bunting is concerning, especially Jake. He had a canyon on the left side of the infield through which he could have gotten a single. Plus, with Campy running, it would take a perfect bunt to get him over. And even if Jake got him over, Campy running takes away the contact play on a grounder and requires a deeper fly ball to score him.
Bad strategy that didn’t optimize win probability given the specific context.
Great discussion about how it was smart for Campy to use the ABS challenge in that circumstance even though he turned out to be wrong.
Fernando had an opportunity to challenge in the 8th inning where the 3-0 pitch was called a strike and it seemed like he wanted to pull the trigger and instead went for the fake helmet adjustment rather than tap. He walked anyway after the count went 3-2, then tagged up at 1st on a fly ball and almost willed his way around the bases to score the winning run in a one run game, just like in Pittsburgh last year. Alas, he got picked off at 2nd. In that situation, is it better for Fernando to challenge and get the walk, or keep the at bat going and get more swings in a good hitters count?
Great stuff as always, this was a phenomenal game with a ton of crucial strategic moments and I was hoping I would see you break it down. Regarding the challenges though, my understanding of the extra innings challenge rules is that you only get an extra challenge in an extra inning if you're out of them entering that inning: https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-mlb-2026. I was surprised when the ump pretty clearly said the Padres had 3 and it only reinforced my perception that he was all over the place, but maybe I'm missing something.
It does seem pretty clear that the umpire got that wrong about the Padres having 3 ABS challenges. The best official information I could find comes from MLB press releases, nothing about ABS appears in the "Official Baseball Rules 2026 Edition" pdf. From the press releases "In each extra inning, a team will be awarded a challenge if it has none remaining entering the inning."
Love the recap.
First of all…”Castro still hasn’t touched home plate.”
Secondly, Jake and Tatis sacrifice bunting is concerning, especially Jake. He had a canyon on the left side of the infield through which he could have gotten a single. Plus, with Campy running, it would take a perfect bunt to get him over. And even if Jake got him over, Campy running takes away the contact play on a grounder and requires a deeper fly ball to score him.
Bad strategy that didn’t optimize win probability given the specific context.
Brilliant, and gloriously written.
Great discussion about how it was smart for Campy to use the ABS challenge in that circumstance even though he turned out to be wrong.
Fernando had an opportunity to challenge in the 8th inning where the 3-0 pitch was called a strike and it seemed like he wanted to pull the trigger and instead went for the fake helmet adjustment rather than tap. He walked anyway after the count went 3-2, then tagged up at 1st on a fly ball and almost willed his way around the bases to score the winning run in a one run game, just like in Pittsburgh last year. Alas, he got picked off at 2nd. In that situation, is it better for Fernando to challenge and get the walk, or keep the at bat going and get more swings in a good hitters count?
Challenging 3-0 would not be a smart decision, even challenging 3-1 would be questionable. You get another pitch to possibly put in play.