Nice analysis, I didn't realize the extra inn pitching defect. Excuse me if you also touched on this but the Pads lead (led) MLB in BB and just by the eye-test, when Billy Beane asks "Do I care how they get on base", the answer should be YES !! These walks aren't scoring runs, you need hits or at least grounders to move them (non BL situations). Soto's an interesting extreme, a #3 that walks a lot - did he exacerbate our situation? Is he properly being accounted for in RISP averages ie when he had the chance did he knock in the run (or just walk). Lastly we have the best Pitching ERA in the NL, prob the best Pads season in years. Is that masking how absolutely terrible our hitting is? Why isn't anyone talking about our lights out Pitching? This has been a crazy season of absolute extremes, but maybe points out some weaknesses in analytics because this team SEEMS to be designed properly.
If you run the numbers for all 3,000 teams *through 119 games*, I'm sure you'd find some teams which were worse performing at this point in the season. (They probably end up pretty low on the list anyway, but there's a major statistical difference between being the worst through 162 and the worst through 119 with a built-in assumption that the remaining 43 games precisely extend the trend.)
The broader point about being consistently bad in these situations is a valid one, however, and player valuation may be a part. But I'd lean more towards approach, whatever that contains [ie. pitches/location to look for, general goal (contact, power, etc.), late game decisions], rather than luck or roster composition.
Ya totally agree, approach seems the most likely explanation for year over year trends, and would align well with TTO philosophy being pushed strongly within the org
Great article, love the analysis. I would be very interested to see the correlation of clutch hitting with wins as compared to ERA and WRC+, i.e. is it more important to have good process or to be clutch? General baseball strategy the past couple decades seems to lean towards the former: get to the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may. And I think (hope) it’s fairly obvious that good process will trump the clutch factor in most instances, but i wouldn’t be surprised if the industry is undervaluing it.
It would be interesting to apply the same analysis and compare the other pads seasons you mention in clutch situations. Star vs scrub relief innings, tto style hitting vs small ball etc. What was different about last year and are there similarities for the other un-clutch years?
Nice analysis, I didn't realize the extra inn pitching defect. Excuse me if you also touched on this but the Pads lead (led) MLB in BB and just by the eye-test, when Billy Beane asks "Do I care how they get on base", the answer should be YES !! These walks aren't scoring runs, you need hits or at least grounders to move them (non BL situations). Soto's an interesting extreme, a #3 that walks a lot - did he exacerbate our situation? Is he properly being accounted for in RISP averages ie when he had the chance did he knock in the run (or just walk). Lastly we have the best Pitching ERA in the NL, prob the best Pads season in years. Is that masking how absolutely terrible our hitting is? Why isn't anyone talking about our lights out Pitching? This has been a crazy season of absolute extremes, but maybe points out some weaknesses in analytics because this team SEEMS to be designed properly.
If you run the numbers for all 3,000 teams *through 119 games*, I'm sure you'd find some teams which were worse performing at this point in the season. (They probably end up pretty low on the list anyway, but there's a major statistical difference between being the worst through 162 and the worst through 119 with a built-in assumption that the remaining 43 games precisely extend the trend.)
The broader point about being consistently bad in these situations is a valid one, however, and player valuation may be a part. But I'd lean more towards approach, whatever that contains [ie. pitches/location to look for, general goal (contact, power, etc.), late game decisions], rather than luck or roster composition.
Great point about 119 being far more prone to random variation than 162 (or 154).
Pray for mean regression
Ya totally agree, approach seems the most likely explanation for year over year trends, and would align well with TTO philosophy being pushed strongly within the org
Great article, love the analysis. I would be very interested to see the correlation of clutch hitting with wins as compared to ERA and WRC+, i.e. is it more important to have good process or to be clutch? General baseball strategy the past couple decades seems to lean towards the former: get to the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may. And I think (hope) it’s fairly obvious that good process will trump the clutch factor in most instances, but i wouldn’t be surprised if the industry is undervaluing it.
It would be interesting to apply the same analysis and compare the other pads seasons you mention in clutch situations. Star vs scrub relief innings, tto style hitting vs small ball etc. What was different about last year and are there similarities for the other un-clutch years?