Since the All-Star break the Padres are 19-4. That stretch started with series wins against the first place Guardians and the first place Orioles, and series sweeps against the for-some-reason-revenge-thirsty Nationals, and the first place Dodgers. The past 12 games have been an easier stretch on paper, exactly the type of stretch Padres fans classically dread: teams that should be beatable, the dregs of the league. Trap games. But unlike so many times in the past, the Padres took care of business. They went 10-2 in series against the Rockies, the Marlins, and the Pirates. It wasn’t easy. They needed every bullpen arm along the way, and late game heroics time and again. But they got it done. And this is one of a hallmarks of a good team; beating the bad teams. Here’s the whole of their work in this stretch:
Wildly successful. And it’s fair to ask what might be behind such a torrid stretch for a team that went into the All-Star break essentially a .500 team.
Lessons Learned
Part of what’s contributing to the Padres success is the knowledge they’ve accrued through the first half of the season. At the start of the season Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos were coming off back-to-back highly effective seasons in relief and appeared to be part of the Padres high leverage plans. As the season went by it was apparent they were simply ineffective in that role. The bullpen clearly got much better at the trade deadline, but it also improved through better understanding of how to deploy the arms. They’ve been able to make much better bullpen decisions in the second half both by virtue of having better arms available, and knowing the strengths/weaknesses of the players on the roster. And that has won them several games.
In addition to the team understanding its component parts better, it has also been getting better versions of some of its already productive assets.
King’s Emergence
Michael King has completely shaken off a strange first month of the season:
He’s held opponents to a 3.19 ERA on the season and struck out 161 batters in in a career high 135.1 innings. Spectacular results. His ability to get incredible run on his sinker and changeup has been well chronicled, and it’s tempting to think of him as a Greg Maddux type finesse pitcher. But he showed a little something extra in the first at bat of the game against Pittsburgh Tuesday:
That’s just gas. McCutchen was blown away. King struck out 10 Pirates across six shutout innings the rest of the way. He walked none. He’s fully become the ace he was projected to be when he was the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade. He’s going to get at least some down-ballot Cy Young votes.
Merrill’s Ascension
Jackson Merrill played well enough in the first half of the season to make the All-Star team. But in the second half he’s elevated his game. In the second half he’s been a superstar:
He’s been the most impactful rookie in major league baseball, and as is often the case with tremendously talented young players, he’s been getting better as he accrues more experience.
Machado’s Return
Manny Machado never left, but his second half has felt like a return of the vintage player. Machado clearly started the year stiff, in pain, still recovering from elbow surgery, and it affected him on the field. He has been hitting the ball hard all year, but struggled to get healthy launch angles at the plate in the first half. We wrote about signs that he’s making significance progress since then, and indeed his second half average launch angle has been 14 degrees which is in line with his career average. There’s a particular 2nd half at bat that seemed to be a declaration that he’d figured something out:
That’s a sinking changeup down on the outer half of the plate that Machado drives to the pull-side 105 MPH with a 19 degree launch angle. That’s special plate coverage and tremendous hitting on a very good pitch.
It’s interesting to look at his 1st and 2nd half splits at the plate.
What you can see is that his batting average and on base percentage are almost identical. But his slugging is significantly up. And this is what improving launch angle is supposed to do; a few would-be singles become doubles and a few line drives get enough lift to become home runs. You have about the same number of hits but the extra-base hit percentage is improved. His 2nd half performance looks very similar to his career slash line of .279/.338/.487.
Defense is a similar story. He still rates as a negative on the season by Outs Above Average (OAA). But it’s important to remember OAA is a counting stat. So his early struggles are still populating the overall OAA score. But it’s been improving, a lot. He’s still at -3 OAA on the season, but the breakdown is really interesting:
Moving laterally towards third base is the largest contributor to his negative OAA on the season. And he just hasn’t seemed to struggle with this play in the second half:
That was a rangy play and one that showed off his surgically repaired throwing elbow. It does not seem to be bothering him. After a slow start Machado appears to be back to being a weapon on defense:
Raising The Floor
The most understated trade deadline acquisition was Martin Perez, a journeyman and former All-Star left hander who took Adam Mazur’s slot in the rotation when Mazur was traded for Tanner Scott. A theme of the 2024 roster construction that has stood out starkly is the focus on managing downside risk by filling the edges of the roster with competent veterans. Perez has been stellar since being acquired, pitching to a 1.96 ERA across 18.1 innings with 21 strikeouts. And he’s a fun pitcher to watch:
Courtesy: @PitchingNinja
It’s not likely that he’ll continue to pitch to 1.96 ERA, but he’s clearly a major leaguer and that can’t yet be said of the very talented Mazur. When looking for reasons for the Padres second half surge the Perez for Mazur substitution can’t be overlooked.
