The first inning bunts and bunting a runner from first to second with nobody out drives me insane. 6-2 is hard to argue with, but by the same account correlation does not always mean causation. The run expectancy matrices have a much larger sample size than the Padres individual bunt outcomes, and those numbers don’t lie. But like Craig says on Padres Hot Tub, the tin foil conspiracy theory is that Arraez figures his average doesn’t go down when he sac bunts.😂
Whoever works the analytics department for the Padres is either banging their head against a wall, or being paid for their silence.
"Why do we bunt so much? Well, I don't know what to say, I guess I'll answer the question because you asked it, but we bunt to win. (chuckles) Don't know what you want to say about 6-2, but that's a record a lot of teams would take, 'cuz."
Thanks Arch. I took great interest in your article about Fred Fermin being an excellent bunter and that bunting is a lost art. We have seen Fred use his bunting prowess successfully a number of times since coming over to the Pads and it is enjoyable to see him deploy his skill. Love the blog. Keep up the good work.
I think we bunt so much because Schildt believes in it. Managers do a lot of things and I have trouble quantifying their impact but keeping the guys motivated and managing pitching does seem like good things he does. Keeping Arraez at #2 and bunting so much may be the sour part of the bundle, so both accept and hate it.
Also, any of those Arraez bunts ambiguous whether they are attempts at hits or not? Sometimes I see him bunting but does appear as though he is trying to get a hit. Given his speed and his tendencies (presumably informing the defensive positioning), seems a fool's errand, but looks like he is trying to get a hit some portion of the time.
I believe Craig Elsten’s theory that some of the motivation is the anomalous convention of omitting sac bunts from At Bat and OBP calculations so every sac bunt attempt is both a sacrifice and an attempt at a hit.
I also think if you’re going to sac bunt and have the skill to try to drop it for a hit that’s the best approach.
Can you post the pitcher with the inning along with the score at the time of the bunt and the pitch count? It would also be interesting to see the number 3 and 4 hitters batting average with RISP. Also what is the run expectancy after a GIDP? What is Laureano's GB rate for the different innings vs Arraez GB rate? What about run expectancy in a straight steal vs a hit and run or a run and hit? Can those be broken out by inning? Do the numbers go up or down compared to a bunt attempt? Now factor in a strikeout for all of those different bunt attempts and all the other scenarios I've mentioned. Removing Arraez from the #2 spot raises the possibility of a strike out thrower out double play. So you have to factor in the catcher and how that will effect the run expectancy.
Another master class . Open up paid subscriptions please, I feel guilty reading your gems for free
The first inning bunts and bunting a runner from first to second with nobody out drives me insane. 6-2 is hard to argue with, but by the same account correlation does not always mean causation. The run expectancy matrices have a much larger sample size than the Padres individual bunt outcomes, and those numbers don’t lie. But like Craig says on Padres Hot Tub, the tin foil conspiracy theory is that Arraez figures his average doesn’t go down when he sac bunts.😂
Whoever works the analytics department for the Padres is either banging their head against a wall, or being paid for their silence.
"Why do we bunt so much? Well, I don't know what to say, I guess I'll answer the question because you asked it, but we bunt to win. (chuckles) Don't know what you want to say about 6-2, but that's a record a lot of teams would take, 'cuz."
I can hear this quote
Me too🤣
Terrific work, as always!
You are doing the lord's work, my friend.
Thanks Arch. I took great interest in your article about Fred Fermin being an excellent bunter and that bunting is a lost art. We have seen Fred use his bunting prowess successfully a number of times since coming over to the Pads and it is enjoyable to see him deploy his skill. Love the blog. Keep up the good work.
I think we bunt so much because Schildt believes in it. Managers do a lot of things and I have trouble quantifying their impact but keeping the guys motivated and managing pitching does seem like good things he does. Keeping Arraez at #2 and bunting so much may be the sour part of the bundle, so both accept and hate it.
Also, any of those Arraez bunts ambiguous whether they are attempts at hits or not? Sometimes I see him bunting but does appear as though he is trying to get a hit. Given his speed and his tendencies (presumably informing the defensive positioning), seems a fool's errand, but looks like he is trying to get a hit some portion of the time.
I believe Craig Elsten’s theory that some of the motivation is the anomalous convention of omitting sac bunts from At Bat and OBP calculations so every sac bunt attempt is both a sacrifice and an attempt at a hit.
I also think if you’re going to sac bunt and have the skill to try to drop it for a hit that’s the best approach.
Can you post the pitcher with the inning along with the score at the time of the bunt and the pitch count? It would also be interesting to see the number 3 and 4 hitters batting average with RISP. Also what is the run expectancy after a GIDP? What is Laureano's GB rate for the different innings vs Arraez GB rate? What about run expectancy in a straight steal vs a hit and run or a run and hit? Can those be broken out by inning? Do the numbers go up or down compared to a bunt attempt? Now factor in a strikeout for all of those different bunt attempts and all the other scenarios I've mentioned. Removing Arraez from the #2 spot raises the possibility of a strike out thrower out double play. So you have to factor in the catcher and how that will effect the run expectancy.
But ya, bunts are bad.