Joe Musgrove also made a return this week pitching 4.1 innings of shutout ball against the Pirates Monday. His return continues to be a challenge prognostically. His velocity and spin rates looked healthy:
Still, he struck out only one batter, and his entire year’s injury saga has little similar precedent. If he’s able to return to form that would portend well for the Padres ability to maintain their second half success. But it should be noted that they largely accomplished their success so far without him. Musgrove is a tremendously luxury if he’s truly back. If he falters, the team should be able to recover.
A Missing Piece
It’s officially mid-August, which is when the team is expected to give an update about the possibility Fernando Tatis Jr could return to play. The incredible post All-Star break success has come in Tatis’ absence, out with an injury since June 21st. In fact there’s a strange coincidence to note: from June 21st on the team with the best record in baseball is the Padres at 30-13. The Padres are not a better team without Tatis in the lineup. They’ve achieved this success despite his absence not because of it. Bryce Johnson and David Peralta have filled in admirably. They are floor raisers. Tatis’ return would raise the ceiling of what this team could accomplish. He suffered a femoral stress reaction possibly as early as March and played through it for nearly three months. Stress reactions are a mercurial injury that can sideline athletes for 12 weeks or longer depending on the severity. There’s a clinical pearl on stress reaction recovery:
A good rule of thumb is however long an injury takes to become pain-free, the same amount of additional time is needed to perform a graduated return to activity.
It seems likely we’ll get an update on Tatis this week or next. And if he’s been pain free for quite some time, and the MRI evidence of the stress reaction has resolved, there’s the possibility he’ll suit up again soon. There’s a possibility that the team with the best record in baseball over the past two months is going to add an all-world right fielder. They shouldn’t rush him if there is any doubt about his physical fitness to return to duty. Stress reactions are not injuries that should be played through; they relentlessly get worse. Rest and a return to homeostasis are the path to resolution. And the upside of the Padres winning so many games without Tatis is the luxury to take their time, ensure he’s fully ready when he returns. Tatis is not a normal human being, he’s a generational athlete. It’s entirely possible he could make a healthy return faster than a mere mortal would. It would really be remarkable to see what a Padres lineup with Tatis back in right field could do down the stretch. But his health comes first.
Into Thin Air
The Padres second half surge has been a marvel to watch. They’ve had wild success across the most crucial stretch of the season to date. But it’s fair to note they’re not alone. The Diamondbacks are in a dead heat for the top wild card spot, and there are still at least six teams credibly vying for three wild card spots. The Diamondbacks just swept the Rockies, and unlike the scholar/athlete/virtuoso performance the Rockies show the Padres, the Rockies’ performance against the Diamondbacks was hapless and embarrassing:
It’s really not possible to explain why a team like the Rockies, that rolls over in this way for other divisional contenders, throws nothing but haymakers when they play the Padres. That’s just the way it is. And the Padres should expect no different this weekend as they return to altitude to face the Rockies at home for a critical three game series. The extreme altitude, thin air, and cavernous dimensions of Coors Field create a funhouse mirror version of baseball where pitches don’t move like they should, fly balls sail forever, and outfielders have a ludicrous amount of ground to try to cover. It injects chaos into a game where luck is already a factor that looms large. We wondered if the lack of break on pitches in Coors Field may have contributed to Wandy Peralta’s meltdown April 25th as part of a six run bottom of the eighth comeback for the Rockies who beat the Padres 10-9 that day in what was a quintessential Coors Field game. Something interesting we learned that series is that there’s one pitch that does seem to break quite a bit at altitude, a surprising one:
It’s hard to say if the knuckleball moves more in Coors Field, but it certainly was dancing in Matt Waldron’s first start there this season:
Courtesy: @PitchingNinja
Waldron makes his second start at Coors Field Friday to open a crucial series against the Rockies. Godspeed.